Shortly after last week's €1 billion ($1.08 billion) deal between the European Union (EU) and Lebanon was announced, it quickly became clear the arrangement was not particularly popular in the host country.

"The Lebanese ... people are not for sale, nor for rent," one opposition politician in Lebanon, Gebran Bassil, stated in an interview.

"The ruling junta has exchanged the security, stability and future of the Lebanese for 30 pieces of silver," politicians from an opposition coalition complained in a statement.

"It is propaganda from Brussels to Beirut, without guaranteeing governance or investigating corruption," Halime El Kaakour, a politician who took part in anti-corruption protests in 2019 before being elected into office, argued on social media.

Why has the EU-Lebanon deal sparked outrage?

The deal was announced last Thursday during a visit to Beirut by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides. It consists of a €1 billion aid package for Lebanon, starting this year and running until 2027. Most of the money — around €736 million — is intended to help Lebanon care for its refugee population, most of which is Syrian. The rest is to help Lebanon improve border and migration control.

Lebanon has one of the highest number of refugees per capita in the world. The country, with a population of over 5.2 million, hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrians, most of whom fled from next-door Syria during their country's civil war.

Since the start of the war around 2012, there have been tensions between native Lebanese and displaced Syrian residents. Lebanon's recent economic and political crises have only worsened this.

Populist politicians have called for undocumented Syrians to be expelled, and rights groups have reported that Lebanese security forces are forcibly repatriating Syrian migrants by picking them up off the street, then dropping them at the border. In Syria, forces loyal to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad are likely to imprison, torture or kill returnees, or conscript them into the Syrian army.

As a result of these growing tensions and deportations, more Syrians have been trying to leave Lebanon. Record numbers have been arriving in Cyprus, the closest European territory, seeking asylum. In the first three months of this year, Cyprus recorded 2,000 new arrivals by sea. Over the same period last year, there were 78.

The European aid package is supposed to help remedy this. But in fact, observers told DW, it is likely to make things worse.

European bribery? 

Inside Lebanon, the accusations of EU bribery refer to the fact that some Lebanese think the EU is paying to keep unwanted Syrians in their country. In fact, the controversy got so bad that a few days after the Europeans' visit, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati publicly denied the country was being "bribed" during a television interview.

In some ways, you can understand why the Lebanese might think that way, says Philippe Dam, Human Rights Watch's EU director based in Brussels. "There could be a bit of truth to that when you look at the transactional approach the EU is taking to irregular migration and basically paying other states to keep people away," he explained, noting similar deals struck with Turkey and Tunisia. 

Additionally the details of the EU-Lebanon deal remain unclear. This is also causing tension, Dam told DW. There may well be some positive steps in the deal, such as support to basic services in Lebanon.

"But [von der Leyen] also said some very problematic things," Dam continued. "She announced support for the Lebanese security forces on migration and border management which could be problematic. Because these people are the ones practicing coerced deportation of Syrians," he explained.

"She also mentioned a structured approach to voluntary returns and referred to support for Syrians living back in Syria in a way that favors returns over true protection," he pointed out, referring to the fact that rights organizations, including his own, worry that this may be a step towards recognizing parts of Syria as safe to return to.

"The war in Syria is not over," the governments of Germany, the US, UK and France said in a joint statement in March. "The conditions for safe, dignified and voluntary returns of refugees to Syria, supported by the international community, are not yet met." 

 

A 'dangerous' deal for Syrian refugees

This was never about supporting Syrian refugees, adds Kelly Petillo, program manager for Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "This is first and foremost about preventing migration to Cyprus and to the rest of Europe."

Giving money to the Lebanese military "means more insecurity for Syrian refugees," Petillo added. "They face more pressure to leave by themselves or be deported. That will result in the opposite of what von der Leyen apparently wants to achieve, creating more pressure for Syrians to move towards Europe."

Willem Staes, the Middle East policy officer for Belgium-based organization, 11.11.11, which brings together 60 non-governmental and rights organizations, agreed.

Staes points to a survey conducted by his organization in late April of Syrians in Lebanon. The survey showed the overwhelming majority of respondents to be very worried about being deported amid the deteriorating security situation for Syrians in Lebanon. Eighty-eight percent said this had a direct impact on their decision to try to reach Europe.

Lebanon deal 'motivated by electoral fears'

"[The EU-Lebanon deal] is really some kind of stupidity Olympics," Staes argues. "Instead of taking effective action against these deportations, von der Leyen is going to give the Lebanese army more money and increase their capacity to violate international law."

There's no way it's going to make life better for Syrian refugees or even Lebanese citizens, he said. "This deal is dangerous and will lead to more deaths, more violence and more irregular migration," he told DW. "It is indicative of problematic European policies that are solely motivated by electoral fears, rather than realities on the ground."

The only potentially good thing about the EU-Lebanon deal was the fact that it puts renewed focus on Lebanon's problems, experts agreed.

"EU action is long overdue," Staes said. A winning plan would involve Lebanon ending forcible deportations, giving more Syrians temporary residence and work permits, he argued. Meanwhile the EU could facilitate more legal migration to Europe and put together an economic package to help the Lebanese people.

"The expert community has been calling for a EU-Lebanon deal for a very long time," Petillo concluded. "Unfortunately it's gone in the wrong direction."

Edited by: Maren Sass

The spontaneous celebrations on the streets of Gaza didn't last long on Monday night.

Shortly after Hamas had announced that it had accepted a cease-fire deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar, heavy explosions were reported in the eastern part of Rafah, where the Israeli army had ordered people to evacuate immediately on Monday morning.

Late on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Office said that the cease-fire proposal fell short of Israel's demands and that the war cabinet had agreed to continue the operation in Rafah.

Officials suggested that Hamas, designated as a terrorist group by the US, the EU and others, had agreed to a different proposal to the one Israel had negotiated. Nevertheless, Israeli officials said they would send a delegation to continue talks with the mediators. 

On Tuesday morning, a military official confirmed that Israeli troops had launched what they described as a targeted operation in certain areas of eastern Rafah and were controlling the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing.

The gateway to Egypt remains the only option for Palestinians to leave the territory and is one of the main crossings for aid to enter Gaza. It remained closed, as well as the Kerem Shalom crossing, where a mortar attack by Hamas had killed four Israeli soldiers on Sunday.

The fast-moving developments left many in Rafah confused and fearful. Ghada Rafiq, 30, whose family was heading to Khan Younis, hoped that an Israeli ground operation would still be averted. 

Desperate Gazans with nowhere to go

"The thought of returning to a tent with no water and minimal services is frightening," Rafiq told DW by phone. "Where will we go? What are we going to do? We desperately want a cease-fire and a truce. I pray to God for a quick cease-fire agreement and for the army not to enter Rafah."

The day had begun with devastating news for the thousands of people sheltering in the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah. In the early hours of the morning, the Israeli military had dropped leaflets and sent recorded phone messages to people in eastern Rafah, ordering them to leave the area and relocate near Al-Mawasi on the western shore of the Gaza Strip. 

On Monday morning, a military official told foreign journalists that the evacuation was "limited" and that the army had ordered some 100,000 people in specific neighborhoods to move to "an expanded humanitarian zone" near the coastal road. 

Thousands of Gazans on the move again

For months, the threat of an imminent Israeli ground offensive has hung over Rafah and its residents. Soon after, people began to leave, packing their belongings into cars or on donkey carts. Others simply walked with a few bags in their hands on this unseasonably cold and rainy day. Once again, thousands were on the move, exhausted by months of bombing and displacement.

Rafiq was one of them. She awoke on Monday morning to the sound of her mobile phone ringing.

"It was a recorded message from the Israeli army ordering us to evacuate eastern Rafah. We live in the al-Janina neighborhood, east of Rafah, one of the areas designated for evacuation," she said.

The young Palestinian woman is from northern Gaza and, like many others, has been displaced several times in the past seven months after the Israeli military ordered people to leave the area.

