Israel has vowed a response to Iran's massive missile and drone attack over the weekend, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a meeting of Israel's war cabinet on Wednesday that the country will do "everything necessary to defend itself."

In the early hours of Sunday morning, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in an unprecedented strike launched directly from Iranian territory. Almost all of the drones, rockets and cruise missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israeli air defenses with the help of the US, UK, and several Arab countries.

Iran has said the attack was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria that killed several high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards.

As Israel considers its options, Iran is warning that "the slightest action" by Israel against "Iran's interests" will result in a "harsh, comprehensive and painful response."

Both German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron were in Israel on Wednesday and urged Netanyahu to show restraint and keep the situation from escalating out of control.

The US has urged Israel against a military response that would lead to further escalation and, instead, has announced plans to tighten sanctions on Iran. The EU has also announced similar sanction plans.

Western countries are not alone in seeking de-escalation. Several countries have Iran's ear and could play a role in moderating how Tehran responds to any retaliatory action by Israel.

Qatar

According to the Iranian presidential office, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi spoke to Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Tuesday.

During the call, Iranian media reported that Raisi said, "The slightest action against Iran's interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response."

Iran and Qatar maintain close diplomatic relations, and both provide support for the Islamist militant group Hamas that is based in Gaza, which is designated as a terror organization by Israel, the US, Germany, and several other countries.

Working with the approval of the Israeli government, Qatar is one of the most important donors of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and is considered an important mediator between Israel and Hamas. Under Qatari mediation, Israel and Hamas agreed on a brief ceasefire and prisoner exchange in November 2023.

Oman

The Sultanate operates below the public radar and has long played a crucial role as a mediator between Iran and the US.

Without Oman, the agreements reached in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program over the last two decades would have been inconceivable. The country is also campaigning on the Arabian Peninsula for the release of American and European prisoners in Iran.

The New York Times reports that the US government has been seeking talks with the Iranian authorities via the Sultanate of Oman and Switzerland since last weekend. The US and Iran have no diplomatic relations so contact must be established via third countries.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, historically Iran's regional adversary and a close ally of the US, is also keen to prevent the situation from escalating further, as the country relies on oil exports, which would be jeopardized by a full-scale war.

It was not until 2023 that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were normalized through the mediation of China. Both countries exchanged ambassadors again, focused on increased trade and even discussed defense cooperation.

However, Saudi Arabia is also unable to exert any direct influence on Iran due to its history and has instead expressed hope that China can play a role in bringing the situation in the Middle East back to normality.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, this week, according to China's Global Times newspaper.

Wang said China was "willing to work together with Saudi Arabia to prevent further escalation of confrontation" in the Middle East, the report said.

China

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China has condemned the strike on the Iranian consular building in Damascus as a "serious violation of international law," adding the current situation presents a "choice between deterioration and normalization," the Global Times reported.

Officials in Beijing have made similar statements calling for de-escalation in state media.

And there is reason to believe Iran would take China's input into consideration. China is Iran's most important trading partner, an both countries also cooperate militarily.

Foreign Minister Wang and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had a phone conversation on Monday, during which Yang called for restraint.

Wang added that China condemned the missile attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus in the United Nations Security Council.  However, no agreement on a condemnation was reached by the UN body itself.

"China does not want the situation in the Middle East to spiral out of control. The country is already facing rising transportation costs and a drastic increase in energy supply risks," James Dorsey, a political scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told the Singaporean newspaper Zaobao.

However, Dorsey added that China lacks communication channels with Israel. "The only thing China can do is appeal to Israel, together with the international community, to avoid escalation and react with restraint."

Russia

Russia has traditionally maintained good political relations with Israel, Palestinian groups, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Following the recent strikes, Moscow demanded restraint from both Israel and Iran.

The Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, emphasized on Monday in a conversation with the head of the Israeli National Security Council, Zachi Ha-Negbi, the need for "restraint on all sides of the conflict in the Middle East in order to prevent an escalation."

Patrushev emphasized that Russia's position is that tensions between Israel and Iran should be settled "exclusively by political and diplomatic means," according to Russian news agencies.

Russia has long been considered a close ally of Iran, with Tehran and Moscow expanding their cooperation under US sanctions. Iran also supplies drones to the Russian army, which are used against Ukraine.

The increasing tension between Iran and Israel is diverting attention away from the war in Ukraine, and it is questionable whether Russia is interested in de-escalation in the Middle East.

"Anything that leads to an increase in energy prices, especially higher oil prices, is beneficial for Russia, at least in the short term and even in the medium term," David Sharp, an Israeli military expert, told DW. 

"But if Iran were involved in a major war and a war were waged against Iran, it would theoretically be possible to restrict Iranian arms supplies to Russia," he added.

