A few years ago, the German professor of intellectual property law Tim Dornis was on sabbatical in California when the General-Secretary of the German Association for Intellectual Property Law (GRUR) contacted him.

"He said, 'We're about to see a very important development in Geneva that we need to have a look at. Because it could be something groundbreaking.'"

Geneva is home to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), a United Nations agency that promotes and protects intellectual property (IP) across the world. IP law deals with the legal protection and ownership rights for things people create with their minds, like inventions, art and writing.

So Dornis, who had represented GRUR at WIPO conferences in recent years, went to Switzerland and started digging into what was happening at WIPO.  

"And then I realized that this could really be groundbreaking," he told DW.

Between May 13 and May 24, a diplomatic conference in Geneva is set to forge an agreement on an "international legal instrument" that seeks to "enhance the efficacy, transparency and quality of the patent system." 

According to a WIPO press release, the instrument aims to "prevent patents from being granted erroneously for inventions that are not novel or inventive with regard to genetic resources and traditional knowledge associated with genetic resources."

Half a century in the making

For more than 25 years, developing countries and indigenous peoples have been pushing for IP laws that better protect their local flora, fauna, traditional knowledge and culture from exploitation by outside parties.

In recent years, calls have grown louder for greater accountability from companies that use the traditional knowledge or cultural heritage of foreign countries or indigenous cultures.

Fashion brands have been called out for using traditional patterns in their clothing lines, and pharmaceutical companies have come under scrutiny for turning a medicinal plant into a drug they can sell. Critics of the practice call it cultural appropriation or, when it's dealing with the use of genetic resources like plants, biopiracy. 

"[This knowledge] doesn't really fit into the framework of the existing IP system, such as the patent system or the copyright system," Wend Wendland, director of the traditional knowledge division at WIPO, told DW.

But the discussion about legal protections in this realm really took off much earlier, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. This created a new set of international standards for intellectual property rights for all WTO member states to implement. 

In India, for example, the transition to this new system unearthed an unsettling discovery: Other countries, particularly industrialized ones like the US, were filing numerous patents on products that had been part of traditional practices in India for hundreds of years. 

"I mean aspects such as turmeric for wound healing, basmati rice for its fungicide activity and so on," Viswajanani Sattigeri, the head of India's Traditional Knowledge Digital Library (TKDL) unit, told DW. 

Stopping the loss of heritage and knowledge

The problem? When a patent for traditional knowledge is granted to a third party, that party formally becomes the owner of such knowledge, said Sattigeri. "The nation loses its own heritage and its own traditional knowledge." 

But now, that could be changing. In May, WIPO's 193 member states will meet and potentially ratify the first step of a legal instrument aimed at creating greater protections for these assets. 

WIPO has broken them down into three areas that it sees as vulnerable under the current system: genetic resources, traditional knowledge, and traditional cultural expression. Genetic resources are biological materials like plants and animals that contain genetic information, while traditional knowledge encompasses generational wisdom within communities, which is usually passed down orally.

This could include knowledge about biodiversity, food, agriculture, health care and more. Traditional cultural expression includes artistic creations reflecting a group's heritage and identity, like music, art and design. 

"It changes the classic understanding of intellectual property," said Dornis. "It might break the system that [says that] many things are unprotected."

Under current IP law, legal protections for original creations tend to fall away after a certain amount of time has passed. But many traditional practices have evolved and been passed down for hundreds of years or longer, meaning they wouldn't be protected anymore. There also isn't one inventor to give credit to — the knowledge is held communally, and it can be difficult to trace it back to a specific community or region. 

It's easier for a single third party to come in, gain knowledge from the community, and return to their own country, where they can apply for a patent there based on what they've learned.

Dornis said that this makes it possible for developed countries, for the most part, to say "we'll take that and we're not going to reimburse you for it."

"But if you are in need of a pharmaceutical invention and a medical product that is based on their genetic resource or traditional knowledge, you have to pay for the medicine, because it's patent-protected," he said.

Disclosure and compensation

The May meeting will be focused exclusively on genetic resources and efforts to adopt a legal instrument that will require patent applicants in WIPO member states to disclose where they sourced the plant or associated knowledge they want to use, and whether they were given permission to use it. If that treaty passes, the focus will turn to creating clearer definitions for what encompasses traditional knowledge and cultural expression.

This draft legislation law also seeks to create databases like the one Sattigeri runs, where such information can be tracked. India's TKDL, which was the first of its kind globally, has spent decades transcribing and translating information from traditional Indian texts — many written in Sanskrit — into its database, creating a record of the country's traditional knowledge for patent officers to consult. 

"We targeted the Indian systems of medicine, namely Ayurveda and Unani," she said. "Also, what kind of yoga practices there are. And a wealth of information related to health, including animal and plant health, and also cosmetics."

When reviewing a patent application, patent officers can consult these kinds of databases to see if anything similar already exists. The databases will also help countries keep track of patents that draw on knowledge or resources mined within their borders. 

Countries rich in biodiversity have been asking for such disclosure requirements and databases for decades. This new agreement, if passed, won't create new compensation requirements. But existing environmental law already requires any financial benefits made from an invention to be shared with the country of origin. So stronger disclosure laws could lead to greater financial compensation for these countries. 

WIPO's Wendland said many developing countries see the regulation as "a significant step forward."

"That's why it's important for them. It is very technical, but it has a long history and it has a lot of symbolism for many countries, especially those in the developing world."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

German exports rose by 0.9% in March over the previous month, according to figures released on Tuesday by Germany's federal statistics office, Destatis.

The rate of increase, which resulted in a 1.2% rise in comparison with last year, was unexpected, with economists consulted by Reuters news agency predicting export growth of just 0.4%.

Despite the March growth, exports as a whole in the fourth quarter contracted.

From January to March 2024, German-made goods with a total value of €402.2 billion ($422 billion) were exported, which is 1.1% less than in the same period last year, the office said. 

What else did Destatis say?

The export rise to €134.1 billion ($1.44 billion) was driven largely by demand from the US and China.

Exports to the US grew by 3.6% and those to China by 3.7%. Those rises were counterbalanced by a fall of 3.8% in exports to Britain.

Germany's exports to its EU neighbors grew by 0.5%, totaling €73.3 billion.

Imports also rose for the third month in a row, increasing by 0.3% on February to €111.9 billion, though this was 3% down on the same period last year. The foreign trade surplus was around €22 billion.

Overall, Germany's economy has seen slight growth of 0.2% in the first quarter.

In March, several German economic institutes cut their 2024 growth forecast for Germany to 0.1%.

 tj/wmr (dpa, Reuters)

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.

 

In February 2019, Somesh Jha, an Indian journalist who used to work for the Business Standard newspaper, got his hands on a "smoking gun" of a story. 

Jha found out that an official survey had flagged shocking levels of unemployment in the country, but the authorities had chosen not to publish the findings, which had been made by the federal government's statistics department.

The newspaper published the report showing that India's unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in 2017-18. That is the highest unemployment percentage for India in the previous 45 years.

It is well known that post 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent lockdowns imposed across the globe caused a dent in employment worldwide.

But the 2017-18 data data was from the pre-COVID era.

At the time, this would have been bad news for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has painstakingly crafted the image of his government as one that has taken India to unprecedented heights of economic growth.

High economic growth but insufficient jobs

Modi has often been blamed for what is now known as "demonetization," a drastic move in 2016 to ban all high-value currency notes in circulation at the time. The measure affected almost everyone in the country and the resulting cash crunch hit the economy hard and killed many jobs, according to economists. 

After denying the Business Standard report for months, Modi's government finally released unemployment figures in May 2019, which confirmed what the newspaper had claimed in February that year.

Five years later, India's labor market situation continues to be precarious, despite the Modi administration's efforts to accelerate economic development. 

Over the last three years, the government has stepped up spending on roads, bridges and other infrastructure as a way to boost the economy and create jobs.

But these efforts to create jobs remain inadequate.

According to latest government estimates, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in the fiscal year that ended March 2023, from 4.9% in 2013/14 before Modi took over. In urban areas, the rate is higher at 6.5%.

Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private think tank, show that the jobless rate rose to 8% in February 2024.

"The problem of unemployment is indeed a huge one. There is unanimous opinion that there has not been any kind of improvement in overall employment scenario," said Praveen Jha, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Youth unemployment rate a big worry

Many experts say they're particularly worried about the high youth unemployment rate.

Nearly 16% of urban youth in the 15-29 age group remained jobless in 2022-23 due to poor skills and lack of quality jobs, government data shows.

Estimates by private agencies are much higher. According to the CMIE, for instance, the youth unemployment rate stood at as high as 45.4%.

A recent report published jointly by the International Labor Organization and the Institute for Human Development (IHD), an Indian think tank, revealed that one in three young people in the South Asian nation was neither in education nor in employment or training.

It also pointed out that higher educated young people are more likely to be unemployed than those without any schooling.

The jobless rate for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write, the ILO/IHD report said. The unemployment rate for young people with secondary or higher education was six times higher at 18.4%.

Ravi Srivastava, director of the Center for Employment Studies at IHD, led the team that published the joint report.

He told DW that youth joblessness is at the heart of India's unemployment problem.

"The rest of it is underemployment, or what we call disguised unemployment, where people are working but are getting very low wages or working for very few days. But as far as open unemployment is concerned, the bulk of it is youth unemployment."

Demographic dividend or liability?

The lack of sufficient well-paying jobs poses a huge challenge to the nation's leadership as millions of young people enter the labor market every year.

While PM Modi and others talk of a "demographic dividend" of more workers, experts caution that the dividend could turn into a "liability" if the economy failed to create enough jobs to absorb the labor influx.

Arun Kumar, an economist, said his calculations indicate that there is a backlog of around 280 million jobs in the country. Adding to that, about 24 million young people are entering the workforce every year, he told DW.

"But the country ends up generating a measly half a million jobs in the organized sector, while all other jobs fall in the unorganized sector," he told DW.

Against this backdrop, unemployment remains one of the top concerns on voters' minds as they cast their ballots in the ongoing general election, which is being held in seven phases between April 19 and June 1, with vote counting on June 4.

In April, 62% of respondents of a poll by New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that finding a job is more difficult now than it was in the past. And 27% said unemployment was an important issue for them when deciding who to vote for in the elections.

The ruling BJP, however, has largely avoided discussing the issue during the election campaign.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal, the BJP's spokesperson on economic affairs, did not respond to DW's requests for comment.

The main opposition alliance, however, has tried to galvanize voters focusing on unemployment and other economic and social issues.

Now both sides are anxiously waiting for the day when the results of the election will be announced to find out whose pitch the voters have accepted.

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Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

Ulrike Holzgrabe believes China wouldn't need an atomic bomb to deal a fatal blow to Europe. Just stopping its supplies of antibiotics would also do the trick, the professor for pharmaceutical and medicinal chemistry at Würzburg University in southern Germany told DW.

Europe's huge shortage of medical masks during the coronavirus pandemic has laid bare the continent's vulnerability to ensuring a steady supply of basic medicinal products. In 2020, the European Parliament stated in a report that public health could be a "geopolitical weapon that can bring down an entire continent."

The European Union has since attempted to identify the types of medicines it can only source from outside the bloc, notably from China. Holzgrabe said this effort needs to be intensified with a database on which company produces what and who provides the precursor chemicals for drug production.

Cut-throat competition and trade secrets

Establishing a precise pharmaceutical database is where the problem already begins, says Jasmina Kirchhoff from the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, Germany. Information on the manufacturers of chemicals and other downstream ingredients are "well-kept trade secrets," the pharma business expert told DW.

It's critical for manufacturers to keep market advantages secret from competitors, especially in the generics sector. Generics are pharmaceutical drugs that contain the same chemical substance as a drug that was formerly protected by chemical patents.

The success of generic drugmakers depends on low prices, which means that supply chains are often "very complex, and making it unclear how many companies in which countries are involved," Kirchhoff said.

Regarding antibiotics, the IW researcher noted that China recognized "as early as the 1980s" how important it is to have its own antibiotic production. "There was massive investment in those factories that could produce at the lowest costs — first for the domestic market, and then the surplus output was exported," Kirchhoff added.

In addition to China, which has also become the largest producer of chemical precursor products for the global pharmaceutical market, India has emerged as a major supplier of pharmaceutical products.

National Pharma Strategy: Germany's reshoring initiative

As part of efforts to boost the domestic pharmaceutical industry, the German government adopted a strategy paper in December 2023 identifying three key areas to be strengthened. The goals include, first of all, unbureaucratic approvals for clinical trials with medicinal products. Secondly, easier access to health data for research purposes. And finally, incentives for setting up more manufacturing sites in the country.