"We were first in the Jabalia refugee camp, then we went to the Nuseirat refugee camp, then to Deir al-Balah [in central Gaza], and then to Rafah," she said.

The night before had been difficult, she said, because of intensive bombing. 

"Since early this morning, we've heard artillery shells in the eastern regions, with some targets being hit with airstrikes," said Rafiq, who has been displaced together with her four siblings and their parents.

"We decided to leave our home and head to Khan Younis. We brought a tent from our time in Deir al-Balah. We are gripped by fear and anxiety about what's to come," she said. 

Hamas officials said at least 22 people were killed in Rafah on Monday night. More than 34,500 people have been killed so far, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, since Israel launched a retaliatory war following Hamas' terrorist attacks on southern communities in Israel on October 7. 

Israel intent on Rafah offensive

Netanyahu has said repeatedly that with or without a deal to free some of the 128 remaining hostages taken on October 7, he will launch a full-scale ground offensive on Rafah. 

Western and regional countries, among them Israel's closest ally the United States, have warned against such an operation, saying it could lead to massive civilian casualties. Israel accuses Hamas of hiding among the civilian population and says it must enter Rafah to destroy four Hamas battalions to win the war.

More than a million people have sought refuge in Gaza's southernmost city on the border with Egypt and simply don't know where else to go. It's unclear what happens to those who can't leave: The elderly, the sick or those who simply don't want to leave because they don't think it's safe enough.

Fadel Qandeel, 54, is from Rafah and decided to stay in his house, even though his family lives near one of the evacuation areas. 

"Today is scary in every sense of the word. Despite earlier threats of a military operation in Rafah, the atmosphere has been different since this morning," Qandeel told DW by phone. "As leaflets were thrown into Rafah for evacuation, the scenes of people carrying simple belongings and leaving their homes were painful," he said. 

The father of seven said he simply didn't know where to go with his large family. He hopes a cease-fire will be agreed soon, but the constant ups and downs of the negotiations have taken a heavy toll.

"The positive news of the cease-fire has eased my fear a little, but I'm not sure if it will work. I'm not optimistic, but I hope to be proved wrong," Qandeel said.

Edited by: Rob Mudge; Davis Alley Van Opdorp

When will the Rafah offensive begin?

Discussions about a possible military offensive on Rafah, a city in southern Gaza, have been ongoing in Israel since early February. Israeli media reports in late April said troops had finished their preparations for the ground offensive. All that remained was for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give the word.

After the failure of indirect negotiations with Hamas regarding a cease-fire and the release of hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners over the weekend, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said military action was required in Rafah, and there was "no other alternative," according to news agencies.

On Monday, the Israeli army ordered 100,000 Palestinians to evacuate parts of the city ahead of a "limited" operation against "terrorist forces," including Hamas, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by the German government, the EU, the US and some Arab states.

Some of the hostages taken by Hamas in October 2023 are thought to be held in Rafah.

Civilians have been told to go to the town of al-Mawasi near the coast, around 20 kilometers (about 12 miles) north of Rafah, to an "expanded humanitarian area" with field hospitals, tents and food.

In April, the Israeli army said it had purchased 40,000 tents to prepare for evacuation ahead of its planned ground offensive. 

On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it would use leaflets, phone calls and text messages to inform people in Gaza where to go. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the IDF plans to "proceed in phases" evacuating neighborhoods in advance before moving onto new areas. 

Army officials recently estimated about six weeks of "continuous fighting" would be necessary.

In recent months, several of Israel's allies, including the US, have warned against an offensive in Rafah. Hundreds of thousands of refugees from other areas of Gaza are currently in the overcrowded city, and the situation for the local population is already catastrophic.

What's the situation for people on the ground in Rafah?

More than 80% of Gaza's total population of 2.3 million has been displaced since Israel began its assault in October 2023. The majority of the housing and infrastructure in the coastal enclave has already been destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. With the IDF in control of northern Gaza, up to 1.4 million people have sought refuge in Rafah, which is now the most densely populated city in Gaza.

Refugee camps in the area around Rafah are full. Food, medicine and drinking water are in short supply, with aid shipments blocked from entering. In southern Gaza, nearly a quarter of the population has been affected by catastrophic food insecurity, with children bearing the brunt.

In a guest article for the British daily newspaper The Guardian on May 1, UNICEF global spokesperson James Elder warned of the consequences of a strike on Rafah, saying the city would "implode if it is targeted militarily."

"A military offensive in Rafah will be catastrophic because it is a city of children — some 600,000 of them." 

Why is Rafah important for Israel?

Israel believes Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza. On October 7, Hamas members attacked Israel, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 people. Around 240 people were taken to Gaza as hostages.

Israel has claimed that up to four of the 24 Hamas brigades are still hiding in or under Rafah. Hamas has been weakened by seven months of fighting with Israel but hasn't been defeated militarily. Although the number of rocket attacks on Israel has fallen sharply, they haven't stopped completely.

An Israeli analyst previously told DW that Israel has, to date, destroyed 70-80% of Hamas' arsenal, a figure that could not be independently verified.

How has Israel said it will protect civilians in Rafah?

It's unclear how the already suffering population of Gaza will receive supplies during the ground offensive. While allies have warned of catastrophe, an IDF spokesperson said the supply of humanitarian aid to the local population would continue during the evacuation operation. The idea is that this should be brought to the enclave via the Israeli port of Ashdod, which is some 30 kilometers (about 18.5 miles) to the north.

Israel has temporarily closed the Kerem Shalom border crossing between Gaza and Israel to humanitarian transports after a Hamas rocket attack on Sunday killed three IDF soldiers.

The US has built a temporary port off the coast of the northern Gaza Strip, to facilitate the delivery of aid supplies to the civilian population.

Around 1,000 US soldiers are currently guarding the site.

What has been the international reaction?

Hamas has spoken of a "dangerous escalation that will have consequences." According to Israel, Hamas has prepared its fighters and supplied them with provisions and weapons.

Meanwhile, the US continues to press for a peaceful solution. According to media reports, CIA Director William Burns is still hoping for a deal.

In February, US President Joe Biden called on the Israeli prime minister not to begin the offensive without a convincing plan to protect the civilian population.

In mid-April, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ruled out American support for such an operation. "We cannot support a major military operation in Rafah," he said, adding that this would have "terrible consequences" for people.

The German Foreign Ministry has also warned that an assault could lead to a "humanitarian catastrophe."

Egypt fears many refugees could cross over from Rafah, a border city,  into the Egyptian region of Sinai.

Egypt's state-run channel Al-Qahera News quoted an unnamed high-level official as saying it was the Hamas attack on the Kerem Shalom border crossing on Sunday that led to the impasse in the cease-fire negotiations and that attempts to prevent an escalation were ongoing.

This article was originally written in German and published on April 27, 2024. It was updated on May 6 to reflect the latest developments.

The platform bobs sluggishly in the sea, built of several steel pontoons anchored to the seabed to form a large pier, soon to dock ships bringing urgently needed aid to Gaza.

The photos published by the US Central Command on X earlier this week suggest that work on the US makeshift pier is almost complete. Floating several miles off the coast of Gaza, it will be guarded by around 1,000 armed US soldiers. They are just one component of a complex logistics chain that will cost at least $320 million (€297 million).

The pier will be just the first landing point for the aid freighters coming through this new sea route from Cyprus around 200 nautical miles away. The water is too shallow to directly reach the coast, which means that pallets of supplies must be unloaded here and transferred via forklifts to trucks, which will then be driven onto smaller army ships and transported several miles further.

The trucks will be unloaded on a two-lane pier built from more pontoons and secured by the Israeli military around 600 meters from shore. From there, the pallets will be then handed over to aid organizations for distribution.

The plan is for 90 trucks to bring relief supplies to Gaza daily via this route, increasing to 150 as soon as the pier is fully operational.