Turkey

Turkey has supported the Palestinian position since the early days of the Middle East conflict. Last week, Ankara even announced economic sanctions against Israel. At the same time, the Turkish government also fears further tension and violence between Iran and Israel. It has called on both parties to exercise restraint.

"Unlike other countries in the region, such as Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has a long land border with Iran," said Gulru Gezer, diplomat and director of foreign policy at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV).

"Possible instability in neighboring Iran could have serious consequences for Turkey, especially with regard to migration from Iran. Unfortunately, Turkey had to experience this with the wars in Syria and Iraq," Gezer told DW.

This article was originally written in German

With additonal reporting by: Cathrin Schaer, Yun-Ching Chang, Olga Tikhomirova, Gülsen Solaker, Wesley Rahn 

Social media platform X has blocked posts in India involving political speech following orders from the country's election commission ahead of upcoming polls, the company said late on Tuesday.

"In compliance with the orders, we have withheld these posts for the remainder of the election period," X said in a statement.

Despite complying, X expressed disagreement with the action and maintained that "freedom of expression should extend to these posts and political speech in general."

The posts, which will be hidden from Indian audiences during the election period, included unverified claims about political opponents, the Election Commission of India said in a letter.  

Modi critics believe freedom of expression at risk in India

X, formerly known as Twitter and owned by Elon Musk, faced a similar situation in Brazil where it was asked to block disinformation-spreading users.

Musk initially threatened to disregard the Brazilian court order but eventually adhered to it.

The billionaire and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to meet his month to explore investment opportunities in India.

Modi's critics say that freedom of expression in India is diminishing. Last year, an Indian court fined X $61,000 (€57,404) because the platform initially resisted removing tweets and accounts that criticized the Modi administration.

India's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen 21 places to 161 out of 180 countries since Modi took office in 2014.

Tuesday's announcement came as India gears up for its general election starting April 19, involving nearly 968 million voters.

ss/wd (AFP, Reuters)

Solomon Islanders began voting on Wednesday in a crucial election that will decide China's foothold in the Pacific region.

Polling booths opened at 7 a.m. local time on Wednesday (2000 GMT on Tuesday), with almost 420,000 registered voters to elect 50 members of the national parliament.

There are more than 1,000 polling stations scattered across the Solomons archipelago, 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) off Australia's coast.

The polling process will be monitored by election observer groups from Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific, Japan, Europe and the US.

China's influence in the South Pacific

"I want my country and the economy to be good and that's why I chose my candidate," Esther Maeluma told AP news agency outside a polling station in the capital Honiara.

While the voters of Solomon Islands will focus on issues such as healthcare, education and infrastructure, the polls will be closely watched by the United States, China and Australia as they vie for regional influence.

The incumbent government of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare built closer ties with China since coming to power in 2019, switching diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing.

This election will be the first since Sogavare's contentious security pact with China. The growing ties led to China's gifting a $100-million (almost €94 million) sporting complex, which hosted the regional Pacific Games last year. Meanwhile, Chinese tech giant Huawei is building a national broadband network in the South Pacific nation.

Critics fear Beijing's navy being allowed to establish a presence in the region.

Sogavare had said Australia remains his government's preferred security partner, even as the US works to build diplomatic bridges with South Pacific island nations.

What the opposition candidates say about China

Prime Minister Sogavare's move toward Beijing resulted in anti-government riots in 2019 targeting the Chinatown district in Honiara.

Two years later, violent mobs tried to storm parliament, attacked Chinatown again and attempted to raze Sogavare's home.

Sogavare faces opposition from candidates who are against Chinese influence in the region.

Opposition leader Matthew Wale of the Solomon Islands Democratic Party has criticized the presence of Chinese police in Solomon Islands.

Similarly, Peter Kenilorea Jr, another key opposition figure from the United Party, has called for the security agreement with China to be terminated, insisting on increased infrastructure partnerships with Western nations to diminish Beijing's influence.

The counting of votes will begin on Thursday, although the result will not be out till more than a week.

ss/wd (AP, AFP, Reuters)

Myanmar's jailed former leader, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has been moved out from prison along with other elderly inmates as a health measure to protect them from severe heat, the military government said on Wednesday.

Win Myint, the 72-year-old former president of her ousted government, was also reportedly among the prisoners taken from prison amid the heat wave. 

A military source told AFP news agency that Suu Kyi and Win Myint were transferred to house arrest.  

Suu Kyi, 78,  has been serving a 27-year prison term in the capital, Naypyitaw, after being convicted on several charges that her supporters and rights groups say were politically motivated.

According to Myanmar's meteorological department, Naypyitaw saw temperatures of 39 C (102.2 F) on Tuesday afternoon.

What did the government say?

"Since the weather is extremely hot, it is not only for Aung San Suu Kyi ... For all those, who need necessary precautions, especially elderly prisoners, we are working to protect them from heatstroke," junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun said in comments reported by four media outlets late on Tuesday.