Germany is still a major player in the global pharma market and home to leading companies such as Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim and Merck Group. However, they are strong in the market for innovative, patented medications but weak in the generics market, said Holzgrabe, adding that generics production in Europe is hardly profitable due to low profit margins. 

But generics are crucial for public health care in general, as they cover about 80% of basic medication needs, including many antibiotics.

Bork Bretthauer criticizes the government's strategy to boost domestic investments with subsidies. The CEO of Pro Generika — a German nonprofit that regularly commissions scientific studies into health policy and the pharma sector — told DW that Germany needs "a different pricing system" for drugs.

"We don't need zombie factories in Europe that need to be permanently subsidized," he said, adding that Europeans must be willing to pay higher drug prices.

Big Pharma needs big incentives

In the summer of last year, the German parliament adopted legislation aimed at incentivizing the German pharma industry to reshore production or at least stop relocating abroad, with higher drug prices. The law was also a result of drug shortages and supply bottlenecks that had emerged during the global pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It is a major healthcare policy change because Germany had sought to keep public health costs as low as possible until last year.

Previously, drugmakers were forced to offer statutory health insurance companies their medications at capped prices. So prices were fixed for about 80% of medications, including generic drugs, meaning that only the most cost-effective drug firms could make a profit.

Under the new legislation, insurance companies' drug tenders for specific active ingredients and off-patent medications must also award contracts to a European company.

Ulrike Holzgrabe believes the legislation is a step in the right direction, but fears it will come to nothing because there is "simply no European production left," especially in the generics sector. Jasmina Kirchhoff says the law has at least helped prevent more production from moving abroad.

China's unassailable dominance

Wolfgang Große Entrup, managing director of the Association of the German Chemical Industry (VCI), thinks higher drug prices are inevitable if Europe wants more security. But production in Europe will never be as cheap as in Asia, he said in April. The German pharma industry, in particular, would suffer from "excessive bureaucracy, skilled labor shortages, high energy costs, and crumbling infrastructure."

Holzgrabe shares this view, adding that Chinese drugmakers, by contrast, benefit from lower labor and energy costs and cost-free land allowances from the government when they establish production facilities. Moreover, they don't have to comply with environmental regulations as strict as those in Europe.

All of this, she said, would make it difficult to bring pharmaceutical production back to Europe so that "independence from China won't be achieved."

This article was originally written in German.

Israel's allies have ramped up the pressure in recent weeks to allow more aid into Gaza to avert a worsening humanitarian crisis. But few have so far imposed sanctions on the Middle Eastern country, or boycotted products from Israel.

DW looks at what measures a handful of countries and activist movements have taken.

Turkey raises the stakes

In its first significant measure against Israel since the war began, Turkey has announced it will not resume trade with Israel,worth $7 billion (€6.52 billion) a year, until a permanent cease-fire and humanitarian aid are secured in Gaza.

Israel's "uncompromising attitude" and the worsening situation in Gaza's southern Rafah region prompted Turkey to halt all exports and imports, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said Friday (May 3).

Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz criticised Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's move, saying it breaks international trade agreements and was "how a dictator behaves".

The militant group Hamas, which rules Gaza, praised the decision as brave and supportive of Palestinian rights.

Trade Minister Polat said Turkey decided to "stop exports and imports to and from Israel" and is negotiating with "our Palestinian brothers on alternative arrangements to ensure that they are not affected by this decision."

In April, Turkey already curbed exports of 54 product categories, including steel, fertilizer and jet fuel, over what it said was Israel's refusal to allow Ankara to take part in aid air-drop operations for Gaza.

All remaining trade, which amounted to $5.4 billion in Turkish exports and $1.6 billion in Israeli imports last year, is now halted. Top Turkish exports to Israel are steel, vehicles, plastics, electrical devices and machinery, while imports are dominated by
fuels at $634 million last year.

Turkish economist and former politician Oguz Oyan told DW that "Ankara was forced to make such a decision." He added that during the local election campaign last month, the Erdogan government "got in trouble owing to its good trade relations with Israel. This affected the behavior of conservative voters."

US, France and UK sanction Israeli settlers

Among major Western powers, only France has mooted the idea of sanctions to pressure Israel to pull back its troops from Gaza and allow more humanitarian aid to reach displaced Palestinians.

"We have multiple ways to utilize our influence; obviously, we can impose more sanctions," Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné told French broadcasters RFI and FRANCE 24 on Tuesday.

Séjourné was referring to very targeted sanctions imposed by the US, Canada, France and UK on settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

In February, the Biden administration named two Israeli outposts and several Israeli settlers it accused of undermining stability in the landlocked territory. The State Department said the outposts had been bases for violence against Palestinians.

The White House also imposed sanctions on multiple Israeli men it accused of being involved in settler violence in the West Bank.

The sanctions typically freeze any US assets of those targeted and generally bar Americans from dealing with them.

Canada, France and the UK imposed similar curbs on several Israeli settlers.

The Biden administration is also planning to require goods produced in West Bank settlements to be clearly marked, the Financial Times reported last week.

In 2019, the European Union's top court ruled that goods from West Bank settlements must be labeled as coming from occupied territory and not imply that they came from Israel.

Chile blocks Israel from aviation fair

The Chilean government informed Israel last month that its companies would be banned from taking part in the 2024 International Air and Space Fair, FIDAE.

Organized by the Chilean Air Force, the fair is regarded as the main aerospace and defense show in Latin America, bringing together exhibitors from more than 40 countries.

As well as the ban, Chile has canceled all cooperation or training activities with Israel on Chilean territory. The government said it would no longer purchase any weapons, defense or security systems from Israel.

In January, Chile asked the International Criminal Court in The Hague to investigate Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied territories.

Israel's tie normalization with Arab states hits the skids

The Israel-Hamas war has halted progress on what is known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which aims to foster integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.

The project will see new rail and shipping links built to counter China's massive Belt and Road (BRI) infrastructure initiative. But IMEC is understood to be on hold while the conflict plays out.

There was hope the IMEC could help speed up the long-awaited rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which the Biden administration hoped would help open the door for other Muslim countries to recognize Israel.

Arab nations have regularly condemned Israel's aggressive tactics against civilians as it seeks to root out the Hamas militant group in Gaza. Riyadh has warned that it would only normalize relations with Israel if there is a two-state solution between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel established ties with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan and Bahrain in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords.

BDS movement urges global sanctions against Israel

Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) is a nonviolent Palestinian-led movement promoting boycotts, divestments and economic sanctions against Israel.

Co-founder Omar Barghouti said BDS drew inspiration from South Africa's anti-apartheid movement.

BDS now has branches in 40 countries and has also advocated a boycott of Israeli sporting, cultural and academic events, calling for pressure on foreign companies that "collaborate" with Israel.

The movement is regularly accused of antisemitism by Israel and the US.

Meanwhile, several apps are helping consumers boycott businesses deemed to be supporting Israel and its war on Gaza.

The apps, including one called Boycat, allow users to scan the barcode of any product and see its links to the Middle Eastern country. The app also offers a choice of products consumers may buy instead.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

This article was updated on May 3, 2024, to include Turkey's announcement of a complete ban of Israeli imports and exports. 

The US Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday (May 1) that it would not be cutting interest rates any time soon was not a surprise.

For the past few months, inflation has crept back up steadily, causing significant headaches for policymakers, central bankers and investors who had been expecting not one but several interest rate cuts over the course of 2024.

The picture is not hugely different in Europe. Germany's inflation rate rose more than expected in April, on the back of strong food and energy prices. That has also reduced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will make several rates cuts this year, as some had anticipated.

This recent data is "not really settling the issue of 'the last mile,'" Francesco Papadia, a senior fellow with the think tank Bruegel and a former director general for market operations at the ECB, told DW. "The news is not bad, but not as good as one may wish."

That last mile he refers to is getting inflation down to a consistent rate of 2%, a goal which has been shared by European and US central bankers since they began tackling the global surge in inflation which began in 2021 and peaked towards the end of 2022.

It leaves the US Fed in a particularly tricky position. "For the Fed, the threshold to raise rates is still greater than the threshold to cut," Diane Swonk, chief economist at consultancy KPMG US, told DW. "But they're starting to both get pretty high."

Inflation returns with a bang

From 2021-23, inflation rates around the world hit their highest levels in decades as the global economy adjusted to various shocks, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine. Central banks responded with aggressive interest rate hikes.

US interest rates are currently at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% while in the eurozone, the ECB is currently holding rates at record highs of between 4% and 4.75%.

"Interest rates are the main tool for the central bank to influence the economy," said Papadia. "The mechanism is simple — if you raise interest rates, investments go down because the cost of funding those investments go up. If you increase interest rates, you affect consumption, as people are then more likely to delay spending."

For central banks devoted to economic stability, "interest rate changes are the most important tool," he added.

That helps explain why the Fed and the ECB are both so cautious at present regarding possible interest rate cuts. In late 2023 and early 2024, inflation rates were edging closer and closer to the stated 2% goal and it appeared inevitable that the aggressive interest-rate policy could be quickly rolled back.

However, with inflation creeping back up, there are fears that rate cuts now could make the problem worse and push inflation even higher.

"It is likely to take longer for us to gain confidence that we are on a sustainable path down to 2% inflation," Fed chair Jerome Powell said during his announcement on Wednesday. "I don't know how long it will take."

It leaves US policymakers in a somewhat awkward holding position, according to Swonk. "They're stuck waiting, and that frustrates financial markets," she said. However, she believes they are extremely wary of cutting too early as evidenced towards the end of 2023, when they did not cut despite falling inflation rates.

"The one thing the Fed has not done is to prematurely cut. It knows that is the biggest cardinal sin," she said. "They will not prematurely cut. They've been down this path before."

European vs. US inflation

In Europe, inflation appeared to be under reasonable control until April inflation data for Germany and Spain were released showing increases of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively compared with March. However, ECB policymakers have strongly suggested they will cut rates for the first time in five years at their June meeting, with eurozone core inflation on the whole slowing to 2.7% in the first quarter of 2024.

In the UK, outside of the EU but still part of the overall European economy, interest rate cuts are also expected soon.

"I wouldn't go as far to say that inflation has been tamed, but the outlook is certainly less concerning than it was in the middle of last year," Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist with Oxford Economics, told DW. "We expect the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates in the summer."

While the European and US inflation situations mirror each other to a certain extent, a key difference according to experts is that European inflation has been largely influenced by energy prices, whereas in the US, surging demand backed by a booming economy has pushed prices back up.

"The situation is different in the United States, and the European economy is just not showing the same degree of buoyancy as the American one," said Papadia.

Swonk agrees and says a key part of the overall story is what she calls the "remarkable resilience" of the US economy, which saw the "fastest deceleration in inflation in nearly 50 years and the longest span of low unemployment figures since the 1960s."

"To think that with all the rate hikes we had, the economy accelerated? That's remarkable resilience and that's good. The hard part is it also came with some heat."

Interest rate hikes?

Now, the big question in the US is whether or not interest rates will actually be increased rather than cut, a situation that seemed unthinkable just a few months ago.

Powell suggested this week that would not be the case, but the stubbornly high inflation seen in recent months continues to cast some doubts.

"It's probably not as bad as it looks, but we won't know until we get into the summer or into the late spring how much this is going to stick or not," said Swonk.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

It may be just a small little detail, but it may manage what the German government hasn't been able to do in the past decade: Invest large-scale in infrastructure.

Since 2011, the country's so-called debt brake has put strict limits on how much fresh borrowing the government can raise annually. It was enshrined in the German constitution in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. However, the limit on excessively raising sovereign debt has curtailed investments in schools, bridges, and the transition to more renewable energy.

The law is contentious among the governing coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens, even though the three-party alliance had convinced parliament to suspend the regulation temporarily during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine.

But German Economy Minister Robert Habeckhas just come up with a scheme that would allow the government to spend on major infrastructure projects without falling foul of the debt-break regulation, which otherwise can only be made undone with the help of the opposition that refuses to play along.

On Friday, a novel mechanism to fund the estimated €20 billion ($21.45 billion) needed for Germany's hydrogen pipeline network passed the last legislative hurdle in Germany's upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat.

Seed funding for hydrogen expansion

Under the new regulation, the government can earmark seed financing for a funding vehicle that will be tasked with building the hydrogen network. The network itself will be operated by a private enterprise of companies that charge users of the hydrogen network fees that must be in total high enough to cover the building costs until 2055.

According to experts, the plan is in compliance with the debt break because the government expects to profit from the investment. Debt under the scheme would be issued by Germany's public investment bank, KfW, rather than by the federal government itself.