Critics dispute the project's utility

The project is controversial in the US. Not just expensive, critics say that an already functioning Israeli deep-sea port in Ashdod just 30 kilometers north of the Gaza Strip would be a far easier and cheaper choice for delivering aid via the recently opened Erez border crossing in northern Gaza.

Instead, US President "Biden is committing the United States military to conducting a highly complex, very expensive, low-production operation to bring food into the strip — when Biden could massively increase the amount of food into the strip with far less effort or expense," military expert Daniel Davis commented in an article by the Quincy Institute, a US foreign policy think tank.

 

He noted that the US had not exhausted its leverage with the Israeli government to open Ashdod and Erez for deliveries. Several tons of aid shipments were stuck in Ashdod for months because the Israeli government refused to cooperate with the United Nations Palestinian Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) on distribution, claiming that the organization had been infiltrated by Hamas and was involved in its massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7 that sparked the war. Israeli protesters have also repeatedly blocked aid shipments to Gaza.

Concerns about US military involvement

There are also concerns that US soldiers could become involved in the conflict. President Biden has categorically said "no US boots on the ground in Gaza." However, around 1,000 American troops have now been deployed to secure the aid delivery pier, which is within firing range from the coast of Gaza.

The Israeli army took fire while attempting to anchor their part of the pier on April 25. In a congressional inquiry, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said a similar attack on US soldiers was possible but did not specify how they might respond.

The US military presence is also causing some resentment on the Palestinian side. There are already speculations on social media that Washington could be aiming to build a kind of military bridgehead to Gaza to support Israel's fight against Hamas. Others have suggested that the US is actually using the floating platform to exploit a gas field off the Gaza coast under the cover of providing humanitarian aid. While there is no reliable evidence for such a claim, it indicates a deep distrust of the project.

The distribution quandary

President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk pointed out another problem with this aid plan back in March to The Guardian: "Who is going to distribute it?" The presence of aid organizations in the northern Gaza Strip is "close to zero," he said, adding that the sea corridor would only help to a limited extent while shifting the distribution problem from the borders to the interior.

Northern Gaza has been largely destroyed and public order has collapsed amid widespread famine. On Thursday, Washington accused the radical Islamist Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the EU, US and other states, of intercepting and diverting aid supplies on a large scale in northern Gaza for the first time. The goods have since been released and returned to the humanitarian organization they were taken from, but the incident highlights how unstable the situation on the ground remains. Amid ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas, international aid organizations continue to express serious concerns about the safety of their staff.

This article was originally published in German.

Social media has always been one of the only places where members of the LGBTQ+ community in Iraq could meet and be more open about their sexual identity.

"Before Instagram, members of the community created fake Facebook accounts and joined secret groups to get to know one another," Khalid, a 22-year-old student in the central Iraqi province of Babylon, told DW. He couldn't give his full name, because doing so would expose him to danger. "Then with Instagram's 'close friends' story feature [launched in 2018], it became even easier for people to connect, and even to find love."

The country's conservative culture means most queer locals have always hidden their sexuality. Surveys of attitudes toward homosexuality in Middle Eastern countries indicate that usually less than 10% of local populations "approve" of homosexuality.

"Social media has been the main platform of expression of any kind here, especially for those who do not have their own spaces," explained Ayaz Shalal Kado, executive director of the Iraqi human rights organization IraQueer. "That includes vulnerable groups, such as the LGBTQ+ community, disabled people and others. Social media was a way for these people to express themselves, connect and create communities."

While social media and digital platforms have offered an opportunity, they have also posed a danger, Human Rights Watch said earlier this year as it launched the campaign Secure Our Socials. Working with local rights groups, Human Rights Watch reported how digital activity was being used by authoritarian states against individuals suspected of being queer.

Dangers of digital life 

This danger is now likely to increase for the LGBTQ+ community in Iraq.

Despite generally negative attitudes toward same-sex relationships, Iraq — unlike most other countries in the Middle East — never had a law explicitly criminalizing them. Instead, Iraqi officials used more vague anti-obscenity laws to punish and harass members of the LGBTQ+ community.

But in late April, the Iraqi government amended a preexisting law on prostitution. The new amendments ban any sort of homosexuality or transsexuality, punishing these with up to 15 years in prison. Anybody seen to "promote" homosexuality could be fined up to 15 million Iraqi dinars ($11,220/€10,5050) or sentenced to jail for up to seven years.

This comes after the Iraqi Communications and Media Commission, which regulates local media, issued rules in August 2023 mandating that media in Iraq may no longer use the term "homosexuality" and should instead replace it with the phrase "sexual deviance." Media may also not talk about "gender."

According to the local media outlet Rudaw, Iraqi lawmakers insisted they needed the amendments "to preserve the entity of Iraqi society from moral degeneration," as the amendment text read.

"The truth is, this new law is not new at all," Babylon-based student Khalid complained. "We've always lived in fear and hiding." It's just that now there's even more thing to worry about, he said.

Iraq comes under international criticism

The amendments were widely criticized by international rights organizations and Iraq's foreign allies.

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq said the law contradicts a number of human rights treaties ratified by Iraq. The US State Department argued the new rules could be used to "further hamper free speech and personal expression and inhibit the operations of [non-governmental organizations] across Iraq."

Iraqi NGOs are still working out exactly how to respond. One Iraqi rights organization, Gala for LGBTQ, posted advice on its Instagram page that included telling users to make their accounts private, unfollowing openly queer accounts and deleting digital material that could be seen as LGBTQ+-friendly.

"If you are in Iraq, it is better not to talk or publish about the LGBTQ+ community and leave this to people who are outside Iraq," the organization suggested.

"There are many ways to fight back and that's what the community is working on currently," said Kado of IraQueer. "Safety and security are the highest priority. But we will not give up. That is not an option."

Kado does worry that the online presence of Iraq's LGBTQ+ community is about to be reduced or even disappear altogether, as locals realize the dangers of using social media. But, he added, there are even larger ramifications around freedom of expression in Iraq.

Wide-ranging impact on rights groups

"Banning words like 'homosexual' or 'gender' is a huge step backwards — and not just for queer people," he said. "It's intersectional. It doesn't just affect my organization, but also all feminist organizations, all those who work for women's rights, and those who focus on gender and bodily rights in general."

There have also been other cases of social media becoming dangerous in Iraq.

The same weekend Iraqi authorities passed the new LGBTQ+ rules, a popular Iraqi influencer, Ghufran Mahdi Sawadi, known online as Um Fahad, was murdered by an unknown assailant outside her home, most likely because of her online persona.

"Every young person has the right to entertainment and to share content on their Snapchat account," Sawadi's brother Amir, told DW. "This is their personal life."

Over the past year, two other Iraqis who were well known on social media — a transgender person known as Simsim and Noor Alsaffar, who posted videos of himself in women's clothing — were also murdered.

"History shows us that when one group is targeted, then another vulnerable group is bound to be next," said Kado. "Once you allow perpetrators [of human rights abuses] to take a step without accountability, they will take more steps. At some point it will be too late to stop them." 

Edited by: Cristina Burack

Israel's allies have ramped up the pressure in recent weeks to allow more aid into Gaza to avert a worsening humanitarian crisis. But few have so far imposed sanctions on the Middle Eastern country, or boycotted products from Israel.

DW looks at what measures a handful of countries and activist movements have taken.

Turkey raises the stakes

In its first significant measure against Israel since the war began, Turkey has announced it will not resume trade with Israel,worth $7 billion (€6.52 billion) a year, until a permanent cease-fire and humanitarian aid are secured in Gaza.

Israel's "uncompromising attitude" and the worsening situation in Gaza's southern Rafah region prompted Turkey to halt all exports and imports, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said Friday (May 3).

Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz criticised Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's move, saying it breaks international trade agreements and was "how a dictator behaves".

The militant group Hamas, which rules Gaza, praised the decision as brave and supportive of Palestinian rights.

Trade Minister Polat said Turkey decided to "stop exports and imports to and from Israel" and is negotiating with "our Palestinian brothers on alternative arrangements to ensure that they are not affected by this decision."