"Not only Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint but also some old prisoners were given necessary care because of very hot weather," Zaw Min Tun told AFP news agency, using honorific titles to refer to the former leaders.  

Zaw Min Tun did explicitly not say in his remarks where the released prisoners were being moved to.

However, before being sent to prison, Suu Kyi was reportedly held in a military safe house inside an army base.

She was also held under house arrest for a total of 15 years under a previous junta at a family residence on Yangon's Inya Lake, though that was put up for sale in March.

Why is Suu Kyi in prison?

The army ousted the elected government in 2021 and imprisoned Suu Kyi, who was convicted on a range of charges ranging from treason and bribery to violations of the telecommunications law and of COVID-19 rules.

She has largely been hidden from view since the military detained her and has reportedly suffered from ill health.

World leaders and pro-democracy activists have repeatedly called for her release.

Win Myint, her former president, was given an eight-year sentence following the government's ouster.

The 2021 coup, which ended 10 years of democracy in the country after decades of army rule, roused great public opposition, which the military has tried to crush with force. The ensuing conflict has left more than 4,800 civilians dead.

The army is now battling to retain power amid resistance from civilian anti-junta fighters and ethnic minority armed groups.

Prisoner amnesty

State-run MRTV television also announced on Wednesday that the head of the ruling military council, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, had pardoned 3,303 prisoners for the Thingyan New Year holiday, and reduced sentences for others.

Those pardoned include 28 foreigners —13 Indonesians and 15 Sri Lankans — who will be deported, according to MRTV.

Mass amnesties on the holiday are not unusual in Myanmar.

But it is not clear whether the pardoned prisoners included pro-democracy activists.

tj/wd (Reuters, AFP, AP) 

Myanmar officials have confirmed that ousted democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi is now under house arrest after spending years in prison. Former Myanmar President Win Myint has also been transported out of prison. Their present whereabouts were not clear.

According to a representative of the Myanmar's State Administrative Council (SAC), the two politicians were moved to shelter them from sweltering temperatures, which recently hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in the capital, Naypyidaw.

But some are now speculating that the ruling junta might use Suu Kyi in a bid to sow disunity among its opponents, as it faces escalating pressure from a rebel alliance of different ethnic groups and civilian-led forces.

Suu Kyi a 'prime bargaining chip'

The ouster of Suu Kyi in a February 2021 coup sparked a crisis that started with mass protests and escalated with the ongoing armed uprising against military rule. The 78-year-old leader has rarely been seen in the past three years, with even her legal team reportedly unable to meet her in person since December 2022.

Independent Myanmar analyst David Scott Mathieson said that moving Suu Kyi to house arrest could make potential negotiations with the rebels easier.

"The reasons for the change could well be concerns for her health. She's a 78-year-old in a dreadful prison without aircon in a blazing hot time of the year. If you are a cold-hearted general, why would you let a prime bargaining chip die of heatstroke?" he told DW.

"If having her in a guesthouse with better conditions affords some semblance of talks between her and the junta, that could potentially be positive, but only if it leads to some genuine process of getting the junta out of power and ending violence," he added. 

"We shouldn't be falling into the trap of making Suu Kyi's involvement in political solutions essential: it's not anymore," he said.

Junta denies reports of Suu Kyi's health issues

Suu Kyi was sentenced to 33 years in prison on a variety of charges imposed by the junta, although six years were removed following a partial pardon in 2023.

Sources close to Suu Kyi say she has had chronic gum disease and suffers from low blood pressure. Suu Kyi's son, Kim Aris, said last year that his mother had been vomiting and suffering from dizziness and was being denied access to recommended healthcare. She was previously held in solitary confinement, according to Kim.

However, the junta has denied reports about Suu Kyi's ill health, insisting she has received regular check-ups from doctors in prison.

Junta under pressure 

The move to house arrest comes as Myanmar's military junta has suffered a series of defeats by various armed ethnic groups. The groups claim to control at least 60% of Myanmar's territory.

The rebel groups are backed by Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG), which claims to be Myanmar's legitimate administration,

NUG Minister of International Cooperation Dr Sasa said that the claims of Suu Kyi were being moved due to the heat ring hollow.

"If any harm befalls Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint, the Myanmar junta leaders will bear direct responsibility and will be held accountable by the people of Myanmar," he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

The NUG is reportedly concerned that Suu Kyi could be placed at crucial military strongholds, putting her in harm's way as rebels attack.

The rebels have even managed to target Naypyidaw despite it being well fortified by the military. The capital has come under unprecedented drone attacks on junta bases and airfields in April.

"The drone and rocket attacks on Naypyidaw have caused little physical damage or casualties, but they have caused psychological damage; it is their fortress capital and the physical manifestation of the bubble that the generals live in," Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics and security, told DW. 

"Attacks in Naypyidaw are meant to show that there is no place where the generals are safe," he added. 