"The financing of the [H2] network is a milestone, and I am therefore very pleased that we managed to draft a good piece of legislation here," said Michael Kruse from the liberal FDP.

The new funding vehicle includes a so-called amortization account, a type of bank account with an overdraft option that allows the government to balance income from fees with costs.

Jens Südekum, an economist at Dusseldorf University, says the novel mechanism will enable the government to subsidize initial surcharges for using the network, making it "cheaper for customers to jump on board." In the later stages of the funding, "usage fees would be higher in order to recoup initial subsidies," he told DW.

Industry officials have welcomed the new funding mechanism, saying it would spread the costs over decades while avoiding high hydrogen grid fees for customers.

Who carries the risks of the hydrogen rollout?

Germany plans to import large volumes of the hydrogen it needs to transform sectors such as industry, rail and air transportation. Molecule prices, however, will depend on production costs in countries such as Namibia or Mexico.

Philip Schnaars, head of regulation research at Cologne's Institute of Energy Economics, stresses that hydrogen prices will eventually determine whether the industry will adopt the fuel in the decades to come. He says the huge H2 volumes needed and the long time it takes to build out infrastructure could create uncertainties about whether the project will be viable.

"We are talking here about a period from today to 2055. It is almost impossible to make valid and solid statements about this period," Schnaars told DW.

The entrepreneurial risk for the enterprise running the pipeline network is huge because the government has reserved the right to abandon the funding vehicle if the project turns out unviable. 

"Under the scenario that the hydrogen network will not fly and we're accumulating losses until 2055, who will cover those hypothetical losses?" asked economist Südekum, noting that private investors are expected to cover 25% of the risk under the regulation.

A blueprint for infrastructure financing?

Meanwhile, Habeck is planning to use the new financing mechanism to upgrade Germany's ailing infrastructure.

Habeck recently told Die Zeit, a weekly German newspaper, that the country's electricity grid, which is inadequate for Germany's transition to renewable power and requires €300 billion in investment over the next decades, could be funded in a similar fashion.

Jens Südekum can imagine multiple uses for the funding method: "You could use [the mechanism] big-time for housing. [The state] could borrow to build houses, and later on recover the losses [with] the rent income it will receive."

But Kruse of the FDP, the only party in the government coalition staunchly defending the debt-break limit, warns Habeck against using such funding vehicles too extensively.

"If we should get the impression that this mechanism serves as a model for our coalition partners to circumvent the debt brake in other areas, then we will counter these attempts."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

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Japan is dramatically ramping up its support for the semiconductor industry. Between the financial years 2021 and 2023, which ended on March 31, the country invested 3.9 trillion yen (€23.17 billion, $24.8 billion) in the sector.

That is a higher proportion of its GDP than that invested by the US, Germany, France or the UK over the same period.

Analysts say the Japanese government has been stung into action as a consequence of significant geopolitical changes involving tech in recent years, as well as lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of a worldwide crisis on supply chains that were previously considered to be adequate.

Tokyo has also been motivated to get back into the semiconductor manufacturing business to support domestic industries that consume vast numbers of chips and protect its economy more generally.

Japan's semiconductor investment push

"Semiconductors are one of the most capital-intensive investments, and Japan, after dominating in the 1990s, gradually got out of the sector and left it largely to South Korea and Taiwan," Martin Schulz, chief policy economist for Fujitsu's Global Market Intelligence Unit, told DW.

"But in more recent years, there has been a push from the government because they realized that semiconductors had been neglected and were critically important."

Schulz pointed out that while Japan produced around 50% of all chips in the 1990s, that has now contracted to a mere 9%.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, the Japanese government's funds sunk into the sector accounted for 0.71% of GDP between 2021 and 2023, surpassing the corresponding figures for countries like Germany, which stood at 0.41%, the US, at 0.21% and France, at 0.20%.

And that financial support is expected to continue to grow.

With government financial support amounting to 476 billion yen (€2.81 billion), around one-third of the total cost, industry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) completed a fabrication plant in Kumamoto, southern Japan, in February. Production is expected to commence at the end of the year.

Similarly, Kioxia and Western Digital have jointly built a plant in Yokkaichi, in Mie Prefecture, to produce 3D NAND Flash memory products, with the government contributing 92.9 billion yen in subsidies. The same companies are also building a plant in Iwate Prefecture, in the northeast, which should be operational by the end of the year.

The Trade and Industry Ministry is also supporting domestic chip firm Rapidus to the tune of 590 billion yen to construct a manufacturing facility in Hokkaido in partnership with IBM. The plant is due to start production in 2027.

Japan's sudden but necessary change toward semiconductors

The Japanese government's change in direction has been sudden but necessary, said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at Tokyo University.

"The primary reason is the rising competition in the semiconductor sector, with the government really starting to pay attention to problems in global supply chains during the pandemic," he said.

Industries around the world suddenly found themselves short of chips for everything from cars to microwave ovens, and it dawned on policymakers that as a large percentage of the world's semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan, any emergency in the Taiwan Strait would make Japanese users "vulnerable," he said.

"A shortage in chips would be extremely serious to Tokyo, which moved to attract foreign firms and reshore production to meet the needs of domestic firms."

Japan is also supportive of the US policy of restricting China's access to the most advanced technology, including state-of-the-art microchips, out of concern that it will give its economic rival an edge in AI and other emerging technologies and potentially enable Beijing to develop more advanced weapons.

Japan's history with semiconductors

Japan used to be a world leader in manufacturing chips but opted to focus on the more lucrative development of next-generation semiconductors and the machinery required to make them, leaving the actual fabrication to companies in other countries, Suzuki said.

In 1989, six Japanese electronics companies, including Toshiba, Hitachi, NEC and Fujitsu, were in the top 10 in the world for chip sales before gradually opting to shift away from production.

Some companies attempted to recapture their heyday — NEC and Hitachi set up Elpida Memory in 1999, but it went bankrupt in 2012.

Significantly, the government was not willing to invest to a degree that would guarantee the venture's success.

"But things have changed now, and the government here sees this as perhaps their last opportunity to use the know-how and experience of engineers to revitalize the industry before they retire," Suzuki added.

Rebuilding the sector will require more than fabrication plants, however.

In an editorial published on April 22, the Yomiuri newspaper emphasized the need to educate a new generation of skilled workers to produce even more advanced semiconductors, declaring that stable procurement of the components is "essential to the nation's economic security."

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Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

More than two years since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its gas is still flowing into Europe.

While the European Union has greatly reduced the amount of gas it imports from Russia, the hydrocarbon is still powering some European homes and businesses and boosting Kremlin revenues as a result.

When the war began, European leaders were forced to reckon with a long-established dependence on both Russian gas and oil. Gas was a particular problem, as in 2021, 34% of the EU's gas came from Russia.

Countries in Central and Eastern Europe were especially dependent. When the EU mooted a ban, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was quick to voice his opposition. "Europe has deliberately exempted energy supplies from Russia from sanctions. At the moment, Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way," he said.

Vladimir Putin seized on this.  Throughout 2022, Russia cut gas imports to Europe. European leaders fretted about a winter energy shortage. These fears were never realized, but crucially, they meant the EU never actually sanctioned Russian gas.

"It was never a sanction," says Benjamin Hilgenstock from the Kyiv School of Economics. "It was a voluntary decision by countries, and a smart one, to diversify supply and no longer be blackmailable by Russia," he told DW.

How LNG imports from Russia replaced pipeline gas

According to EU data, the share of Russian pipeline gas member states imported fell from 40% of the total in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. However, when Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is included —  natural gas cooled down to liquid form so it can be transported by ship —  the total share of Russian gas in the EU's total last year was 15%.

A key way the EU reduced its reliance on Russian gas was by increasing LNG imports from countries such as the United States and Qatar. However, this has inadvertently led to a surge of heavily discounted Russian LNG entering the bloc.

According to the data provider Kpler, Russia is now the EU's second-biggest LNG supplier. LNG imports from Russia accounted for 16% of the EU's total LNG supply in 2023, a 40% increase compared with the amount Russia sold to the EU in 2021.

Import volumes in 2023 were slightly down from 2022, but data from the first quarter of 2024 shows that Russian LNG exports to Europe have risen again by 5% year-on-year. France, Spain and Belgium have been particularly big importers. Those three countries accounted for 87% of the LNG that came into the EU in 2023.

Countries want to stop 'trans-shipping' LNG

Yet much of this LNG is not needed by the European market and is being handled at European ports before being reexported to third countries worldwide, with some EU states and companies profiting as a result.

"A lot of the Russian LNG that goes to Europe is just being 'trans-shipped,'" said Hilgenstock. "So that has nothing to do with Europe's natural gas supply. It's just European companies making money facilitating Russian LNG exports."

According to a recent report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), just under a quarter of Europe's LNG imports from Russia (22%) were trans-shipped to global markets in 2023. Petras Katinas, an energy analyst with CREA, told DW that most of this LNG was sold to countries in Asia.

As a result, several EU members, such as Sweden, Finland and the Baltic States, are putting pressure on the bloc to enact a total ban on Russian LNG, a move that would require the agreement of all member states.

EU discussions are currently focused on banning the reexport of Russian LNG from European ports. According to the news agency Bloomberg, the sanctioning of key Russian LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, the UST Luga LNG terminal and the Murmansk plant, is also being considered.

"We should really basically ban Russian LNG," said Hilgenstock. "We don't think it plays any significant role for European gas supply, or it can be relatively easily replaced through LNG from other sources." A 2023 study by the Bruegel think tank backs up this analysis.

Yet Acer, the EU's energy regulator, recently warned that any reduction of Russian LNG imports should take place "in gradual steps" to avoid an energy shock.

The EU countries still piping in Russian gas

Pipeline gas from Russia is also still coming into the EU. Although the Nord Stream pipelines are not operational and the Yamal pipeline no longer brings Russian gas to Europe, Russian gas still flows into Austria's Baumgarten gas hub via pipelines that cross Ukraine. Austria's partly state-owned OMV energy company has a contract with Russian gas company Gazprom until 2040.

In February, Austria confirmed that 98% of its gas imports in December 2023 were from Russia. The government says it wants to break the contract with Gazprom as early as possible, but EU sanctions on Russian gas are necessary for that to happen legally.

Like Austria, Hungary has continued to import pipeline Russian gas in large quantities. Hungary also recently struck a gas deal with Turkey, but experts say this gas, via Turkstream, is also from Russia.

Hilgenstock says that some countries have continued to buy Russian gas as they are benefiting from cheap, attractive contracts. "So unless and until there is an embargo on Russian natural gas, then it's really up to these countries to do this," he said.

For countries such as Austria and Hungary, a possible end to their pipeline imports from Russia may ultimately be fashioned by Ukraine. Kyiv insists it will not renew existing deals it has with Gazprom to let gas flow via its territory. That agreement expires at the end of 2024.

Time for an embargo?

Although Russian gas is still imported into Europe, its overall share of Europe's gas imports has fallen dramatically since 2021.

The EU says it wants the bloc to be completely free of Russian gas by 2027, a goal that Hilgenstock believes looks increasingly realistic.

"I think if this entire, sordid affair has shown us one thing is that we can, in fact, relatively quickly diversify our supply of gas and other energy sources away from Russia," he said.

However, he believes the political conditions "aren't particularly conducive" for a total gas embargo at present, particularly a pipeline embargo. He points to Hungary's presidency of the EU in the second half of 2024 as a potential barrier. Budapest has closer ties to Moscow than most EU member states.

On LNG, he is more optimistic and says that in addition to EU action, it is up to high-volume LNG importers such as Spain and Belgium to take measures themselves.

"This backdoor importing of Russian gas is a huge problem, especially from a messaging point of view," he said. "And we're helping Russia with its LNG supply chains, which we shouldn't."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

The money that we use to buy things is only printed paper or stamped metal. If the payment is electronic, as is increasingly the case, then it's no more than electronic data. Money's actual value comes from the trust we have in it: Every person should be able to count on the fact that the paper or metal they possess is worth precisely what it has been marked as being worth.

Counterfeit currency causes economic damage that affects everyone. Anyone who happens to be paid with counterfeit money or receives it as change, bears additional costs, as it can be confiscated by law enforcement authorities and there is no right to financial compensation. States take money counterfeiting seriously: Money forging is no petty crime.

Long investigation, big success

On Wednesday, German press agency dpa reported that Spain's National Police had busted a money counterfeiting ring that had allegedly been putting fake €2 coins into circulation all across Europe. With the help of the pan-EU police organization Europol, the Spanish authorities were reportedly able to uncover a counterfeit workshop in the central city of Toledo that they described as "the most important in Europe over the past 10 years."