In April, Turkey already curbed exports of 54 product categories, including steel, fertilizer and jet fuel, over what it said was Israel's refusal to allow Ankara to take part in aid air-drop operations for Gaza.

All remaining trade, which amounted to $5.4 billion in Turkish exports and $1.6 billion in Israeli imports last year, is now halted. Top Turkish exports to Israel are steel, vehicles, plastics, electrical devices and machinery, while imports are dominated by
fuels at $634 million last year.

Turkish economist and former politician Oguz Oyan told DW that "Ankara was forced to make such a decision." He added that during the local election campaign last month, the Erdogan government "got in trouble owing to its good trade relations with Israel. This affected the behavior of conservative voters."

US, France and UK sanction Israeli settlers

Among major Western powers, only France has mooted the idea of sanctions to pressure Israel to pull back its troops from Gaza and allow more humanitarian aid to reach displaced Palestinians.

"We have multiple ways to utilize our influence; obviously, we can impose more sanctions," Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné told French broadcasters RFI and FRANCE 24 on Tuesday.

Séjourné was referring to very targeted sanctions imposed by the US, Canada, France and UK on settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

In February, the Biden administration named two Israeli outposts and several Israeli settlers it accused of undermining stability in the landlocked territory. The State Department said the outposts had been bases for violence against Palestinians.

The White House also imposed sanctions on multiple Israeli men it accused of being involved in settler violence in the West Bank.

The sanctions typically freeze any US assets of those targeted and generally bar Americans from dealing with them.

Canada, France and the UK imposed similar curbs on several Israeli settlers.

The Biden administration is also planning to require goods produced in West Bank settlements to be clearly marked, the Financial Times reported last week.

In 2019, the European Union's top court ruled that goods from West Bank settlements must be labeled as coming from occupied territory and not imply that they came from Israel.

Chile blocks Israel from aviation fair

The Chilean government informed Israel last month that its companies would be banned from taking part in the 2024 International Air and Space Fair, FIDAE.

Organized by the Chilean Air Force, the fair is regarded as the main aerospace and defense show in Latin America, bringing together exhibitors from more than 40 countries.

As well as the ban, Chile has canceled all cooperation or training activities with Israel on Chilean territory. The government said it would no longer purchase any weapons, defense or security systems from Israel.

In January, Chile asked the International Criminal Court in The Hague to investigate Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied territories.

Israel's tie normalization with Arab states hits the skids

The Israel-Hamas war has halted progress on what is known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which aims to foster integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.

The project will see new rail and shipping links built to counter China's massive Belt and Road (BRI) infrastructure initiative. But IMEC is understood to be on hold while the conflict plays out.

There was hope the IMEC could help speed up the long-awaited rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which the Biden administration hoped would help open the door for other Muslim countries to recognize Israel.

Arab nations have regularly condemned Israel's aggressive tactics against civilians as it seeks to root out the Hamas militant group in Gaza. Riyadh has warned that it would only normalize relations with Israel if there is a two-state solution between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel established ties with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan and Bahrain in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords.

BDS movement urges global sanctions against Israel

Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) is a nonviolent Palestinian-led movement promoting boycotts, divestments and economic sanctions against Israel.

Co-founder Omar Barghouti said BDS drew inspiration from South Africa's anti-apartheid movement.

BDS now has branches in 40 countries and has also advocated a boycott of Israeli sporting, cultural and academic events, calling for pressure on foreign companies that "collaborate" with Israel.

The movement is regularly accused of antisemitism by Israel and the US.

Meanwhile, several apps are helping consumers boycott businesses deemed to be supporting Israel and its war on Gaza.

The apps, including one called Boycat, allow users to scan the barcode of any product and see its links to the Middle Eastern country. The app also offers a choice of products consumers may buy instead.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

This article was updated on May 3, 2024, to include Turkey's announcement of a complete ban of Israeli imports and exports. 

A two-week lull in attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels have ended with the resumption of missile strikes targeting Red Sea ships linked to Israel, the United States or nations supporting the international anti-Houthi naval coalition in those waters.

The attacks, which the Houthis have been carrying out since November 2023, are a bid to show solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

However, while the Iran-backed group has not managed to influence the course of the war between Israel and Hamas, its ongoing attacks have increased the group's popularity to an unprecedented level.

And now, some five months into the attacks, the Houthis are starting to leverage this power boost across Yemen. 

Houthis are 'capitalizing on popularity'

Yemen is split into Houthi-controlled areas in the north and west, with its capital Sanaa, and areas under the control of Yemen's internationally recognized Presidential Council, which has its capital in Aden.

The two de facto governments are the result of a civil war that began in 2014 when the Houthis overthrew the Yemeni government.

A year later, the conflict escalated further when a Saudi Arabia-led international coalition came to the aid of the internationally recognized government.

Years of war have killed hundreds of thousands of people and have led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, according to the United Nations.

Following a United Nations-brokered peace deal between the two rival governments in April 2022, the Houthis became increasingly unpopular "because of their mismanagement, corruption, repression and the fact that the economy was in tatters," Hisham al-Omeisy, conflict analyst and former Information Resources Center director for Yemen at the US State Department, told DW. 

But now, after five months of attacking cargo ships on the Red Sea in support of the Palestinians, "the Houthis are basically riding high on the popularity that they've gotten locally and regionally, pitching themselves as the vanguard of Muslim and Arab nations," al-Omeisy added. "And they're capitalizing on that popularity to expand their control, but also to solidify their rule inside the Yemeni territories where they've launched a massive recruitment drive under the guise of supporting Gaza." 

No good governance for Yemenis

The increased Houthi popularity has not translated into good governance across the war-torn country.

"The way they are treating Yemenis under their governance is in contradiction with that apparently humanitarian or moral stance that they claim to be taking on the Palestinian issue," Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst and professor at Canada's University of Ottawa, told DW.

This is particularly true for Taiz, Yemen's third largest city, and its around 940,600 residents.

Taiz has been under siege for some eight years, and the Houthis continue to block main roads leading into the Aden-government-controlled city.

Water and staple goods also remain scarce.

"We have not had any concessions or seen any initiatives to alleviate the suffering of people in Taiz since the Houthis launched their support of the Palestinians," said Fatima, a 20-year-old mother of three children who lives in Taiz and asked that her last name not be published for fear of retribution.

New Yemeni coinage

In the near future, the economic divide and, in turn, the humanitarian situation will likely deteriorate further, not only in Taiz but across all government-held areas.

In April, the Houthi-run Central Bank in Sanaa issued a new denomination of the local currency, a 100 Yemeni riyal coin.

The Houthi-run Central Bank said in a statement that the new coins would replace damaged paper banknotes of the same denomination.

However, the government-affiliated Central Bank in Aden immediately decried the new coins as "fake." 

Economic volatility is already on the rise. 

According to Yemen's Press Agency, in Aden this week, $1 cost 1,683 Yemeni riyals, while the exchange rate for $1 remained fixed at 530 Yemeni riyals in the Houthi-held capital Sanaa.

"Knowing that the majority of Yemenis live in areas under their control and the fact they have a stronger hold than the opposing camp, the Houthis are flexing their muscles and are telling the Yemeni government that they are basically handling fiscal and monetary policies from here on," analyst al-Omeisy said. 

Houthi goals remain unchanged

Thomas Juneau agrees. "The Houthis' main domestic goal is to emerge as the governing and legitimate authority in Yemen," he said, adding that "due to what they are doing in the Red Sea, they feel that they are in the position to extract more concessions from their domestic rivals, especially the internationally recognized government, but also from their regional rivals, especially Saudi Arabia."

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been open about his wish to exit the costly war in Yemen, but talks have stalled in light of the war in Gaza.

However, experts believe that sooner or later, exiting the war in Yemen will come at the price of accepting the Houthis as Yemen's main authority, despite years of backing the internationally recognized government.

Hisham al-Omeisy is skeptical that the Yemeni government can curb the Houthis' ascendancy. 