No unity among rebels

With the junta under pressure, some observers suggest that the military leader will try to use Suu Kyi to gain support from the Bamar people or Burmans, the largest ethnic group in Myanmar, against the growing influence of minority groups.

"There is really no vaunted 'unity' amongst the NUG, People Defense Forces, and Ethnic Armed Organizations. It's been contrived by exiled elites and foreign lackeys, but if any factor is almost certain to cause division within the anti-SAC opposition, it's Suu Kyi." Mathieson said.

While Suu Kyi is still revered by many in Myanmar, she has also been criticized for being too submissive to the junta during her time as the country's top civilian leader.

Her international reputation took a major hit over her denial of the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar in 2016 and 2017. Prominent youth activists have already dismissed her as the face of the revolution. Her fate could cause division among many groups fighting the junta rule.

However, political calculations may fade into the background as the junta faces morale problems of its own — it is losing soldiers to attacks, surrenders and desertion as rebels move in.

The authorities have activated a decade-old military conscription law in February , aiming to secure 60,000 new recruits a year. The junta has also been trying to fill its ranks by recruiting soldiers from the Rohingya ethnic minority group, the same group that was targeted by the military in 2017, leaving at least 10,000 Rohingya killed and 700,000 displaced.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

The European Union's reputation appears to have taken a hit in Southeast Asia, according to a region-wide survey of "elites" conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

The researchers gathered the data by questioning some 2,000 representatives of academia, business, government and civil society in January and February this year. The respondents come from Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Brunei.

The results show that there is now less trust in the EU to uphold free trade or the rules-based order compared with last year.

Less than 14% of the respondents see the EU as the leading champion of the global free trade agenda, down from almost 22% in last year's survey. 

Last year, the EU ranked second as the country or bloc Southeast Asians trusted the most to uphold the international rules-based order and international law.

However, in this year's survey, the EU slipped into third place with its percentage score dipping to nearly 17% from 23%. The bloc was behind the United Sates and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),

What was the response from Brussels?

The survey also showed there is now less confidence that the EU would "do the right thing" to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance. As a regional average, only 41% agreed with that proposition, down from around 51% last year.

Of those who had little or no trust in the EU to "do the right thing," almost a third said it was because they thought Brussels was "distracted with its internal affairs and thus cannot focus on global concerns and issues."

"The findings of the State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey underline that the European Union needs to increase its cooperation efforts with Southeast Asia substantially," said David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee.

Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, described the survey as "a bit like getting a lukewarm report card. It is not all bad, but it is clear we have some homework to do."

EU's support for Israel making it less popular

Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, said the Israel-Hamas war has been by far the most "damaging" issue for the EU over the past 12 months.

"Many in Southeast Asia see [the EU's] unfettered support for Israel and the carnage against Palestinians in Gaza as unacceptable," she told DW.

Indeed, the same State of Southeast Asia survey found that Southeast Asians ranked the Gaza conflict as the most important geopolitical issue, beating the region's own concerns, such as tensions in the South China Sea and a civil war raging in Myanmar.

Malaysia and Indonesia at loggerheads with the EU

Even before the war in Gaza escalated, the EU had been locked in a spat with Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's two largest palm oil producers, over Brussels' deforestation legislation.

The EU plans to ban the import of goods that can be traced to deforestation. Several Southeast Asian states say this unfairly impacts their agricultural sectors and doesn't recognize the climate efforts they are making.

In March, a World Trade Organization (WTO) panel technically ruled in the EU's favor after Malaysia had brought a case to the global trade body. But the WTO also agreed with some of Malaysia's complaints about the way the EU had prepared, published and administered its deforestation regulations.

EU as best 'third option' between US and China

Despite these issues, EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano said that the latest results actually show that trust in "the EU as a partner to ASEAN remains strong."

He told DW that the poll, for instance, found that the EU is ASEAN's fourth most important dialogue partner, after China, the US and Japan, and that it maintained its leading position as ASEAN's preferred strategic partner in hedging against US-China rivalry.

"The 2023 survey showed an uptick in the region's appreciation for the EU's role compared with 2022," he added.

"While this year the EU's position overall has weakened slightly, the overall assessment of the EU's role remains strong and positive," Stano said. 

Stano also advised caution over reading too much into the survey, noting that the composition of its respondents by geographic location and sector changes every year. For example, researchers focused more on the private sector and governments and less on think tanks this year compared to the past.

Rahul Mishra, a senior research fellow at Thammasat University in Thailand, was also skeptical about the survey's results.

"It's surprising how the EU's contributions and active engagement with the region are not properly reflected in the survey," he said, adding that perhaps the pollsters "could have framed the questionnaire more carefully."

What happens next?

For the most part, the survey results indicate that there is still hard work left to do for the EU to convince Southeast Asians of its long-term interests in the region.