The ring reportedly brought nearly 500,000 coins "of high quality" onto the European market. Ten individuals, all Chinese nationals, were reportedly arrested. Spain's National Police said they had been investigating the case for six years, and described the investigations as "extremely difficult and drawn out, not least because of the secretive nature of the organization, and also the near impossibility of being able to follow a trail, which is characteristic for forged coins."

Even though the total economic damage in this particular case is not very significant (half a million forged €2 coins is only worth around €1 million), the police operation should not be underestimated. Someone who is able to successfully bring forged coins into circulation over a long period of time while going undetected can expand their energies and expertise. A key aspect here is the psychological importance of being able to reassure citizens that their money is safe and will maintain its value.

Coins are relatively safe

It is relatively easy to identify counterfeit bills. The security measures that have been implemented by central banks are sophisticated and have been well communicated. Almost everybody is familiar with these "security features," from the security thread to the hologram, the background that is difficult to copy to the paper quality — or at least they think they are familiar with them. There are definitely individuals who will overestimate their identification skills.

It's a little different for coins, since they lack a hologram or a security thread. But even such "petty change" has characteristics that forgers often can't replicate and that are therefore worth paying attention to.

How do I recognize fake coins?

In Germany, the Bundesbank, or Federal Bank, is responsible for making German euro coins. The page on its website entitled "Leitfaden Münzen" (Guidelines Coins) contains descriptions on coin security.

"One doesn't need to be a coin expert to tell counterfeit coins apart from real ones," it reads. The bank provides concrete ways to evaluate coins. This is no problem for professionals, since there is a single Europe-wide test that can be done with a certified coin detection device. "Devices that have been successfully tested are available on the website of the European Commission," reads the bank's page on money testing devices.

Of course, this doesn't help the common person much. So the bank recommends paying attention to "the first impression." On a real coin, the imprinted image clearly rises above the rest of the coin's surface, and all contours can be clearly seen, the bank writes. Caution is called for if this isn't the case: The image on counterfeit coins is often poorly imprinted, while the surface can be scarred and contain spots, flecks, lines or notches, the website says. 

Another feature also merits attention: For reasons of security, and also to make it easier for blind individuals to distinguish between coins, the coin edge has a characteristic notching. The bank guidelines explain that the symbols imprinted on the edge of coins are often indistinct and covered by the notching on forged coins in comparison to real €2 coins, where they can be clearly made out; the distance between the symbols and words on the edge of the coins also differs when forged versions are compared to real ones. 

Trick with the magnets

The Bundesbank seems to believe that everybody walks around with a magnet in their pocket. While this is likely not the case, its tip about using magnets is nonetheless helpful. "Due to a special security material, the middle section of one and €2 coins is slightly magnetic. This means the coins are lightly picked up by a magnet and will fall off if the magnet is shaken lightly," the bank writes in its guidelines. 

However, "The outer ring of real one and €2 coins, as well as 10, 20 and 50 cent coins is not magnetic," the guidelines continue, adding that, "Real one, two and five-cent coins made of copper-plated steel are highly magnetic." Perhaps in addition to a magnet, it's also advisable to walk around with a note in one's pocket that lists all the characteristics of the different coins.

This article was originally written in German.

Iran knows it, China knows it and apparently, so does the US government: despite existing sanctions against the oil industry of the Islamic Republic, oil from Iran is being shipped to China in record volumes.

Javier Blas, an opinion columnist who covers energy and commodities for Bloomberg, recently described how Iranian oil ends up in China.

"If you believe the Chinese government, the country doesn't import any oil from Iran. Zero. Not a barrel. Instead, it imports lots of Malaysian crude. So much that, according to official Chinese customs data, it somehow buys more than twice as much Malaysian oil as Malaysia actually produces."

By rebranding Iranian oil, Malaysia became China's fourth-largest foreign oil supplier last year, behind Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq.

For many years, Iran has used the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a hub for circumventing sanctions. Dubai, one of the seven emirates of the UAE, is the gateway of banned goods other than oil that enter Iran. Tehran has long modified its supply chains so that virtually everything embargoed by the United States or the European Union can be obtained through trading and financial hubs like Dubai.

Central Asia: Russia's new trading hub

Following Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine, Russia has had to establish similar trade routes to ensure a steady supply of vital goods for its economy.

The former Soviet republics in Central Asia have been proving ideal for circumventing the embargoes, because countries like Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan are part of a customs union with Moscow. Moreover, the vast distances — Kazakhstan alone shares a border with Russia of more than 7,500 kilometers (4,660 miles) — make sanctions control virtually impossible.

Due to Russia's sanctions-busting strategy, Armenia, for example, saw imports of German cars and components rise by almost 1000% last year.

Russia is the most embargoed country globally, according to the latest data provided by Castellum.AI, a global sanctions-tracking database.

However, the Russian economy is far from collapsing. It posted strong growth of 3.6% last year, and the Kremlin is expecting the 2024 growth rate to be "at the same level," according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

The International Monetary Fund shares the Russians' growth expectations, setting the rate of GDP expansion at 3.2%, and noting that high state spending and investments related to the war against Ukraine would be driving growth. Strong revenue from oil exports would continue to support Moscow's finances, it said.

Sanctions galore, to little effect

Russia is subject to more than 5,000 different targeted sanctions — more than have been imposed on Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar and Cuba combined. They are targeted at politicians and officials in Putin's government, as well as at Russian oligarchs, large companies, financial institutions and the military-industrial complex.

Financial sanctions have restricted Russian banks' access to international financial markets, excluding them from the crucially important SWIFT banking system, which powers most international money and security transfers.

Additionally, the Russian central bank is denied access to its vast reserves located in G7 countries.

The catch is that only sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council are legally binding for all countries of the world. And there are indeed several countries like India, Brazil and China that have not adhered to these sanctions.

What's the alternative?

So, why are Western nations still imposing sanctions they cannot enforce?

"If no sanctions were imposed, it would almost be like tacit support. Or as if one were not responding to this [Russia's] illegal attack," said Christian von Soest, sanctions expert at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies.

Author of the 2023 book titled "Sanctions: Powerful Weapon or Helpless Maneuver?", von Soest told DW that the US and Europe needed to "sharpen their measures to force Russia and Iran to change their behavior."

According to a report by US business daily The Wall Street Journal, Washington is planning to target several Chinese banks to ensure Western sanctions bite. US President Joe Biden's administration wants to exclude Beijing from the global financial system in order to stop the flow of finance funding the Russian war machinery, the newspaper reported, citing anonymous sources.

In the EU, a so-called sanctions envoy — David O'Sullivan from Ireland — was named in January last year to engage in diplomatic efforts to enforce the bloc's sanctions regime. 

"His task is also to travel to the post-Soviet states neighboring Russia, for example, and persuade governments there to enforce the sanctions more rigorously," von Soest told DW.

"The general problem has been recognized that there are ways for both Russia and Iran to circumvent the sanctions," he said, adding that now one has to see what the various measures bring.

Some impact is already being felt: in Turkey, for example, where a US threat to impose sanctions on financial firms doing business with Russia has led to a steep decline in Turkey's exports to Russia, which had boomed last year.

This article was originally written in German.

The Hannover Messe, one of the world's largest trade fairs, is a trendsetter.  

The annual event, which takes place in the German city of Hanover, is where the world gets a glimpse into the industrial future and its groundbreaking themes.

The fact that China is an indispensable player here is apparent from the number of exhibitors from the Asian powerhouse. Almost 1 in 3 of the approximately 4,000 participants this year came from China.

The fact that the German government defines Beijing simultaneously as a "partner," "competitor" and "systemic rival" in its China strategy, unveiled last year, did not deter exhibitors.

"I'm not aware of Germany's position," said entrepreneur Jiang, who was exhibiting ball bearings of various sizes at his standard nine square meter stand in Hall 4.

The bearings are used in machines for so-called additive manufacturing, where workpieces are built up layer by layer.

"But that doesn't matter. We want to do business. And my products are good, inexpensive and indispensable for the industry," Jiang said.

A small number of stands remain empty in Hall 4. The company names stuck to the outside wall indicate that these were also intended for companies from China. The business representatives were probably not issued with visas for Germany, according to some exhibitors in nearby stands.

Otherwise, there was a clear sense of optimism at the stand for Chinese SMEs.

Taking part in the Hanover fair gives companies the opportunity for more export business to compensate for the declining demand in China's domestic market. "We are hoping for large orders from abroad," said Jiang, but admits that it is "difficult everywhere."

The future with AI-driven industry made in China

The logo on the China stand, "Make Things Better," reads like a self-confident slogan: Chinese companies have already taken the lead in some sectors worldwide. Themes such as digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) would be inconceivable without Chinese involvement. The future lies in "Industry 4.0" — networked production with automated allocation of resources using AI.

The factories of the future, also known as smart factories, need fast wireless networks and cloud services. All industrial data is transmitted from production sites to the servers in real time via these "data clouds."

Artificial intelligence uses cloud computing to determine the best possible solutions according to predefined calculation models — the algorithms — and gives the machines instructions to perform the next steps.

Attending the opening of the trade fair on Monday, April 22, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized his country's strength "to ensure the future for our economy and for good, secure jobs in 10, 20, 30 years and for the future."

This can only be achieved with technological innovations, for which companies from Germany and many other countries that are participating in the Hanover fair are particularly suited, Scholz said.

Symbiosis through globalization

Important innovations are coming out of China.

"We are convinced of the progress made through globalization," said Zhiqiang Tao, vice president of Huawei Cloud.

The Chinese telecom giant is rapidly expanding its cloud services in Europe and operates servers for European customers in Ireland and Turkey.

"In Germany, for example, we offer our industrial customers a reliable cloud service via Deutsche Telekom. Only through cooperation will we remain successful in the future," Zhiqiang added.

According to Tao, over 8,000 industrial companies with a global presence are already using Huawei's cloud services in China. Linking these firms with their international partners would accelerate the digitalization of the entire value chain, he said. "We create added value for everyone. And a symbiosis is created."

But it is precisely this symbiosis that Germany has a problem with. Although Berlin's China strategy does not call for complete decoupling, it does call for diversification and so-called de-risking, a term implying a reduced economic dependence on Beijing. 

"We think it is understandable that Germany is trying to reduce its dependence on key primary products and raw materials," said Volker Treier, deputy head of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) in Hanover.

"This is a normal commercial imperative. It gives some substance to the concept of de-risking. In China, issues such as the protection of intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology have not yet completely disappeared from the agenda."

Investment record despite de-risking strategy

But investment figures paint a different picture.

According to the Bundesbank, German firms invested almost €12 billion ($12.9 billion) in China in 2023 — more than ever before — despite the increased talk of de-risking. 

A business climate survey conducted by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK) found that 54% of German companies want to increase their investments in China in order to "remain competitive there."

"This shows that, despite the existing challenges, there is still confidence in the stability and potential of the Chinese market," said Thomas Scheler, managing director of the German-Chinese Business Association (DCW) in Düsseldorf.

The complementarity of the two economies is "a key driver" in the contrasting phenomenon of political control and economic action, he said.

The opportunity now lies in the fact that globalization is moving away from trade in goods towards trade in services and, above all, direct investment, said business journalist Dieter Beste.

"Direct investment means producing close to the market, and in the market for the respective market. These are trends that are emerging worldwide, especially in the relationship between Germany and China," Beste added.

Reports of industrial espionage

The debate on innovation partnerships with Chinese companies has been overshadowed this week by reports of Chinese espionage.

The German Federal Prosecutor's office on Monday said that three German nationals had been arrested under the suspicion of having worked for the Chinese secret service.

Prosecutors believe the trio may have been involved in research projects that could be useful for China to expand its maritime power.

It is alleged that one of the suspects obtained information about innovative technologies that could be used for military purposes.

Due to the EU arms embargo on China, following the violent suppression of students protests on Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989, no licenses for export of weapons to China may be issued.

"Quite frankly, relations have been better in the past," said DIHK's Treier. "The volatile global situation has also had an impact on economic relations with China. Still, despite strong headwinds, we need to expand and systematically develop areas of cooperation."

This article was originally written in German

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Cars are special products: They're easier to ship than, say, oil rigs, but they're also so large that you can't just put them on a shelf. Each car occupies about ten square meters (107 square feet) of space, even when not in use.

This poses problems for ports where cars are loaded and unloaded ― in Germany, there are two really big ones in Bremen and Bremerhaven. The car terminal at the Port of Bremerhaven is one of the largest auto ports in the world with a turnover of more than 1.7 million vehicles per year.