"Unfortunately, the Yemeni government and anti-Houthi movement haven't really properly coalesced around a unified national message or plan of action beyond simply opposing the Houthis," he said. "If we are honest, it is a house of cards, and they would need to get their act together to have a solid front that can actually curb Houthi enthusiasm and ambitions of expansion."

Edited by: Jon Shelton

According to Israeli media outlets, the government in Tel Aviv has cast a cautious eye toward The Hague, Netherlands — home of the International Criminal Court (ICC). The government's unease comes after recent reports that the court may issue warrants for the arrests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Herzi Halevi, chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), before the end of the week. 

Netanyahu commented on a possible arrest warrant on Friday, April 26, on the social media platform X, writing, "Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defense."

What type of criminal case could the ICC bring against Netanyahu?

The International Criminal Court only investigates individuals and only becomes active when a person is suspected of being responsible for one of four core crimes: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, or starting a war of aggression.

The ICC has in fact been looking into possible war crimes committed by Israel since 2021. At the same time, the court has also been investigating similar accusations leveled against Hamas fighters. Moreover, investigations are currently ongoing in regard to acts of violence committed by Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Recent developments in the war between Israel and Hamas are all being considered in that context. This most recent conflict began when militant Islamist Hamas fighters attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting more than 240 back to Gaza. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by numerous Western nations, including many EU member states as well as the US.

According to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, Israel's military response to the attack has killed more than 34,000 people, though these numbers cannot be independently verified.

When does the ICC have jurisdiction over Israeli citizens?

As a rule, the ICC may only take action when states cannot or will not pursue charges for the above-mentioned crimes at the national level. The current war makes it even more unlikely than usual that Israeli courts would initiate criminal proceedings against the head of its government, its ministers or army leadership. 

Furthermore, either a perpetrator's home country must also acknowledge the court — Israel does not — or the country in which a crime is alleged to have taken place must. That could well be the case here, as the Palestinian territories are signatories to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Joining Israel in their rejection of the ICC are the US, China, Russia, India, almost all Arab states, and Iran.

When none of the nations tied to the crimes are ICC Treaty signatories, then the task of contracting the ICC to investigate falls to the United Nations Security Council — as was the case, for instance, with Libya and Sudan.

What consequences could the ICC warrant have for Netanyahu?

An arrest warrant is not a conviction. In the first instance it is a sign that the ICC takes accusations leveled against an individual seriously enough to investigate them.

According to the ICC website, "judges will issue a warrant of arrest if it appears necessary to ensure that the person will actually appear at trial, that he or she will not obstruct or endanger the investigation or the court's proceedings, or to prevent the person from continuing to commit crimes."

However, as the ICC has no police force to arrest individuals against whom it has issued warrants, it is highly unlikely that members of the Israeli government will ever appear before judges in The Hague.  

Still, an arrest warrant would greatly limit the freedom of movement that Netanyahu and his associates enjoy, for each of the ICC treaty's 124 signatories are obliged to arrest individuals with outstanding warrants and to hand them over to the court.

That is why Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to avoid traveling to most international meetings since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest over accusations that he is involved in the systematic abduction of Ukrainian children. Putin only travels directly to and from nations that do not recognize the legitimacy of the ICC.

How would such an arrest warrant be tied to accusations of genocide leveled at Israel?

The ICC's investigation should not be confused with another similar case pending against the state of Israel, namely the charge of genocide leveled against it by several nations. Among others, South Africa has spearheaded a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) based on the high number of casualties in Gaza. The ICJ is also based in The Hague, but does not investigate individuals nor does it issue arrest warrants, instead dealing exclusively with legal disputes between states.

In late January, the ICJ said it recognized the "risk of genocide in the Gaza Strip." Still, the ICJ refused to back an emergency motion filed by South Africa demanding Israel immediately cease all military operations in the enclave. As a result of that stance, the genocide case against Israel could potentially drag on for months or even years.

This article was translated from German by Jon Shelton.

Iranian authorities are stepping up street patrols in a renewed push towards suppressing women who refuse to follow strict Islamic dress codes.

Under a new campaign called "nour" or "light," endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian "morality police" are out in force on so-called guidance patrols looking for women who refuse to wear the hijab, or headscarf.

One 25-year-old woman, who spoke to DW anonymously, said she was accosted on the streets of Tehran while on her way to university on April 20.

She said she was surrounded by dozens of police officers who demanded that she cover her hair, and when she resisted, they quickly resorted to violence, pulling out some of her hair and verbally harassing her as they dragged her into the van.

"At that moment, I didn't fully understand what was happening; I just knew they were beating me. Later, I saw that several parts of my body were bruised," she said.

As she was being beaten and harassed by police, the woman said she thought of the "Women, Life Freedom" movement, which started in September 2022 when 22-year-old Jina Mahsa Amini died after being taken into custody by the morality police in Tehran for allegedly improperly wearing a hijab.

Amini's death was followed by the highest level of public unrest Iran had seen in decades, with thousands of people taking to the streets of Iranian cities in support of women's rights. Authorities used force to suppress the protests. A UN fact-finding mission estimates that 551 protesters were killed.

"I remembered Jina Mahsa Amini and other women who sacrificed their lives during the women's uprising for life and freedom, and I told myself I had to be strong," the woman said.

"I shouted loudly that my dress code is my own business. As soon as I said this, their insults and violence began," she said. The female officers called her a prostitute and told her that as long as she lived in Iran, she "must respect the laws of the country derived from Islamic commands."

The woman said she was taken into police custody, where at least five other women were also detained for not wearing a headscarf. She was released after several hours but was forced to sign a letter committing to following Islamic dress codes, and may also face further legal action.

A renewed crackdown on women in Iran

In recent weeks, there have been many similar reports on excessive violence against women circulating on Iranian social media. Many women have shared their experiences of police violence, arrest and fines.

Iran's legislative bodies, the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Guardian Council, which sign off on laws, have recently been negotiating bills aimed at legalizing a crackdown on women who oppose the "compulsory hijab."

The resurgence of violence against women began after Khamenei's speech on Eid al-Fitr, April 10, the holiday that ends the month of Ramadan.

Emphasizing the necessity of compulsory hijab, he ordered actions against "religious norm-breakers."

Following this speech, the morality police increased street patrols. The calls for a crackdown also coincided with the large-scale Iranian missile and drone strike on Israel, and a surge of international concern over a widening of the conflict in the Middle East.

Mahtab Mahboub, an Iranian women's rights activist residing in Germany, told DW that the timing of the increased crackdown on women's rights, along with the heightened tensions with Israel, is not a coincidence.

"The issue of security lies at the core of the Islamic Republic's policies — external security through attacking the 'enemy,' and internal security through controlling the bodies of women and all sexual and gender minorities," she said.

She added that women and protesters "are seen as potential agents of rebellion who can challenge the compulsory value system" of the Islamic Republic.

Osman Mozayan, a lawyer in Tehran, told DW that in recent days, many unlawful detentions have taken place.

"In some cases, women's bank accounts have been blocked, or their cars have been confiscated. Some students have been prevented from entering universities. Even some have been deprived of work. Their civil and civic lives are disrupted," he said.

"These individuals are mostly referred to the courts, and regardless of the verdict — conviction or acquittal — these punishments and restrictions imposed are irreparable," he added.

Iranians demand change

Many believe that the nationwide Women, Life, Freedom protests represent the most severe internal challenge since the Islamic Republic was formed in 1979.

However, the regime has never been willing to concede to the demands of the protesters, especially the removal of mandatory hijab obligations.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, who is currently in Tehran's Evin Prison, described the recent surge in violence against women and youth as a sign of "desperation" from the Islamic Republic.

Mohammadi said the new policy stems from the regime's "untreatable pain of illegitimacy."

A group of mothers who lost their children during the Women, Life, Freedom protests issued a statement recently condemning the "brutal and continuous repression by this misogynist regime."