"When it comes to shaping up our image and making sure we are seen as good partners in trade and cooperation, there is no magic spell," said EU lawmaker Bernd Lange.

"It is all about rolling up our sleeves, sitting down with our friends in Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, and crafting deals that are fair, that help everyone grow and feel secure in their future," he told DW.

"It is about showing we are in it for the long haul, ready to listen, learn and lift each other up."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, are facing an influx of illegal waste shipments from industrialized nations, with a considerable amount trafficked from Europe.

According to a new UN reportmapping waste trafficking trends from Europe and Southeast Asia, criminal actors exploit loopholes and legitimate business structures, making waste trafficking one of the most significant crimes that can affect the environment.

Despite existing regulations, traffickers are empowered by ineffective law enforcement and low penalties when caught, and tempted by opportunities for easy profit.

The European Commission estimates that 15 to 30% of waste shipments from the EU are illegal, generating billions of euros in illicit revenue annually.

"Once trash is improperly disposed of it becomes everyone's problem. The urgency of addressing waste trafficking cannot be overstated," Masood Karimipour, Southeast Asia representative of the UN office on drugs and crime, told DW.

According to the UN report, ASEAN countries collectively imported more than 100 million tons of metal, paper and plastic waste, valued at nearly $50 billion (€47 billion) between 2017 and 2021.

Indonesia an epicenter of waste trafficking

The global waste trade has undergone a significant shift in recent years due to a series of measures set by China in 2018 to tackle the influx of unwanted waste into the country.

The ripple effect from China's waste ban led to a redirection of global waste streams, notably towards Southeast Asia.

Countries such as Indonesia have emerged as primary destinations for both legitimate and illegal waste shipments.

"In Indonesia, there is no ecosystem that supports sustainable consumption, production and recycling," Yuyun Ismawati , senior advisor at the environmental NGO Nexus3 Foundation, told DW.

After 2018, Indonesia experienced a sudden increase in waste imports, with paper and plastic waste predominantly shipped from western European countries, according to the Indonesia Bureau of Statistics. 

Nexus3 found that plastic waste often contaminates paper scraps, posing an alarming threat to the environment and health in regions like Java or Sumatra.

Problematic plastics are either discarded or donated by paper-importing companies to local communities, who then engage in illegal sorting and burning of plastic.

The fires emit alarming levels of dioxins and hazardous chemicals and ultimately infiltrating human food chains.

Due to the smoke and toxic food, many villagers develop respiratory and stomach diseases or even cancer and must leave their homes.

Waste a profitable business

Despite its detrimental consequences for health and the environment, waste trafficking is still seen as a highly lucrative criminal activity that goes under the radar in Southeast Asia.

According to Serena Favarin, a criminologist at Italy's Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, traffickers use sophisticated methods and supply chains to evade controls and ship waste to countries where regulations are less stringent and prices for illegal disposal of waste are way lower.

"The crime is not enforced in the same way in different countries, and this creates a misalignment in which waste is treated," she told DW.

In many destination countries, for instance, the regulations of waste trafficking do not fall under criminal law, but under civil and administrative regulations.

Even if traffickers openly and consistently violate those rules, the penalties are often minimal, allowing illegal operations to thrive.

How to fight illegal waste

Although illegal waste trafficking causes many problems for communities, experts agree that legal, well-regulated waste management is responsible and necessary. It mitigates damage to the environment and feeds into the circular economy by reducing, reusing and recycling waste.

Many countries and international enforcement operations between Asia and Europe are therefore taking action to close gaps in which criminals can operate and disrupt the economic cycle.

"It is important to strengthen the transnational dimension in order to have similar regulations among countries. With similar regulations it is easier to discuss," Favarin said.

The harmonization of legal frameworks can help to pass stronger laws and impose harsher penalties for crimes connected with waste trafficking.

The EU is currently updating its waste shipment regulations to reduce problematic exports and boost enforcement, with the changes expected to be adopted at the end of this month.

Moreover, new technology can come in handy for environment protection.

"Drones or satellite images can help in detecting huge amounts of waste or piles of waste in specific areas like illegal waste sites or illegal fires in protected areas," Favarin added.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

The world's biggest election begins in India on Friday, with around 970 million registered voters eligible to cast their votes in a mammoth seven-phase poll starting April 19 and lasting six weeks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hoping to win a third successive term, as voters elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha, India's lower house of parliament.

The contest involves 6 national parties, 57 state parties, and 2,597 smaller parties which are allowed on the ballot but do not meet the terms to be officially recognized by the national Election Commission.

However, the main race will be between India's two biggest political parties; the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Indian National Congress (INC).

In 2024, to present a cohesive opposition to the BJP and Modi, Congress is at the lead of a 28-party alliance with several regional opposition parties, under a banner called the "Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance," or INDIA.

Modi and BJP remain popular with voters

According to survey and opinion polls, Prime Minister Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP are widely expected to come out on top in the 2024 election.