BLG Logistics Group, an international seaport and logistics services provider, operates the car-handling terminal at Bremerhaven. BLG spokesperson Julia Wagner said the port has space for approximately 70,000 vehicles with more than 1,000 car carriers visiting the terminal every year.

Wagner told DW that the shipping business especially concerning automobiles at Bremerhaven had changed in recent years. "We used to have 80% export and 20% import for a long time. This ratio is now at 50:50."

Bottlenecks from truck drivers to sales networks

The Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Belgium, with its car terminal at Zeebrugge, is Europe's busiest port for car imports and handles twice as many vehicles as Bremerhaven. There too, huge numbers of cars are piling up currently as manufacturers and sellers are being hit by a Europe-wide slowdown in sales and logistical bottlenecks including a shortage of truck drivers.

"This is happening at all European ports that ship large numbers of cars," says Elke Verbeelen from the communications department of the Antwerp-Bruges port. The longer dwell time of cars at the ports, however, was not only caused by a surge in imports, she told DW.

"The problem lies less in the number of cars landed but rather in the fact that they are not transported onward promptly."

At the moment, the capacities of the main European car terminals are still large enough to park the vehicles, says Julia Wagner from Bremerhaven. "We currently do not observe a 'congestion' of the terminal, as reported in some media about the situation in European ports."

Modern-day marketing

At first glance, the shipping of vehicles seems a rather straightforward business with manufacturers, distributors and sellers. However, auto production and its multiple supply chains have changed rapidly in recent years as new markets such as China have grown and trade disputes have increased auto import tariffs.

Elke Verbeelen adds that carmakers' marketing and distribution strategies are also different from the good old showroom dealerships of the past. As customers increasingly like to buy their cars online, carmakers like Tesla have shifted their presence from the main street to the internet. With more direct marketing to customers, the cars typically "stay in the port for much longer," often without ever seeing a showroom.

EV sales slump

Another reason for the longer dwell time of vehicles experienced at the European ports is "relatively low car sales," said BLG Group's Julia Wagner.

The situation has worsened after Germany abruptly stopped subsidizing purchases of electric vehicles (EVs) in December last year. "The parking times of cars from all manufacturers at the terminal have increased with the discontinuation of state subsidies that diminished sales of electric cars," said Wagner.

This comes at a time when Chinese carmakers have launched an aggressive push to ramp up their global EV exports which climbed 58% in 2023 from the year before.

Verbeelen noted, however, that while EV sales may experience stagnation, overall car imports, including combustion-engine vehicles, are picking up again "compared with the years 2020 and 2021," when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the auto industry as well as transportation businesses.

The result is "lower capacity for [onward] road transportation of cars due to a shortage of truck drivers," which would "further increase the time of vehicles spend at the ports."

This article was originally written in German.

The long US presidential election campaign is well underway, and Joe Biden can use all the good economic news he can get. The economy, or at least voters' perception of it, will have a lot to do with his chances for reelection. 

In March, employers created more than 300,000 jobs and unemployment stood at 3.8%. At the same time, March's inflation rate rose a bit over February and it's anyone's guess when interest rates will come down.  

One thing the president is convinced of is the importance of semiconductor chips — and making those chips in the US. In 2022, the government passed the CHIPS and Science Act and is now squeezing out every dollar it can to attract manufacturers, and that's adding up to be a lot of dollars.

Is Taiwan's weakness America's advantage?

Today, semiconductors power much of our modern life, from smartphones, vehicles and satellites to military equipment, data centers and generative artificial intelligence. 

Though semiconductor chips were invented in America, manufacturing has mostly moved elsewhere. Currently, most high-end semiconductor chips are made in Taiwan. Only about 10% of chips are made in the US, and none of the most advanced ones. Even superchips designed in the US by the likes of Nvidia, are made elsewhere.

One problem with this system is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Natural disasters, pandemics and human factors like embargoes and armed conflicts have had an impact on supply chains, said Alan Rae, director of the NYS Centers of Excellence and Advanced Technology at the University at Buffalo in New York.

The reliance on Taiwan is especially fraught. Nearby China claims the island and many fear a possible military strike or invasion that would substantially disrupt the world's economy. Plus, the island recently suffered from its strongest earthquake in 25 years.

Rae, an expert on semiconductor manufacturing with decades of experience, is a keen industry watcher. "Taiwan has done a superb job building a complete ecosystem for leading-edge chip production," he told DW. "Duplicating this will take significant money and effort but is achievable."

America responds with CHIPS and Science Act

To diversify away from Taiwan and Southeast Asia, a number of countries like Germany are trying to attract chipmakers. But the US is more determined to onshore advanced chipmaking than most. The Biden administration sees this as a way to build up domestic jobs and overcome national security vulnerabilities.

The CHIPS and Science Act is its main tool. Here, "chips" stands for "Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors." One provision of the law gives $39 billion (€36.6 billion) in federal grants to the Commerce Department to lure companies to build or expand US-based semiconductor manufacturing. It allocates another $75 billion for loans, among other measures.

At a podium discussion in February, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said semiconductors are the "most important piece of hardware in the 21st century" and that the US must cement its leadership role in this crucial industry.

To help make this happen, her department is using money from the CHIPS Act to make "targeted investments in relentless pursuit of achieving our national security objectives," she said.

Importantly, they are focusing on research and manufacturing clusters and projects that will be operational by 2030 to "maximize our impact in this decade."

Billions in grants are being handed out

Now the money is starting to flow, with the first grants going to GlobalFoundries, Microchip Technology and BAE Systems.

In March, Biden announced a $8.5 billion grant for Silicon Valley-based Intel to help it build up chip production across four states. It was the biggest grant so far and comes with an additional $11 billion in loans.

In early April, another $6.6 billion in direct funding and $5 billion in loans was announced for Taiwan-based TSMC to build in Phoenix, Arizona. The company plans to invest more than $65 billion in three manufacturing facilities. The first site should be online 2025.

A week later, the US government announced $6.4 billion for South Korea's Samsung to expand an existing facility plus build two new ones in Texas. The company, which has been manufacturing in America since 1996, also promised to set up a research and development operation in the state. In total, the company is expected to invest more than $40 billion.

Building up an industry in an election year

Next in line is Micron Technology, the biggest maker of memory chips in the US. Micron is set to receive up to $6.1 billion in grants from the US government to help build semiconductor plants in New York and Idaho, the White House said Thursday.

That will bring total federal grants to more than $33 billion and leave just over $6 billion to splash out on the industry. In addition to these direct grants and loans are billions in promised tax credits to cover a large part of building costs.

Construction and manufacturing should create tens of thousands of well-paid jobs. But big investments are only one side of the equation; workforce development is also important, and so is access to a supportive supplier ecosystem, said Rae.

Creating jobs and bringing manufacturing back to the United States are a big part of Biden's economic policy. But investing billions in a single industry — no matter how important — may not woo enough voters.

Moreover, voters' memories are short, said John Mark Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago in Illinois. Still, evidence shows that "a strong economy benefits the party of the incumbent president and a poor economy hurts it."

And looking at the economy, "the best predictor of election outcomes is the growth in real disposable income per capita," Hansen told DW. In other words how much money people take home after inflation and taxes. There are still a few months before the election in November, "but it doesn't look as bad for Biden as everybody seems to think."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Indonesia wants progress on a free trade agreement with the EU despite ongoing disputes over deforestation and nickel mining, the country's ambassador to Germany said in an interview on the fringes of the world's most important industrial fair in Hanover, Germany.

"Fifteen, twenty years of negotiation I think is too long," Arif Havas Oegroseno told DW.

The two economies opened trade talks in 2016, with Brussels aiming to build on recent agreements with Singapore and Vietnam.

Yet more than a dozen rounds of negotiations have failed to produce an agreement with Indonesia. One stumbling block is the language surrounding sustainable development, an area that includes biodiversity and deforestation.

'Fair treatment is the key'

Indonesia has taken issue with a new EU law requiring countries to certify their forest products against deforestation, a measure that covers the country's considerable palm oil exports. Jakarta says the law puts a burden on smaller landowners, in particular, some of whom lack the paper titles to their land.

"You're actually killing the smallholders who have nothing to do with deforestation," Oegroseno said.

The ambassador complained that European cooking oils don't require such certifications, and he repeated his country's complaint that Brussels was engaged in "regulatory imperialism."

"Fair treatment, that's the key," he said.

A joint task force between the EU and Southeast Asian countries is now working to implement the new law.

Indonesia is also fighting EU efforts to force continued exports of nickel, an essential component for electric car batteries. The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled in favor of Brussels in 2022, saying Jakarta was wrong to ban exports of the metal two years prior to prioritize direct investment in extraction.

Indonesia's efforts to appeal the ruling have been hampered by the political crisis surrounding the WTO's appellate body, which ceased functioning in 2019.

Oegroseno said the EU could join other countries that have announced investment in Indonesia and even help clean up the smelting process. "Brussels should help us instead of attacking us," he said.

Trade disputes

Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament's committee for trade defended the new deforestation law in an interview, saying the EU wasn't trying to lecture other countries. "These are not European values or European legislation or European vision of society," Lange told DW. "It's a universal perspective for people and the environment."

He also said the EU was also working with nations to monitor deforestation.

The disagreement with Indonesia is part of the broader complications surrounding EU trade deals in recent years.

An agreed deal with leading South American economies known as Mercosur has run into opposition from EU member states, including France. Opponents point both to concerns over new competition and worries over deforestation in the Amazon Basin.

European concerns over market competition in agriculture also helped kill a free trade agreement with Australia last year.

European capitals are still responding to a spate of farmer protests in the winter, which were sparked by concerns over rising costs, growing bureaucracy and changing environmental standards. At the same time, Brussels is under pressure to seal new trade deals given uncertainties with traditional partners China and the US.

A new study from the German Economic Insitute in Cologne, Germany, recommended the EU diversify its trade to buffer against possible disruptions, in particular from the US. 

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

For sale: The lucrative US business of one of the world's most successful social media platforms with a billion users across 140 countries.

Sounds like a good deal for someone with ambition and money. But Chinese-owned TikTok isn't just any short-video-sharing app. It is a phenomenon changing social media and how people communicate.

Claims of national security concerns in the United States don't make things any easier. In addition, protectionist attitudes and sentiment on China in general have turned dark and Congress is moving fast to force the company's hand.

US Congress in control?

The US government now sees TikTok as more than entertainment — it's a news and information platform that can be used for propaganda, too. For decades, the US had restrictions on foreign ownership of traditional media like radio or cable stations; for policymakers restrictions on TikTok are a logical 21st-century consequence.

On April 24, US President Joe Biden signed a bill aimed at forcing a change of ownership of TikTok into law after the US Senate approved it by a large margin.

TikTok may be waiting for a knight in shining armor to save its US business. Yet the pool of available buyers is small and Elon Musk is already busy reworking X, formerly known as Twitter. Who else can they turn to? What will happen to the 170 million US users if TikTok just can't be sold?

A short history in 60 seconds

This isn't TikTok's first time on the possible selling block. Former President Donald Trump tried with an executive order to force ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, to sell the subsidiary to an American owner back in 2020.

It seemed a deal with Oracle was close, but those efforts failed, as did an attempt to keep the app out of app stores. 

Since then TikTok said it has gone to great lengths to delete the data on American users from ByteDance servers and move all that information to US-based servers, a move it calls Project Texas. This should, in theory, keep the data out of the hands of Chinese surveillance.

Experts like Milton Mueller, a cybersecurity expert at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, doubt there is any real security threat after having looked at all the evidence. Still, many US politicians and government intelligence and security agencies don't seem appeased and want to take it to the next level. 

Who would want to buy TikTok?

With all that in mind, buying all — or just the American part — of TikTok would not be a usual business transaction. It would be a geopolitical minefield. Would ByteDance still be a majority shareholder calling the shots in the background? Who would run and update its powerful algorithm?

Mueller, who looks at TikTok several times a week, thinks a sale is "theoretically possible but highly complicated and not likely." He added that "China's government might not allow it, and it is unclear what is gained, or even what it means, to sell 'part' of a globally interconnected social media service."

ByteDance seems ready for a legal fight. For its part, the Chinese government has been restrained. But they could try to prevent a sale by putting an export ban on the technology behind the app. Without its algorithm, TikTok would be less attractive.

Besides that, it's hard to put boundaries and prevent access to something as free-flowing as an app. App stores would have to block all new downloads and updates for those who have it already.

There is also a short timeline. Mueller has talked with a number of TikTok people recently who say as a technical or operational matter divestiture doesn't work in such a short period. They would have six months, "whereas the Grindr divestiture from a different Chinese company took a year," he said.