"Women have no intention of returning to the past and do not allow themselves to be considered second-class citizens, letting the patriarchal government and society decide for them," the statement said.

Rojina, a journalist in Tehran who spoke to DW using a pseudonym, said despite the recent uptick in violence, she has not seen any change on the streets.

"Every day, many women can be seen in public with optional clothing. They have accepted that freedom requires a cost, and they are determined not to revert to life before the Women, Life, Freedom movement."

Feminist activist Mahboub is in contact with many women in Iran. She said the Women, Life, Freedom movement has "restored the lost self-confidence to women and reminded the entire society that the freedom of women and the most marginalized groups is the measure of society's freedom."

"Some women who still leave home without a hijab are courageously reclaiming their lost dignity. They insist that no one has the right to decide for our bodies," she said.

Before you leave: Every Friday, the DW Asia newsletter delivers compelling articles and videos from around the continent right to your inbox. Subscribe below.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Iran knows it, China knows it and apparently, so does the US government: despite existing sanctions against the oil industry of the Islamic Republic, oil from Iran is being shipped to China in record volumes.

Javier Blas, an opinion columnist who covers energy and commodities for Bloomberg, recently described how Iranian oil ends up in China.

"If you believe the Chinese government, the country doesn't import any oil from Iran. Zero. Not a barrel. Instead, it imports lots of Malaysian crude. So much that, according to official Chinese customs data, it somehow buys more than twice as much Malaysian oil as Malaysia actually produces."

By rebranding Iranian oil, Malaysia became China's fourth-largest foreign oil supplier last year, behind Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq.

For many years, Iran has used the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a hub for circumventing sanctions. Dubai, one of the seven emirates of the UAE, is the gateway of banned goods other than oil that enter Iran. Tehran has long modified its supply chains so that virtually everything embargoed by the United States or the European Union can be obtained through trading and financial hubs like Dubai.

Central Asia: Russia's new trading hub

Following Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine, Russia has had to establish similar trade routes to ensure a steady supply of vital goods for its economy.

The former Soviet republics in Central Asia have been proving ideal for circumventing the embargoes, because countries like Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan are part of a customs union with Moscow. Moreover, the vast distances — Kazakhstan alone shares a border with Russia of more than 7,500 kilometers (4,660 miles) — make sanctions control virtually impossible.

Due to Russia's sanctions-busting strategy, Armenia, for example, saw imports of German cars and components rise by almost 1000% last year.

Russia is the most embargoed country globally, according to the latest data provided by Castellum.AI, a global sanctions-tracking database.

However, the Russian economy is far from collapsing. It posted strong growth of 3.6% last year, and the Kremlin is expecting the 2024 growth rate to be "at the same level," according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

The International Monetary Fund shares the Russians' growth expectations, setting the rate of GDP expansion at 3.2%, and noting that high state spending and investments related to the war against Ukraine would be driving growth. Strong revenue from oil exports would continue to support Moscow's finances, it said.

Sanctions galore, to little effect

Russia is subject to more than 5,000 different targeted sanctions — more than have been imposed on Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar and Cuba combined. They are targeted at politicians and officials in Putin's government, as well as at Russian oligarchs, large companies, financial institutions and the military-industrial complex.

Financial sanctions have restricted Russian banks' access to international financial markets, excluding them from the crucially important SWIFT banking system, which powers most international money and security transfers.

Additionally, the Russian central bank is denied access to its vast reserves located in G7 countries.

The catch is that only sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council are legally binding for all countries of the world. And there are indeed several countries like India, Brazil and China that have not adhered to these sanctions.

What's the alternative?

So, why are Western nations still imposing sanctions they cannot enforce?

"If no sanctions were imposed, it would almost be like tacit support. Or as if one were not responding to this [Russia's] illegal attack," said Christian von Soest, sanctions expert at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies.

Author of the 2023 book titled "Sanctions: Powerful Weapon or Helpless Maneuver?", von Soest told DW that the US and Europe needed to "sharpen their measures to force Russia and Iran to change their behavior."

According to a report by US business daily The Wall Street Journal, Washington is planning to target several Chinese banks to ensure Western sanctions bite. US President Joe Biden's administration wants to exclude Beijing from the global financial system in order to stop the flow of finance funding the Russian war machinery, the newspaper reported, citing anonymous sources.

In the EU, a so-called sanctions envoy — David O'Sullivan from Ireland — was named in January last year to engage in diplomatic efforts to enforce the bloc's sanctions regime. 

"His task is also to travel to the post-Soviet states neighboring Russia, for example, and persuade governments there to enforce the sanctions more rigorously," von Soest told DW.

"The general problem has been recognized that there are ways for both Russia and Iran to circumvent the sanctions," he said, adding that now one has to see what the various measures bring.

Some impact is already being felt: in Turkey, for example, where a US threat to impose sanctions on financial firms doing business with Russia has led to a steep decline in Turkey's exports to Russia, which had boomed last year.

This article was originally written in German.

Turkey's leader was clear about what he thought closer cooperation with Iraq would require. Iraq must act against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which is designated as a terror organization in Turkey and also by the EU, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

On his first visit to Iraq in over a decade, Erdogan told Iraqi President Abdel Latif Rashid this week "that Iraq must be rid of all forms of terrorism."

Erdogan also met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and the two men decided upon a "strategic framework agreement" focused on security, energy, water and trade. This included a €16 billion ($17 billion) rail and road project. The two men also agreed that Turkey would buy Iraqi oil again. In total, around 24 different agreements were signed this week.

Thanks to shared projects like this, Iraq and Turkey will "build lasting cooperation in all fields," al-Sudani boasted.

Given that the two countries have had tense relations for a while this visit denotes significant progress, said Lucas Lamberty, country director for the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Iraq.

Progress in Turkey-Iraq relations?

Erdogan's meetings followed on from earlier visits by other senior Turkish politicians to Iraq, he noted. "Even just the fact that Erdogan visited at all can already be seen as a success," Lamberty told DW. "It shows that there's good will."

In the past, relations between Iraq and Turkey haven't been great. During the war in neighboring Syria, Turkey supported the rebels fighting that country's dictator Bashar Assad. Meanwhile, Iraq tended to side with the Assad regime, not least because both countries have strong alliances with Iran.

In Iraq, there are a number of Iranian-backed militias, mostly made up of local Shiite Muslims, who currently have a large impact on Iraqi politics.

One of the biggest sticking points to a more friendly relationship between Turkey and Iraq has been the presence of the PKK group in northern Iraq. The group has Kurdish roots and has sought shelter in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, on the borders of Syria, Iran and Turkey. 

The Turkish have regularly bombed what they see as PKK targets in northern Iraq without asking permission from Iraqi authorities. This has angered Iraqi and Kurdish politicians and has also resulted in civilian casualties.

Turkey always argues that if it didn't do this, then the PKK, whose militant wing has been behind extremist acts in Turkey itself, would cross the border in Turkey and cause them problems. Iraq, however, sees this as an infringement of its own territorial sovereignty.

That's why some observers were surprised when in March this year the Iraqi government conceded to long-standing Turkish demands that it ban the PKK, althouhg Iraq stopped short of designating the PKK a terror organization.

Only a few days earlier, the Turkish defense ministry had declared that it wanted to broaden operations against the PKK in northern Iraq.

"Because the majority of the PKK bases are actually in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, this also has an internal political dimension for Iraq," Lamberty explained. Iraq's Kurds have their own parliament, laws and military but are also split on how welcome they should make the PKK feel. "The government in Baghdad has taken some steps [towards Turkey], such as banning the PKK. But it remains to be seen how much further it can accommodate Turkey."

The Turkish perspective is that the Erdogan visit to Iraq is an important step in combatting the PKK, says Bilgay Duman, a researcher focused on Iraq at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Turkey. "This step is one of the [strategic framework] agreement's greatest achievements," he told DW. 

Iraq and Turkey's vital progress in water distribution

There has also been some rapprochement on another of the biggest points of contention between the two countries: water resources.