Modi is a popular leader, partly thanks to a platform aimed at India's Hindu majority, which comprises 80% of the population. Modi has also ushered in various economic growth schemes, and has promised that India will become the world's third largest economy by 2029.

In the 2019 election, the BJP secured a landslide victory with 303 seats, and formed a coalition which controls a total of 353 seats. The Congress party, on the other hand, won 52 seats, and added 91 more with allies.

Now, with the BJP in power for a decade with the prospect of securing five more years, critics say the Modi government is reversing India's decadeslong commitment to multiparty democracy and secularism.

Since the BJP was reelected in 2019, tensions between Hindus and India's Muslim minority have escalated.

The BJP's continuous reliance on an aggressive Hindu nationalist agenda has been effective to secure votes in the past. But the BJP's political opponents say the party's ultra-nationalist rhetoric threatens to displace secularism as the foundation of India's constitution.

Syeda Hameed, a women's rights activist and a former member of India's Planning Commission, fears the constitution could be altered if the BJP wins the general election again.

"It has been declared very openly that India will become a theocratic state if they [BJP] alter the constitution depending on the majority that they have," she told DW.

"That is one palpable fear we have that constitution can be changed and the whole climate of oppression can be much exacerbated," Hameed added.

The opposition bloc has been accusing the BJP government of democratic backsliding while also raising issues related to unemployment and price inflation during the high-stakes campaign.

World's largest electorate

According to official numbers, India has 497 million male voters and 471 million female voters. The electorate has grown by 6% compared to the last general election in 2019.

Over 20 million young voters in the 18 to 29 age group have been added to the electorate.

"The young are exhibiting a different trend, and the interesting trend is that they are not merely voting just for parties but for leaders," BJP politician G V L Narasimha Rao told DW.

"It is the image of the leaders and of the candidates which seems to be an important factor for them than the elder counterparts," Rao added.

Turnouts for Indian elections are generally high. In 2019, 66% of voters cast a ballot, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI).

How does the election work?

India holds a general election every five years. The 2024 election will choose the 18th Lok Sabha, the lower house of paliament. The country's first election after independence was held from October 1951 to February 1952.

National elections are overseen by the Election Commission of India (ECI), which deploys election observers to ensure transparency throughout the six weeks of voting.

Over the six-week election, voting takes place staggered by region, which is determined by the ECI based on factors like the population of the state, along with political factors like the potential for disruption or security concerns.

Voting in the final phase will take place on June 1, and all the ballots will be counted on June 4. Results will be announced on the same day. To secure a majority, a party or coalition must get 272 seats in parliament.

The staggered voting by region also allows election officials, observers and security personnel to travel from one region to another, and ensure there is no malfeasance.

The ECI has enforced a model code of conduct, which is a set of guidelines for the conduct of political parties and candidates during elections and effectively imposes penalties on those who break the rules.

The main purpose of the code is to ensure that ruling parties do not misuse their position to gain an unfair edge, with the rules also designed to avert practices that are deemed corrupt.

Almost 340,000 security personnel from the central armed police forces have been requisitioned to assist existing state police forces, who will be transported by rail from one location to another.

Ahead of voting, India's chief election commissioner, Rajiv Kumar, appealed to political parties to remain civil particularly with issues like hate speech and misinformation coming to the forefront during the campaign.

"We are committed to a political ethical discourse. I would appeal to parties to maintain decorum and refrain from abuses and personal attacks," Kumar told the media.

Billions for campaign spending

Electoral rules mandate that a polling station must be available within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of every home. In 2024, voters will cast their ballots at over 1.25 million polling stations on 5.5 million electronic voting machines (EVMs) set up across India's 28 states and nine union territories.

India has been using secure EVMs since 1999. In 2014, printers were introduced that deposit a hard copy of each ballot into a sealed box called a "Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail," ensuring an additional layer of security.

In the last 2019 election, an estimated $8.7 billion (€8.02 billion) was spent by political parties and candidates.

However, this time the figure has gone up with the New Delhi-based Centre for Media Studies estimating that political parties and candidates are set to spend more than $14.4 billion in the elections.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

Bipin Das* says he worked for the Indian National Congress party (INC) for over two decades before switching to the ruling right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) two months ago.

He told DW that, following a recent redrawing of constituency boundaries in the northeast state of Assam, he was left with no choice.

"The Congress is never going to come to power here, we are 100% sure," Das said.

The centrist and secular INC, often known simply as the Congress, is the primary opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP. But with the  general election starting on Friday, the party is facing a murky future and struggling with a crisis of confidence in its leader Rahul Gandhi.

Das and many other ex-INC members now believe they are better off with the BJP, the Hindu nationalist party of Prime Minister Modi. Last week, 800 Congress members in the western coastal state Gujarat changed allegiance to the BJP.

Why are Congress members leaving?