A big big-ticket item

The challenges just pile up. Any ban in America would surely lead to First Amendment constitutional challenges. "It would be US users whose speech would be suppressed, not foreigners or the Chinese government," Mueller said. 

Then there's the price. Several analysts think that despite all the difficulties, TikTok's US business could sell for over $50 billion (€45.8 billion). There are only a few companies that could afford to spend that much, like Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft or Netflix.

Some of these companies would then end up in the crosshairs of antitrust officials for owning too much important technology.

Alternatively, all or part of TikTok could be spun off as an independent publicly listed company. Or US-based private equity giants could step in.

After the House of Representatives vote in March, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he is working to put together a group of investors to take over the company without announcing any details. Ironically, Mnuchin was one of the people pushing for a sale four years ago while he was a member of Trump's Cabinet. 

It's likely not about apps at all

Yet, in the end, it's not about good business or even national security, said Mueller. "It is a pawn in the broader US-China power competition, and it is also exploited for symbolic reasons."

"Equating a commercial social media app with espionage, and calling TikTok's Singaporean CEO an agent of the Chinese Communist Party, is obviously inaccurate," but sells well to both Republicans and Democrats "who see the US as engaged in a competition with China to retain US hegemony," he said.

Forcing an ownership sale would also set a dangerous precedent that could be used by other governments against US social media companies.

In the end, Mueller expects such digital protectionism to lead to "less competition and innovation in the social media market." And there is always the next national security threat. Perhaps Chinese-made electric vehicles or battery systems? The retaliation may never end.

So, anyone interested?

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Editor's note: The article, originally published on March 20, 2024, has been updated to reflect President Joe Biden's signing of the bill to force a change in ownership of TikTok's US business into law.

The Israeli economy is showing signs of a return to normality despite the strain the war against Hamas has put on it.

Although official economic data for the first three months of 2024 has yet to be released by the government, recent labor market data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and credit card transaction data from the Bank of Israel suggest the country's economy is rebounding from the shock of the October 7 terror attacks and the war that has followed.

Israel's economy suffered a major contraction in the final quarter of 2023, following the terrorist attacks. Its economy shrank by 5.2% compared with the previous quarter. Much was related to the labor force disruption which resulted when around 300,000 reservists were called up to the country's armed forces.

However, Benjamin Bental, professor of economics at the University of Haifa, says the labor market is finally recovering from the sudden departure of so many workers and small business owners from the economy.

"The labor market is really stabilizing quite rapidly," he told DW. "It's not yet at its pre-war level but formal unemployment is actually 1% lower than it was in September 2023."

The ongoing return of some reservists has improved the labor situation while the strong credit card data suggests returning consumer optimism after a big slump in late 2023.

However, Bental said certain sectors remain severely affected by labor shortages, particularly construction. That is largely because the industry was heavily dependent on Palestinian workers coming from the Israeli-occupied West Bank who are now unable to travel to their jobs in Israel due to the security situation.

Around 75,000 Palestinians used to commute daily to Israel for construction work from the West Bank. Their absence brought building work to an almost complete halt, as residential construction fell by 95% in late 2023.

The sector has recovered somewhat since Israel brought in thousands of workers from India, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan to resume construction work, but the full picture won't be clear until first-quarter data is released.

Israel's budget deficit

The war forced the Israeli government to dramatically ramp up spending, with a surge in defense expenditure as well as reconstruction costs associated with the Hamas attacks and the cost of re-housing tens of thousands of Israelis displaced in the north and south of the country.

Israel announced an amended state budget for 2024 last month of 584 billion shekels ($160 billion, €144 billion). The budget was initially reported as setting a deficit of 6.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, up from a pre-war level of 2.25%. However, Benjamin Bental says it's already clear that this is a significant underestimate and that a deficit of 8% looks more realistic.

"This is what looks more or less reasonable, assuming that there is no further deterioration of the security situation," he said, referring to current tensions with Iran.

There is obvious pressure on government finances. It plans to raise about $60 billion (€56 billion) in debt this year, as well as increasing taxes, but it insists it has the capacity.

"The economic fundamentals are there," Yali Rothenberg, the finance ministry's accountant general, told the Financial Times ahead of the amended budget announcement. "If you look at the high-tech sector, it's there. If you look at the infrastructure investment, it's there. If you look at the private consumption, it's there."

Learning from past conflicts

Before the attacks on October 7 by the militant Islamist Hamas group, Israel's economy was in good shape. "The economy was performing remarkably well," said Bental. "Inflation was coming down and the entire monetary situation was under very good control."

He pointed out that Israel was headed for growth of 3.5% before the attacks in 2023, and that it still managed growth of 2% for the year despite the final quarter shock.

He stressed that on the streets of cities such as Tel Aviv or Haifa, there is little evidence of a war economy or any sense of shortage or deprivation. However, he cautioned that Israel's experience of how previous wars and security crises impacted the economy should guide the current leadership.

Bental is worried about excessive spending on defense, for example. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel had dramatically ramped up defense expenditure to the point where it reached a "totally unsustainable" 30% of GDP. Combined with the oil crisis and wider global economic crisis of the time, the conflict "led to a real disaster economically" for Israel, where "you have very high inflation and basically no growth for almost 10 years."

According to Bental, the Second Intifada of the Palestinians, which took place between 2000 and 2005, had more similarities to the present conflict in that it involved civilians.

"You can learn a little bit about the damage that is caused by the loss of confidence of the civilian population and the loss of the sense of security during that particular episode," he said. "And there are estimates that over these years, let's say three, four years, the Israeli GDP lost about 10% just because of that"

Another example he gave is the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah and Lebanon — a conflict that showed how quickly the economy can recover once the fighting stops.

"We're talking about a situation where for basically a month, the northern region of Israel was not functioning," he noted. "But when you look at the data and you look for any traces of this, you won't find it. This is really amazing. The economy, once this was over, recuperated in no time."

Bental hopes that this will be the case when the current conflict ends and suggests the recent signs of recovery point toward that very situation.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

"The roof came crumbling down upon us. We felt as if we were free-falling towards the ground," said Afroza Begum, recalling the events of April 24, 2013, when the tragic collapse of the Rana Plaza garment factory building on the outskirts of Bangladesh's capital, Dhaka, killed 1,134 and wounded at least 2,500 people.   

At the time, Begum worked as a seamstress there, producing garments for several global fashion brands.

"Fifteen or so of us laid in a pile on top of each other. Scratching, grunting and looking for an escape. There was no electricity, so it was pitch dark," she said, describing it as the most harrowing experience of her life.

"Then I saw a beam of light enter through a massive hole in the wall. I did not die, because I landed on dead bodies," she said.

Afroza was dragged out of the rubble and taken to the nearest government hospital for treatment. Two of her relatives working in the eight-storey building at the time of its collapse died.

What changed after the tragedy?

The Rana Plaza building had housed five garment factories that manufactured clothes for many international clothing brands in Europe and North America.

Investigations would later reveal that besides shoddy construction, the building had too many floors and too much heavy equipment for the structure to withstand.

"The disaster could have been stopped because companies knew about the risks but didn't do anything to fix them," said the Clean Clothes Campaign group.

Eleven years since the tragedy, the biggest industrial disaster in the South Asian nation's history, some reforms have been introduced to hold international brands accountable for worker safety, even though violations persist.

The groundbreaking Bangladesh Accord came into force in 2013, giving unions greater say while holding fashion brands legally accountable for ensuring factories remained safe.

Over 220 brands eventually signed on to the original accord, which ran until 2018 and has since been renewed as the "International Accord."

According to the Clean Clothes Campaign group, the accord has made more than 1,600 factories in Bangladesh safer for over 2.5 million workers.

Only two brands have been brought to court for violating the regulation contract since 2013.

Poor working conditions persist

Still, not all is well when it comes to safety, say rights groups.

"Occupational safety and health measures in these factories are very lax," said Diana Quiroz, a researcher who surveyed trade union leaders active in the garment sector in a few Asian countries, including Bangladesh.

Her research, she told DW, has shown that workers are forced to sit on the factory floor in the same position for hours and do repetitive tasks.

"Almost all of them develop skeletal or muscular diseases. The factories have no air circulation and they never see sunlight," she noted.

"It's important for both employers and governments to recognize their respective roles and responsibilities in addressing these challenges and improving the overall well-being of workers," Quiroz added. 

Many workers also suffer from overwork, underpay and a lack of job security.

"Even today, Bangladesh is one of the largest hubs for cheap labor for companies like H&M, Zara, and Primark," said Elizabeth Segran, who covers fashion and sustainability at Fast Company.

The workers earn on average €70 ($75) a month, much less than the about €284 needed for a decent living, according to the Bangladesh Institute of Labor Studies.

"Also, the working conditions are usually really bad," Segran underlined.

Sanchaita Saxena, an expert on labor, business, and human rights in global supply chains, shares a similar view.

"The factories still underpay, overwork and offer no employment security to the workers," she pointed out, calling for increased focus on the rights and protection of the workers.

The textile sector, however, is crucial to Bangladesh's economy — about 3,500 garment factories account for around 85% of its $55 billion in annual exports, supplying many of the world's top brands including Levi's, Zara and H&M.

Last year, the country witnessed massive street protests by thousands of workers demanding higher wages, claiming their pay left them unable to make ends meet.

The demonstrations forced authorities to raise the minimum monthly wage for garment workers from 8,000 taka (€70, $75)  to 12,500 taka.

But some protesters said the 56% increase was too small and demanded a 23,000 taka minimum.

Are global brands doing enough?

Workers' rights bodies say global fashion brands like H&M and Zara should commit to paying living wages and absorbing the higher labor costs. 

The Clean Clothes Campaign group accuses companies that source apparel from factories in Bangladesh, of not doing enough to protect labor rights.

The organization pointed to threats issued by factory owners to thwart the workers from forming and joining unions.

"In order to scare away the union leaders, factories use fake complaints to scare thousands of workers who protested in 2023," the group said.

Activists have long urged international companies and foreign governments to crack down on abuses of workers' rights in the textile supply chain.

On April 24, 2024, the European Parliament will decide on a new bill called the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which would require firms to act to eliminate practices such as child labor, forced labor and inadequate safety standards in their supply chains.

The legislation offers a glimmer of hope to people like Afroza Begum, who has been living with the grim consequences of the Rana Plaza disaster over the past 11 years.

"I live on medicines and have permanent nerve damage, anxiety and heart problems," she said. She is no longer able to work due to a disability caused by the accident.

The small sums of compensation she received from the Bangladeshi government, NGOs and the companies have long since run dry. "Justice has yet to be delivered," she said.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

"No more farmers, no more bread" was a popular slogan during the more than 200 street blockades organized by Polish farmers in February this year.

Outside the Polish town of Kock, a two-hour drive from the Ukrainian border, for example, hundreds of tractors blocked a street to prevent cheap Ukrainian grain from entering the country. For farmers here, there's another major worry: They fear that the entry of Poland's eastern neighbor into the EUcould threaten their livelihoods.

"They must forget about it. It's a crazy idea," one of the protesting farmers told DW during the blockade.

For more than a decade, the EU seemed like a closed club with several countries lining up to get in. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed this.

In December, the EU opened accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and granted candidate status to Georgia.

Political push hits budget constraints

"For obvious reasons, the EU is now seeing enlargement as a security instrument. And the budget is part of the discussions, but it might not necessarily be the deciding factor," Thu Nguyen, deputy director of the Berlin-based independent think tank Jacques Delors Center, told DW.

The recent protests in Poland are a reminder though that economics are invariably part of the EU's political drive. And Brussels' new expansion enthusiasm is accompanied by fears that enlargement will put some of the EU's members and citizens at an economic disadvantage.

The EU spends the biggest chunks of its budget on regional development and agriculture. The less well-off member states get more money from the EU than they pay in. The eight countries currently in line for joining are all poorer than the current member states. Turkey is the ninth EU candidate country, but its accession process has been suspended. 

Hopes for economic improvement

For Jasna Pejovic from Montenegro, EU membership would give her country "more legitimacy." 

Montenegro is the country furthest ahead in the queue to join the EU, and 80% of its population wants to be part of the bloc. Speaking to DW at the office of her e-learning startup Flourish in the capital, Podgorica, Jasna says being an EU citizen would be a stamp of approval for her business.

"[Investors] say: 'We never did business with Montenegro, and we don't know how to do it.' I asked them: 'If we were part of the European Union, would it be different?' And they say it would be different. Because they know about the European Union," she said.