Iraq has suffered from water shortages over the past few years. Partially this is due to climate change but it also has to do with how surrounding countries dam or block water.

At the beginning of the 20th century, there was an estimated 1,350 cubic meters per second flowing through the country's rivers on average, the German magazine International Politics and Society reported in late 2023. That amount has since reduced to just 149 cubic meters per second. Tributaries of the country's largest rivers, the Euphrates, Tigris and Diyala, are particularly impacted. And Turkey has built dams on both the Tigris and Euphrates.

"We signed a framework agreement to cooperate on the issue of water, the cooperation involves common projects that will help in the improvement of water management in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers," al-Sudani said during a press conference. The agreement would be valid for 10 years, he added.

"Basically, these agreements are welcome," the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Lamberty told DW. "The talks didn't really bring any complete solutions. However, the agreements are going to spark a process, and that process will tackle remaining challenges."

Given the complicated relationship that was there before this meeting took place, both sides can claim this week's events as a win, Turkish analyst Duman said.

"Turkeys priority is the fight against the PKK. Iraq's priority is water," he explained. " Now that both sides agree on these two points, we can view these agreements as having a mutual benefit."

Still, from the perspective of the Iraqi government, a solution to the country's chronic water shortage has yet to be found. Iraq's government is simply too weak to assert its own interests against Turkey, concludes Baghdad-based political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari.

Elmas Topcu and Alla Ahmed contributed to this article. It was originally published in German. 

The Israeli economy is showing signs of a return to normality despite the strain the war against Hamas has put on it.

Although official economic data for the first three months of 2024 has yet to be released by the government, recent labor market data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and credit card transaction data from the Bank of Israel suggest the country's economy is rebounding from the shock of the October 7 terror attacks and the war that has followed.

Israel's economy suffered a major contraction in the final quarter of 2023, following the terrorist attacks. Its economy shrank by 5.2% compared with the previous quarter. Much was related to the labor force disruption which resulted when around 300,000 reservists were called up to the country's armed forces.

However, Benjamin Bental, professor of economics at the University of Haifa, says the labor market is finally recovering from the sudden departure of so many workers and small business owners from the economy.

"The labor market is really stabilizing quite rapidly," he told DW. "It's not yet at its pre-war level but formal unemployment is actually 1% lower than it was in September 2023."

The ongoing return of some reservists has improved the labor situation while the strong credit card data suggests returning consumer optimism after a big slump in late 2023.

However, Bental said certain sectors remain severely affected by labor shortages, particularly construction. That is largely because the industry was heavily dependent on Palestinian workers coming from the Israeli-occupied West Bank who are now unable to travel to their jobs in Israel due to the security situation.

Around 75,000 Palestinians used to commute daily to Israel for construction work from the West Bank. Their absence brought building work to an almost complete halt, as residential construction fell by 95% in late 2023.

The sector has recovered somewhat since Israel brought in thousands of workers from India, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan to resume construction work, but the full picture won't be clear until first-quarter data is released.

Israel's budget deficit

The war forced the Israeli government to dramatically ramp up spending, with a surge in defense expenditure as well as reconstruction costs associated with the Hamas attacks and the cost of re-housing tens of thousands of Israelis displaced in the north and south of the country.

Israel announced an amended state budget for 2024 last month of 584 billion shekels ($160 billion, €144 billion). The budget was initially reported as setting a deficit of 6.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, up from a pre-war level of 2.25%. However, Benjamin Bental says it's already clear that this is a significant underestimate and that a deficit of 8% looks more realistic.

"This is what looks more or less reasonable, assuming that there is no further deterioration of the security situation," he said, referring to current tensions with Iran.

There is obvious pressure on government finances. It plans to raise about $60 billion (€56 billion) in debt this year, as well as increasing taxes, but it insists it has the capacity.

"The economic fundamentals are there," Yali Rothenberg, the finance ministry's accountant general, told the Financial Times ahead of the amended budget announcement. "If you look at the high-tech sector, it's there. If you look at the infrastructure investment, it's there. If you look at the private consumption, it's there."

Learning from past conflicts

Before the attacks on October 7 by the militant Islamist Hamas group, Israel's economy was in good shape. "The economy was performing remarkably well," said Bental. "Inflation was coming down and the entire monetary situation was under very good control."

He pointed out that Israel was headed for growth of 3.5% before the attacks in 2023, and that it still managed growth of 2% for the year despite the final quarter shock.

He stressed that on the streets of cities such as Tel Aviv or Haifa, there is little evidence of a war economy or any sense of shortage or deprivation. However, he cautioned that Israel's experience of how previous wars and security crises impacted the economy should guide the current leadership.

Bental is worried about excessive spending on defense, for example. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel had dramatically ramped up defense expenditure to the point where it reached a "totally unsustainable" 30% of GDP. Combined with the oil crisis and wider global economic crisis of the time, the conflict "led to a real disaster economically" for Israel, where "you have very high inflation and basically no growth for almost 10 years."

According to Bental, the Second Intifada of the Palestinians, which took place between 2000 and 2005, had more similarities to the present conflict in that it involved civilians.

"You can learn a little bit about the damage that is caused by the loss of confidence of the civilian population and the loss of the sense of security during that particular episode," he said. "And there are estimates that over these years, let's say three, four years, the Israeli GDP lost about 10% just because of that"

Another example he gave is the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah and Lebanon — a conflict that showed how quickly the economy can recover once the fighting stops.

"We're talking about a situation where for basically a month, the northern region of Israel was not functioning," he noted. "But when you look at the data and you look for any traces of this, you won't find it. This is really amazing. The economy, once this was over, recuperated in no time."

Bental hopes that this will be the case when the current conflict ends and suggests the recent signs of recovery point toward that very situation.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Only a week after a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, it was business as usual for Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Accompanied by his wife and family, he appeared in public at the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, taking part in prayers and walking the city streets.

If he seemed unperturbed by the fact that a foreign power had apparently killed several high ranking generals in his capital just a few days earlier, that was on purpose, says Haid Haid, a consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House.

"The [Assad] photo op was not accidental. It's part of a wider campaign to show that business is proceeding as usual," Haid said during a Chatham House panel on the topic this week. "I think the message was that Syria will not be part of any retaliation for the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate and Syria will not be the main theater for that response."

That's not surprising, Haid said. "Because from the beginning of the war in Gaza, Assad has been distancing himself from regional escalation and portraying himself as neutral."

There are a number of reasons for this. Due to the long-running Syrian civil war, local military would not be equipped to respond anyway, the Syrian economy is in tatters, and political neutrality on Gaza could serve the Assad regime well in foreign policy terms.

Syrian transit route for Iran

The Syrian regime's attitude comes despite the fact that Israel has actually been attacking sites in Syria for over a decade. In 2012, the Iranian government became involved in the Syrian civil war, helping to defeat opposition forces. In return, Syria has been useful to Iran, offering a land corridor to transport equipment and fighters towards Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the most powerful of the various military proxies that Iran supports around the region, is based in Lebanon and is also present in Syria. Both Iran and Hezbollah consider Israel and the US enemies.

Iran's growing presence in Syria has concerned the Israeli military. They're worried about the build-up of Iranian troops and infrastructure nearer their own borders. This is why Israel has regularly targeted Syrian infrastructure.

"Israel's primary interest in Syria is to prevent a strategic Iranian military presence across Syria, including Iranian construction of military infrastructure and cultivation of local partner forces," think tank International Crisis Group explains in its online monitoring of the conflict. "Israel has carried out more than 100 strikes on convoys and warehouses serving Hezbollah's Syrian supply lines."

After late 2017, the pace of Israeli attacks picked up, Crisis Group noted. Observers say Israeli attacks were happening on an almost weekly basis.

Why doesn't Syria retaliate?

Given that it's still dealing with an ongoing hangover from its long running civil war and more concerned about its own survival, the Syrian government has not been in any real position to respond to Israel. If it did, it was usually with rockets that landed on empty ground, analysts have noted. And Israel didn't often target Syrian assets anyway; it was more likely to shoot at Iranian objects.