The party's issues go beyond the grassroots level. Defectors include senior INC members such as Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, the former member of parliament Naveen Jindal, the former chief minister of Maharashtra Ashok Chavan, and Assam's Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Those who have left cite many reasons for their change of heart. For some, it was the appeal of Modi as a charismatic leader, which puts him in stark contrast with Congress leadership.

"When people listen to Rahul Gandhi, they remember his words for the next 10 minutes," Das told DW. "But the way Modi influences people's minds, the listeners go on to preach on his behalf."

For others, it was reading the writing on the wall.

"Many Congress men feel that they may not come to power for a long time," said journalist and political commentator Neerja Chowdhury.

Experts say it could take the Congress years to refill their ranks and regain relevance, putting members' personal ambitions on hold in the opposition camp, while greener pastures lie just across the political divide. 

New era of 'no ideology'

An ideological factor, or rather the lack thereof, is also influencing party members to change colors. Chowdhury notes that some politicians are known to switch sides ahead of elections.

"But of late we're seeing a slightly different phenomenon in addition to this, and that is politics becoming de-ideologized," she said.

Without an ideology, politicians are able to change alliances more freely.

A recent example includes Gourav Vallabh, a former Congress spokesperson who joined the BJP. Addressing the media, he said he could not stand for criticism or negative rhetoric towards Hindu traditions — a somewhat surprising stance after Vallabh had spent years attacking the BJP's core ideas, which are centered around just that.

"Nowadays, there is no ideology," said Omair Khan, the national coordinator of the Congress' minority department.

Gandhi wearing out his welcome

Chowdhury also believed the current state of the Congress was a result of its own actions. Rather than innovating or seeking new strategies, the party persisted in its traditional approach, consistently relying on the Gandhi family for leadership.

The party could have projected Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress president, as the new face of the Indian opposition, according to Chowdhury. Kharge is a Dalit, a member of the lowest caste in traditional Hindu social hierarchy. India "has never had a Dalit Prime Minister," Chowdhury said. Promoting Kharge could tilt Dalits' votes in favor of Congress.

Instead, the party still focuses on Rahul Gandhi — the great-grandson of India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, the grandson of the nation's first female Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, and son of another former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Rahul Gandhi leading the Congress "suits the BJP to the hilt," said Chowdhury, as Gandhi "may be saying the right thing (…) but he is not seen as a counter to Modi at the bigger level."

Another mistake the Congress made, according to the political commentator, was not carving out a bigger role for its young leaders. Now those young leaders have moved on to join the BJP, with those such as Scindia taking on roles in Modi's cabinet.

"And I'm not saying the Gandhi family should not play a role [in the Congress]. But it has to go beyond the Gandhi family being at the center of it," Chowdhury added.

She said the party finds itself on the back foot because it is "not able to get their act together" to "counter either the narrative of the BJP, or the personality of Narendra Modi, or the humongous machinery that the BJP has become."

State pressure to join BJP

Experts also claim the BJP is pressuring the opposition through state bodies. India's Enforcement Directorate, Income Tax Department, and the Central Bureau of Investigation have all been used to target opposition leaders, they say.

Such issues often go away if the targeted individuals decide to join the ruling party. An investigation by Mumbai-based daily The Indian Express highlighted that, since 2014, 23 out of 25 notable opposition politicians have seen investigations against them either closed or put on hold after joining the BJP. Additionally, an earlier report by the same newspaper revealed that 95% of individuals scrutinized by law enforcement agencies belonged to opposition parties.

"No statutory bodies or investigative agencies have ever been truly independent, but in recent years the boundaries have been completely blurred to serve the party interests of the ruling regime," a Bangalore-based political anthropologist said. "Hence, defections or desertions from one party to the BJP are even more common. It has been incentivized to join the BJP to get a 'clean sheet' from all corruption or other criminal charges."

No response from INC

It would appear that the Congress does not know how to discourage members from leaving in droves. "If the Congress knew what to do, it would be doing it," said Chowdhury.

At the same time, she sid it was crucial for the Congress  to act as a counterweight to the ruling party, thereby upholding one of the most basic principles of a democracy — maintaining checks and balances.

"For the Congress to lose, to slump, to not be able to revive is not a good thing for India's democracy," she said.

*Name changed upon request.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

The alleged mastermind of arguably the largest corruption scandal in Southeast Asian history was sentenced to death in Vietnam last week as the country's communist government ratchets up its anti-corruption campaign.

Truong My Lan, 67, was charged with the embezzlement of around  $12.5 billion  (€11.7 billion), the equivalent of around 3% of Vietnam's 2022 GDP, from the Saigon Joint Commercial Bank (SCB).

She also illegally owed a majority share of the bank, and was found guilty for allowing loans that resulted in losses of €25.2 billion.