With a population of just 630,000, Montenegro is a small country like many in the Western Balkans. It wouldn't be much of a strain on the EU's budget.

"If the EU were to take in Montenegro tomorrow morning and pay for it, literally pay for it. No one would notice, so it's clearly affordable," said Nathalie Tocci, an advisor to two former EU foreign policy commissioners. But, for the EU, "the economic upside is not there," she added.

Mila Kasalica, an economist and finance chief of the municipality of Zeta in Montenegro, believes EU membership would transform her country. "We have around 45% to 48% of the living standards of EU countries. That is the big dream in the accession process: Converging in real terms with [EU] living standards."

Admitting the Western Balkan countries would bring economic opportunities to millions of people at a manageable cost to the EU. Yet, most Western Balkan countries have been EU candidates for over a decade. North Macedonia, even for two.  

Ukraine's complicated EU candidacy

More recently, a new candidate for the EU accession has emerged on the eastern horizon: Ukraine. Hard-pressed by the Russian invasion, the country received candidate status in June 2022.

But the most populous — and poorest — of all candidate countries would be "a different ball game," says Nathalie Tocci, "because of its size, because of its agriculture sector, because of its average wealth, and, above all, because it's a country at war with €500 billion in reconstruction and still counting."

If Ukraine were to join the EU, it would become the bloc's biggest agricultural producer and weigh most heavily on the bloc's finances.

While all of the EU's farmers combined till about 157 million hectares (387.35 million acres) of arable land, Ukraine would add a further 41 million hectares.

For some current members, that would mean unwelcome competition in the single market.

Poland, for example, has become one of the most competitive food producers in the EU since joining in 2004. If Ukraine joins the EU, this role will be threatened, because Ukraine's industrial farms dwarf European ones. "We would most probably go bankrupt. Because we would be easily flooded with the much cheaper products from Ukraine," says Lukasz Czech, a Polish grain and pig farmer from Parczew, who receives part of his income from EU subsidies.

How much would expansion strain the EU budget?

According to an internal investigation by the European Council, admitting all candidates would cost the EU €256 billion ($272 billion), with Ukraine alone estimated to receive €186 billion over seven years, not including reconstruction expenses.

Thu Nguyen thinks "the financial impact would be not as high as some of the numbers suggest."

However, Thu Nguyen cannot say exactly where the extra money will come from. "It is possible that it comes from the current member states. It is possible that the EU raises its own money through new resources. For example, there are discussions about a plastic tax or carbon adjustment mechanisms."

Some of the EU member states are pressing ahead with the accession process at an unprecedented speed. Whether or not they succeed, however, will depend on the future makeup of the new EU Parliament to be elected in June.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

In the Afigya Kwabre district of Ghana's Ashanti region, people like Kingsley Owusu are known for growing Ghana's leading cash crop. Owusu and his community have been growing cocoa beans for over 30 years.

For many years, the cocoa harvest allowed him to take care of his children, who have all grown to adulthood. But now, at the age of 60, Owusu is worried about his own livelihood.

"My production levels have gone down because of climate change and diseases. And illegal mining activities are also contributing to this," Owusu told DW, adding that he barely makes enough to get by.

Owusu used to produce about 10 bags of cocoa per season, but now he struggles to fill even three. As a result, he has far less cash in hand than he used to.

Ghana steps in to help cocoa farmers

The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), which regulates the sector, recently announced that it would significantly increase what it pays cocoa farmers per ton.

COCOBOD said in a statement that "the increase in the producer price of cocoa has become necessary to enhance the income of cocoa farmers."

From the previous rate of 20,928 Ghanaian cedis (€1,460/$1,557) per ton, it pledged an increase of nearly 60%, meaning it would pay farmers 33,120 cedis per ton moving forward. That translates to 2,070 cedis per bag of cocoa with a gross weight of 64 kilograms.

But farmers like Owusu have taken issue with the government's new pricing policy.

Ghana's cocoa farmers feel left out of decision-making

"Per the world price, we should be receiving more," he told DW, highlighting that this month, the price of cocoa on the world market had reached $10,000 per ton.

The price for cocoa is chiefly determined at commodity futures markets in New York and London, which are largely driven by supply and demand.

However, the way cocoa beans are sold is based on different standards in each country, with cocoa trading systems across Africa often varying greatly in their structures.

In Ivory Coast, for example, the leading producer on the continent, farmers can sell their beans to cooperatives they belong to or trade directly with private buying companies.

But in Ghana, the world's second-largest exporter of cocoa, there is a long-established mechanism that limits farmers in a number of ways. They cannot trade with external buyers and thus lack control over their own pricing.

They can only sell their beans to the state agency COCOBOD, which then trades that product on the global market.

Moses Djan Asiedu, board secretary of the West African Cocoa Farmers Organization, agrees with the concerns voiced by local farmers in Ghana. "COCOBOD is a pricemaker, and the price established [is] beyond [the control of] the farmers. And we think that the facility that is establishing the price is not a fair thing," he told DW.

Purpose of Ghana's centralized cocoa market

Meanwhile, the spokesperson for COCOBOD, Fiifi Boafo, told DW that when cocoa prices on the global market increase, it does not immediately affect farmers' pockets.

"The increment in price [changes] at the international market is something that we get excited about — excited because this provides farmers with opportunities to improve revenue," he explained, adding that they deal in "forward sales" with farmers.

But Ghana's policy of forwarding cocoa sales prices means producers are reliant on the prices the government agrees to, without having an independent say in the matter.

COCOBOD said this policy is intended to allow for both the government and cocoa-producing farmers to have some collective control over the mechanisms of supply and demand on the commodities market, securing future cocoa supplies to address any risks in price volatility while also stabilizing the market.

But Asiedu said this arrangement leaves cocoa-producing countries like Ghana helpless in securing fair pricing for all, and said this must change. "There is no fairness. That is why COCOBOD also agrees to [accept] whatever is given," he said.

Asiedu said local farmers in Ghana deserve to get more than just a fraction of the price their beans are sold for, and blames government involvement in the production process for shortchanging producers.

"The government only [looks at] the cost involved in handling the cocoa before they offer a price for the farmers," he told DW.

Boafo agreed that this policy of forward selling Ghana's cocoa may not present farmers with opportunities to reap the full benefits of their output, especially now that prices are up on the world market.

However, he believes Ghana's policy also has its benefits, and that is has protected farmers in the past by establishing reliable rates for their crops.

Are farmers facing an untamable market?

According to Asiedu of the West African Cocoa Farmers Organization, Ghana might be running out of time to save the cocoa sector. Many farmers are either abandoning their businesses or retiring without having anyone who could inherit their farm.

"Most farmers, about 70%, are overaged. And they lack the strength to maintain their farms, especially if they do not get enough money ... for their labor. So they abandon their farms," Asiedu explained.

To halt this trend, both Ivory Coast and Ghana took an unusual step in 2019 to improve farmers' living conditions. They declared that cocoa buyers would have to pay an additional premium of $400 per metric ton of cocoa beans purchased to compensate for the changing and aging cocoa labor market — the so-called living income differential.

However, a new study by the humanitarian organization Oxfam, released at the World Cocoa Conference, shows that this approach has failed, partly on account of the rising commodity prices.

But the policy also crashed in part because traders also pay a negotiated premium for cocoa based on qualities like taste, fat content or bean size — what is called the "country differential."

"At least if [the price on the global market] came in at a certain level where the farmer would always be comfortable enough to still produce and the buyer would also be able to afford [cocoa], we could sustain this," Boafo told DW. "But in this situation, where the market is not working in the interest of the cocoa farmer, it becomes difficult for the sustainability of the industry."

Oxfam's study reveals that cocoa buyers simply reduced the country differentials for Ivory Coast and Ghana after these countries had introduced the $400 premium to support farmers.

No more chocolate?

Meanwhile, another major crisis is already brewing on the cocoa horizon in these two leading producer countries: production levels have gone down drastically in recent years.

Ghana produced about 750,000 metric tons of cocoa beans in the crop season between 2021 and 2022. However, production has dropped sharply since then. Ghana's cocoa output for the season between 2023 and 2024 is now expected to be down by almost 40%.

Boafo said this bean shortage was the reason recent prices exceeded $10,000 per ton on the world market. 

Asiedu explained that in addition to not fetching fair prices for cocoa beans, the sector also faces serious threats from climate change and other factors.

"We now have unusual rainfall, unusual sunshine, and sometimes you cannot predict this. We also have quite a number of [other] issues, like diseases, which farmers would have to control," he told DW. "And sometimes access to chemicals to combat [diseases] also becomes an issue."

Boafo added that smart farming methods needed to be adopted to protect the sector and fight global warming. "Climate change is a major concern," he said. It is key that we are able to deal with its effects."

But whether the issue is climate change, commodity prices, pests, output rates or incentives to continue the cocoa trade, it would appear that the countries that produce the precious beans don't have much power to influence the price outcome.

That power, it seems, lies almost exclusively with the chocolate buyers and their middlemen.

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson

Germany is grappling with a critical labor shortage and aging population, with projections indicating a deficit of 7 million skilled workers by 2035.

With some 700,000 vacancies currently unfilled, the country's economic growth potential has dropped to about 0.7% now from around 2% in the 1980s. It's set to fall further to 0.5% if the country fails to resolve this problem, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has said, stressing the importance of migration in bridging this widening gap.

Engaging the Indian student population in the German workforce may be part of the solution.

Tapping into the international student talent pool

According to the Federal Statistical Office, there are around 43,000 Indian students enrolled in German universities.

International students make up around 14% of all students in the country, according to Michael Flacke, spokesperson for the German Academic Exchange Service. International students are often the "so-called ideal immigrants" because they have already lived in Germany and learned the language, Flacke told DW.

"At the same time, we know that learning the German language, finding one's way in the German university system, which is very much geared toward independence, and the transition to the labor market poses particular challenges for international students," he said.

Enzo Weber, an employment research specialist at the University of Regensburg, said that tapping into international talent pools becomes essential as Germany faces an aging population and a shortage of skilled workers.

"By providing opportunities to international students, the state not only aims to attract skilled individuals but also to cultivate a pipeline of talent for the workforce," he said.

Work alongside studies

Germany's recent Skilled Immigration Act would also allow international students to work 20 hours per week — double the previous limit.

Suryansh is pursuing his Ph.D. in computational materials science and theoretical nanophysics at Dresden University of Technology. Speaking with DW, the 35-year-old student said the new laws are in favor of students working.

"If you have the right skills and certification, with a decent salary, life becomes easier. Also, there are options for permanent residency," he said, adding that opportunities can be found in a range of fields, including high-tech sectors such as semiconductorsand quantum computing.

"From what I have seen, the placement rate is quite good," he said, adding that many people in his lab received a job offer within two to three months.

Though the Skilled Immigration Act in Germany prioritizes qualifications, challenges remain due to the complexity of the German education system, according to Weber.

"The law's effectiveness depends on factors like digitalization and practical integration support," he said.

IT, engineering students could help industry thrive

Flacke said the shortage of skilled labor is particularly severe not only in the care and health care sector, but also in IT and engineering professions.

Indian students in Germany are enrolled in IT and engineering courses at an above-average rate, making them an important group for the labor market and for combating the shortage of skilled workers, he said.

Germany is traditionally very competitive on the international stage when it comes to engineering sciences, so the high proportion of Indian students in IT and engineering can help the country "maintain this advantage in global economic competition."

Mohammad Rahman Khan, a 26-year-old student from India, chose Leibniz University Hannover to pursue his studies in mechatronics and robotics.

In Germany, "from my observations, there is a significant demand for tech and programming-related roles compared to other sectors," he said.

Weber from the University of Regensburg said Germany's engineering sector is experiencing a high demand for skilled professionals, particularly amid transformations driven by digitalization in areas such as machinery and energy.

"With a scarcity of labor looming and the German cohort shrinking due to a birth rate of 1.4, the influx of international talent becomes a critical factor for sustaining competitiveness," he explained. He stressed the importance of attracting and retaining skilled individuals in the technical sector to meet the workforce demands of German industry.

Germany still to overcome many policy hurdles

Riya Joseph, 24, moved to Germany from the southern Indian state of Kerala in 2023 to pursue her Ph.D. in cancer research at the Dresden University of Technology. She told DW she feels the academic journey in Germany, from research assistant to a postdoctoral position, is "promising."

But a lot of work still needs to be done. Proactive measures need to be implemented by universities and employers to ensure a smooth transition for students into the workforce. Students still need legal clarity to be able to stay in Germany after their studies and obtain employment contracts.

According to Weber, "this involves learning from countries like Canada, establishing clear communication channels, addressing legal formalities effectively, and providing clarity on staying after studies."