However since the October 7 attack on Israel by the Gaza-based militant Hamas group, designated as a terrorist group by the US, EU and others, Israeli strikes on Syria have become even more frequent. And whereas in the past, Israel mostly avoided killing Iranian or Hezbollah operatives, this has now changed, Chatham House expert Haid wrote in a commentary earlier in April.

"The change in Israel's transnational strategy — from merely targeting Iran's affiliates to directly eliminating Iranian leadership in Syria — was prompted by the October 7 attacks and Israel's apparent dissatisfaction with the limitations and failures of its containment strategy," he explained.

Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, has spoken about plans to expand a campaign against the Lebanon-based military arm of Hezbollah. "We will reach wherever the organization operates, in Beirut, Damascus and in more distant places," Gallant told Israeli media in late March.

That peaked with the alleged Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven people, including senior Iranian military officers and Hezbollah members. This led to Iranian retaliation on April 13, the first direct rocket and missile attack on Israel.

The fear of more direct attacks by Israel and Iran on one another seems to have been quelled for now. However, experts all agree that indirect attacks are likely to continue.

"The conventional wisdom in policy circles is that attacks in Syria are low cost," says Dareen Khalifa, a senior advisor at International Crisis Group, referring to the fact that Syria tends not to react to such attacks.

"So in that sense, I think we are going to continue to see Syria being a launchpad for attacks from Iranian-backed proxies in the country; it's also going to continue to be a rear base for them. And as such Israel is going to continue its attacks on Iranian assets in Syria," she concludes.

However just because it's happening in Syria doesn't mean it can't lead to further regional escalation, Khalifa warns.

"What we've been seeing is an incremental escalation regionally. Every actor has quantitatively and qualitatively escalated their tit-for-tat attacks. But thinking these [attacks] are low cost, doesn't mean other parties are going to see it the same way," she explains.

"There's very little margin for error or miscalculation." That's something the Iranian embassy attack in Damascus has already shown, she noted.

Edited by: Andreas Illmer

Numerous media outlets are reporting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to announce sanctions against a battalion of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The unit, known as Netzah Yehuda (Judea Forever), has been accused of human rights violations against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

According to the Associated Press news agency, the US has been investigating five army units for serious human rights violations. These sanctions, however, would only apply to this unit, imposing two restrictions: Firstly, no US military aid would go to Netzah Yehuda; secondly, its participation in training programs financed by the US would be limited. The Israeli government has already declared that it will oppose the sanctions.

What is Netzah Yehuda?

The Netzah Yehuda battalion was established in the late 1990s as a special religious unit, with specific conditions to facilitate military service for ultra-orthodox Jews (Haredim). The men are given time for prayer and religious studies, their food is kosher, and contact with female soldiers is very limited. The battalion is part of the Kfir Infantry Brigade, which says it numbers around 1,000 soldiers in total. The majority of the ultra-orthodox community opposes compulsory military service, making this a contentious issue.

Many of the soldiers in the battalion joined voluntarily because Haredim have always been exempt from military service in Israel. Those who attended a yeshiva (a religious school) up to a certain age, for instance, cannot be called up into the IDF.

However, more and more politicians are calling for the rule to be changed. Israel's Supreme Court ruled back in 1998 that it was discriminatory. And since October 2023, with the start of the war in Gaza against the militant group Hamas — which the US, EU, and others designate a terrorist group — thousands of Haredim have volunteered for military service.

Rallying point for radical settlers?

The unit is made up of both ultra-orthodox and religious-nationalist Israelis. These include radical settlers from the occupied West Bank who have close ties to the parties of right-wing extremist government ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. According to the US news website Axios, more and more of the so-called "Hilltop Youth" have joined the battalion over the years. This group consists of young, radical, sometimes violent settlers. Just last week, the EU sanctioned the Hilltop Youth for their attacks on Palestinians.

Netzah Yehuda was originally stationed in the occupied West Bank, but it was relocated to northern Israel at the end of 2022. The battalion has now also been deployed in the war in the Gaza Strip.

What exactly is the battalion accused of?

The Times of Israel reports that Netzah Yehuda has been linked to right-wing extremism and violence against Palestinians. According to the Axios website, the battalion first came to the attention of the US government in 2022, with incidents of violence against Palestinian civilians.

Members of the battalion are said to have detained an almost 80-year-old man, Omar Assad, and kept him bound and gagged for hours. Assad, a Palestinian-American, died a few hours later of a stress-induced heart attack. As reported by the Washington Post and other outlets, an autopsy found that this was likely brought on by his being manhandled.

The IDF condemned the incident at the time, describing it as a "moral failure," and a poor decision on the part of those responsible. Two officers were dismissed and a third was reprimanded, but no criminal charges were brought.

The incident attracted attention because of the man's dual nationality, his advanced age, and because the US called for an investigation. However, human rights activists can cite numerous other cases of alleged mistreatment and torture of Palestinians.

How has Israel reacted?

The Israeli government has expressed outrage at reports of impending sanctions. On Saturday evening, President Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X (formerly Twitter): "Sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defense Forces!" and declaring that his government was working to prevent any such measures. His post continued: "At a time when our soldiers are fighting the monsters of terror, the intention to impose sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low."

The Israeli military has stated that it is not aware of any sanctions against any of its units, and said: "If a decision is made on the matter, it will be reviewed."

Is the US considering further sanctions?

Sanctions against the Israeli army are a new development, but the US has previously imposed sanctions against Israel, such as recently against extremist settlers, and against the right-wing extremist Bentzi Gopstein, an ally of Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right minister for national security.

The US also put on its sanctions list two organizations that provide financial support for sanctioned extremist settlers. Their assets in the US have been blocked. US citizens and others in the US are also forbidden from engaging in any transactions with sanctioned organizations and individuals.

This article has been translated from German.

Iran is "weeks rather than months" away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told DW.

"But that does not mean that Iran has or would have a nuclear weapon in that space of time," he added.

He said that although uranium enrichment at near weapons-grade levels is a cause for alarm, one cannot draw the direct conclusion that Iran now has a nuclear weapon. 

"A functional nuclear warhead requires many other things independently from the production of the fissile material," Grossi said.

He also said Iran's objectives are "a matter of speculation." 

The Iranian public line is that this fissile material is needed for medical or civilian purposes.

IAEA still seeking more access in Iran

Grossi said the IAEA is not getting the level of access he believes it needs in Iran, which he said added more to the speculation around Tehran's nuclear program. 

"I have been telling my Iranian counterparts time and again [...] this activity raises eyebrows and compounded with the fact that we are not getting the necessary degree of access and visibility that I believe should be necessary," he said. 

"When you put all of that together, then, of course, you end up with lots of question marks."

Grossi highlighted unresolved IAEA findings, including traces of enriched uranium in unexpected locations, exacerbating doubts about Iran's transparency.

"This has been at the center of this dialogue that I have been and I am still trying to conduct with Iran." 

Nuclear threats 'absolutely deplorable'

Turning to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Grossi condemned any notion of attacking nuclear facilities.

"Attacking nuclear facilities is an absolute no-go," he said.

Grossi noted a worrying trend of the threat of nuclear attack or nuclear weapons being dropped.

"So I believe that this normalization of talk about nuclear weapons, dropping nuclear weapons, getting nuclear weapons is absolutely deplorable," he added.

Reacting to reports of talks between the United States and Iran, the IAEA chief said his agency always tries to promote dialogue. 

"And what I am interested in is the dialogue between us, the IAEA and Iran, because there are many things that need to be clarified, and it is for this that we are going to be traveling to Tehran soon," he said.

Grossi said his message to the Iranians would be that Iran should cooperate more. 

"I will be there to try to put these things back on track if they want to be believed," he added.

This text was based on a DW News interview conducted by Biresh Banerjee.

Edited by: Farah Bahgat