Additionally, considering global trends like the aging workforce in the US, Germany must "make immigration laws competitive and accessible, streamline processes, offer diverse visa options, and promote seamless integration for international students and workers," Weber added.

Edited by: Sou-Jie van Brunnersum

As the United States and European Union (EU) consider new economic measures against Iran, the Islamic Republic is touting its resilience to Western boycotts. According to the government in Tehran, the country has exported more oil than ever in the last six years, despite massive sanctions imposed by former US president Donald Trump in 2018.

Last month, Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji said oil exports had "generated more than $35 billion [€32.8 billion]" in 2023. The British business daily Financial Times quoted him as saying that while Iran's enemies wanted to stop its exports, "today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts."

To Iran's regime, the billions of dollars in oil revenue are instrumental in maintaining acquiescence at home. Much of the population is suffering the impact of international sanctions, which have led to a depreciation of the national currency, the rial.

Soaring inflation

Iranian inflation reached new heights recently, climbing to about 40% in February. Any exacerbation due to escalating geopolitical tensions will only stoke consumer prices further, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economics professor at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, told DW.

He also noted that the US dollar had gained about 15% against the Iranian rial in recent weeks, amid expectations of heightened conflict with Israel.

"This exchange rate devaluation very quickly translates into higher prices, because Iran imports a lot of types of commodities, and many of the commodities it produces inside Iran also have an import component," the Middle East expert said, adding that the country is "bracing for higher inflation."

According to Salehi-Isfahani, the living standard of Iran's middle class has also steeply declined in recent years and is now "back to 20 years ago."

Oil: the main moneymaker

According to German data provider Statista, the most important contributor to Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was the services sector with 47%, followed by industry (40%), and agriculture (12.5%).

Most of the industrial sector's revenue comes from the oil industry, with more than 90% of crude oil being shipped to China. Western sanctions have had little impact on Iran's oil trade with Beijing, but Iranian leaders are increasingly concerned that oil installations could become the target of an Israeli military attack.

After the initial shock following Trump's 2018 sanctions, Iran has returned to 80% of its former export volume. Most experts attribute this to the easing of sanctions since US President Joe Biden took office.

"Iran's economy has indeed grown, in part due to the increase in oil exports... the GDP increase amounts to about 5% per year, which is not bad compared to what happened in the region overall after the COVID-19 pandemic," Salehi-Isfahani said. He added that many financial resources had been invested in expanding the military and other regime-stabilizing measures.

Corruption and lack of transparency

In Iran, significant amounts of state income are said to disappear into the opaque structures of the government in Tehran. The Corruption Perception Index by international organization Transparency International ranks Iran in place 149 of 180 countries.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — a paramilitary elite force within the armed forces — and numerous religious organizations reportedly control central parts of the economy. They do not pay taxes, nor do they have to submit balance sheets. They are primarily answerable to Iran's head of state and commander-in-chief, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Although oil export revenues have increasingly stabilized in recent years, Iran is anything but an economic heavyweight contender. With a population of around 88 million, it is almost ten times larger than Israel, home to 9 million. Yet its GDP in 2022 was significantly lower, ending the year at $413 billion, compared to Israel's $525 billion.

Protecting the oil industry

Iran's ability to sustain a war with Israel very much depends on whether new Western sanctions can significantly reduce Iranian oil exports.

In the first three months of the year, Tehran managed to sell an average of 1.56 million barrels (one barrel is about 159 liters, or 35 gallons) of crude oil per day. Almost all of this went to China. According to the data provider Vortexa, this was the highest volume since the third quarter of 2018.

Fernando Ferreira, head of the geopolitical risk service of the Rapidan Energy Group in the US, told Financial Times that "Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention."

"If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China," he added.

So, is the Iranian economy currently prepared for a possible military escalation with Israel?

Salehi-Isfahani thinks that Iran "is not ready" to sustain an extended military conflict, "which is why they have been very careful not to get too involved in the Gaza war. Rather than intending to do harm, the attack they made on Israel was more symbolic."

This article was originally written in German.

The biggest democratic exercise in human history is taking place across India. Close to 1 billion people are eligible to vote in parliamentary elections that will take place over 6 weeks, starting April 19  at more than 1 million polling stations stretching from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is seeking to extend his decade-long premiership, sounds bullish on one key issue: the economy. He and his ruling BJP party frequently talk about "Viksit Bharat 2047," which translates as "Developed India 2047" — a pledge to make India a fully developed economy by its independence centenary.

Yet there is a variety of views and data around how the Indian economy has performed under Modi.

India heading for the global top three

Arvind Panagariya, professor of Indian political economy with Columbia University in New York, was recently appointed by Modi to chair India's influential Finance Commission. He told DW that the data suggests India will become the world's third largest economy "by 2026 or 2027."

"There is a lot of optimism about India's economic growth and the fact that given the global environment, we are amongst the fastest growing economies in the world," Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist with GlobalData TSLombard, told DW.

India's strong growth makes it an outlier among major economies at the moment. Its GDP was up 8.4% in the final three months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, and almost 1% higher than the previous quarter. That puts it well ahead of other top 10 global economies.

Question marks over high unemployment

There are question marks though, and one particularly dogged problem is unemployment. It is particularly high among younger people and a major issue given the country's massive and fast-growing population. Unemployment is currently close to 10%.

Sushant Singh from the Center for Policy Research in India says there is "no plan" to deal with the problem. "The demographic dividend has completely become a demographic disaster," he told DW.

He identifies other economic issues that have arisen under Modi and highlights India's relatively weak data on both manufacturing and foreign direct investment (FDI).

Net FDI into India is lower now than it was when Modi took over 10 years ago, according to data from HSBC. "Now that's serious," says Singh, "because that means people are not investing in manufacturing or industry or corporates."

While Modi has driven a domestic manufacturing agenda called "Make in India," manufacturing still accounts for only around 12% of jobs in the country. "We went basically from a farm economy state to a services led economy with the manufacturing sector just stalling in between," says Deveshwar.

India's economic reforms

Panagariya says Modi has introduced key reforms on taxation, bankruptcy law and real estate which have "made a major difference" to the economy.

Deveshwar says the record on economic reforms has been more mixed. "I don't think that we can get to where he's saying that we can get to without the kind of tough economic structural reforms that India has to do to achieve those lofty goals," she says.

She says Modi's ruling National Democratic Alliance, of which his BJP is the biggest party, has failed to achieve annual targets around privatization of state-run firms. She also points to the three controversial farm laws which Modi's government introduced before repealing them in 2021 following mass protests.

Poverty and inequality

Yet Deveshwar believes Modi is popular as much for his ability to tap into public sentiment on economic matters, in evidence when he repealed the farm laws. "To his credit, he really has his finger on the pulse of the nation. And if he feels that something is not going to go down well in India, he will step back," she says.

That plays into another reason for Modi's appeal. India remains an extremely poor country across many measurements, yet World Bank data shows that the share of Indians living in extreme poverty has continued to fall during Modi's time in office.

Panagariya says the government has been especially active in terms of welfare schemes in rural India. The country's huge agrarian and rural population is seen as vital to Modi if he is to win a third term.

"Particularly in the rural areas, everybody is receiving something or the other from the central government," Panagariya says. He points to rural housing schemes, toilet construction initiatives, cash transfers, food security legislation and the widespread distribution of cooking gas as evidence of how Modi has tried to distribute resources to the poorest parts of the country.

But there is a lot of disagreement on how India's poorest have fared under Modi. Sushant Singh says inequality has increased in the last 10 years.

"India has become more unequal," he says, pointing to data from a recent report by the World Inequality Lab. "This inequality has really increased under Modi, both income inequality and wealth inequality."

"Per capita, India is the poorest country in the G20," he adds, noting that both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have surpassed India in per capita wealth terms. "Bangladesh was a basket case economy, but India is poorer than Bangladesh now in per capita terms," he says.

Modi's infrastructure investment

One area where Modi's economic achievements are quite visible is infrastructure. The pre-election budget for 2024 pledged an increase of 11% on capital expenditure for roads, railways and airports, taking it to around $134 billion (€125 billion).

Modi has already invested heavily in infrastructure, both digital and physical, during his time in office. Panagariya says the investment is justified and vital if India is to achieve the kind of economic goals the prime minister speaks of.

Deveshwar agrees. "You can't really call it populist," she says. "It is very necessary. One of the key problems that India has had for decades is its creaking infrastructure. And the policy direction now is very positive."

It's one tangible area where India's journey towards developed economic status can perhaps be measured and part of several reasons why some economists, such as Panagariya, believe the election is already seen as a "done deal" for Modi.

Yet even if a third Modi election victory looks likely, focusing on lofty targets such as "Viksit Bharat 2047" looks more like campaigning than reality to some.

"It's feel-good talk and far enough out that no one will hold him accountable for 2047," says Deveshwar.

Singh says Modi's 2047 talk is part of a long-established political playbook. "Glories of the past and possible glories of the future," he says. "It's a dream, a vision that he's trying to sell to the people."

With polls suggesting Modi's government are clearly on course for a third term in power, the people seem to be buying it.

Edited by: Rob Mudge

Editor's note: The article, originally published on April 2, 2024, has been updated to reflect that polling in India's election has begun.

On January 19, 2023, DW launches Cannabis Cowboys, its first investigative podcast.

The eight-part true crime series is about a cannabis investment platform called JuicyFields that has affected thousands worldwide. For more than two years, the Berlin-based start-up collected huge amounts of money from from internet users, promising huge returns through investments in medicinal cannabis.

DW business reporters Andreas Becker and Nicolas Martin had an early hunch that something was wrong. Becker and Martin thought the promised rates of return were good to be true.

The pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has reportedly withdrawn its COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria, also known as Covishield, worldwide, citing commercial reasons for the decision.

"As multiple, variant COVID-19 vaccines have since been developed, there is a surplus of available updated vaccines. This has led to a decline in demand for Vaxzevria, which is no longer being manufactured or supplied," various media outlets quoted the company was quoted as saying.

A document hosted by the EU's European Medicines Agency website confirmed that Vaxzevria was no longer authorized in the region.

In an email to DW, virologist Wolfgang Preiser said "the demand for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is very low and unlikely to pick up significantly in the foreseeable future, so I understand the reasoning."

Vaxzevria saved millions of lives 

AstraZeneca, who developed the vaccine with Oxford University, said it was "incredibly proud of the role Vaxzevria played in ending the global pandemic."

More than three billion doses were supplied globally. Independent studies estimate that more than 6.5 million lives were saved in the first year that it was used.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was developed within the first months of the pandemic in 2020. It was first approved in the UK on December 30, 2020, with other countries granting the vaccine conditional marketing authorization later in 2020 due to the urgency of the pandemic.

Vaxzevria was effective against initial ancestral variants of COVID-19 virus — the alpha variant — but was less effective against newer variants of COVID-19, such as the omicron variant. 

Many governments, including in the UK, Germany and Australia, had stopped using the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine before its withdrawal from the market.

"We are still distributing COVID-19 vaccines, but none of them are AstraZeneca any more. They were the first manufacturer with which we concluded our arrangement in 2022," Olly Cann, director of communications at the international organization Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, told DW.

The latest COVID-19 vaccine advice issued by the World Health Organisation in April advised that COVID-19 vaccines should target the JN.1 lineage of the virus, which is now the most dominant variant.

However, at the time of writing, Preiser said relatively few severe infections were being observed "due to a high level of population immunity stemming from past vaccination, and often also past infection."

Was the vaccine withdrawn due to side effects?

Although the vaccine was found to be safe and effective overall, it carried a very small risk of developing blood clots as a side effect. The condition is known as "thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS)."

The rare syndrome occurred in two to three people per 100,000 who were vaccinated with the Vaxzevria vaccine.

While studies found the vaccine did not increase the risk of heart attacks or strokes, it has been under intense scrutiny due to TTS.

"The side effects are real and may have serious consequences for those affected, but as with all interventions, a careful risk-benefit analysis [was] needed. During the pandemic, the balance was definitely in favor of using the vaccine," said Preiser, who is based at Stellenbosch University in South Africa.

In a UK High Court case, AstraZeneca is being sued by more than 50 people, who claim to have been affected by side effects.

The British Telegraph newspaper, quoted as the first to break the news of Vaxzevria's withdrawal from the market, reported that AstraZeneca had admitted in the court case in February 2024 that the vaccine "can, in very rare cases, cause TTS."

AstraZeneca said the decision to withdraw the vaccine was not linked to the court case or any risks associated with TTS. 

Edited by: Zulfikar Abbany