The Ho Chi Minh City court said that her actions "not only violate the property management rights of individuals but also pushed [the bank] into a state of special control, eroding people's trust in the leadership of the [ruling Communist] party and state."

Prosecutors had demanded the death sentence, arguing that Lan should be "ostracized from society forever," according to local media.

Tuong Vu, professor and director of the US-Vietnam Research Center at the University of Oregon, said the Communist Party wanted to send a message to Vietnamese society that it "is serious about fighting corruption" and to remind the business community not to be "too greedy" and under the illusion that it can escape investigations from the authorities.

Death sentence a 'double-edged sword'

However, the sentencing of Truong My Lan to death is a "double-edged sword," said a senior member of the European business community in Vietnam, who requested anonymity. 

"On the one hand, it shows that Vietnam is serious about tackling corruption and that is to be welcomed," they said. "But, from a European sentiment point of view, the death penalty is not something that could be condoned."

Brussels "strongly opposes the death penalty at all times and in all circumstances," EU spokesperson Peter Stano told DW.

Vietnam ratified the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in 1982, which strictly limits the application of the death penalty to "the most serious crimes," Stano said.

He added that the EU has called on Vietnam "to introduce a moratorium on any imposition of capital punishment, with a view to its abolition."

It's possible that an appeal court will overturn the death sentence, said Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute's Vietnam Studies Program in Singapore.

In the past, he noted, courts have meted out death sentences to pressure defendants into revealing more information about their crimes, helping the state to recover the losses.

"If Lan becomes more cooperative, it is possible that her sentence may be reduced to life imprisonment," Hiep said.

However, analysts reckon that the Communist Party has to balance offering clemency in return for more information on the whereabouts of stolen assets with the apparent deterrence factor of Lan's death sentence.

"The prevalence of cross-holdings between banks and private enterprises, as well as the practice of related-party lending by private banks, poses significant risks to the banking system and the economy as a whole," said Hiep.

"The government appears determined to prevent another banking scandal like SCB from occurring, and Lan's death sentence serves as a strong message to bank owners that they must cease illegal business practices or face severe consequences," he added.

Vietnam extends anti-corruption net

In 2016, Nguyen Phu Trong, the Communist Party general secretary, unleashed a large-scale anti-corruption campaign that has now resulted in the dismissal or imprisonment of thousands of party officials and business leaders.

Two state presidents, including President Vo Van Thuong last month, have resigned for allegedly failing to curb corruption.

Lan and her family made a small fortune in the hotel and restaurant sector during the heady days of unchecked capitalism in the 1990s, after the Vietnamese Communist Party adopted a market economy in 1986.

In 2001, she headed up a merger between the beleaguered Saigon Joint Commercial Bank (SCB) and two other lenders. State prosecutors, who reportedly provided literal tons of printed documents as evidence, claim that Lan used the bank as her own personal cash dispenser.

According to the prosecution, Lan acquired around 90% of a stake in SCB through shell companies and proxies despite Vietnamese law prohibiting individuals from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank.

She then appointed compliant officers at the bank who approved dodgy loans to fictitious companies run by Lan and her associates, with reports that she was the recipient of 93% of all the bank's lending.

State inspectors were bribed not to question the legality of these payments. A former chief inspector at the central bank was handed a life sentence for accepting a $5 million bribe.

Starting in early 2019, she allegedly withdrew more than $4 billion in cash from the bank and stored it in her home.

Rumors of Lan's corruption have swirled for years, not least because she and her close associates have purchased vast swathes of prime real estate in Ho Chi Minh City.

Her husband, Eric Chu Nap-kee, a Hong Kong national, was sentenced to nine years in prison for his role in the scandal, while her niece was given a 17-year prison term. Four executives, including central bank regulators, were handed life sentences.

Concerns over Vietnam's banking sector 

In recent years, Vietnam's so-called "blazing furnace" anti-graft campaign has increasingly targeted private companies, especially those in the financial sector.

The campaign has created an image of Vietnam as a country that is cleaning up the sort of endemic corruption rife in many Southeast Asian states.

At the same time, however, Vietnam's rating in Transparency International's 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index dipped from 42 to 41 on a 0-100 scale where 0 means highly corrupt.

Moreover, the scale of the corruption uncovered in recent years has raised questions about how much of the rot remains within Vietnam's economic system.

There are now concerns about the caliber of Vietnam's banking sector, especially given how easy it seemingly was for Lan and her associates to pilfer €11 billion from a private bank.

The trial of involving another vast fraud case in the stock market involving Trinh Van Quyet, former chairman of real estate developer FLC Group, is likely to start this year.

Prosecutors are seeking the conviction of at least 51 people involved in this scandal after investigations were wrapped up in February. 

Anti-graft efforts can also affect decision making at the local level. State officials have reportedly grown so fearful of being accused of wrongdoing that they are now hesitant to make risky decisions, especially over much-needed infrastructure projects. A wrong decision could prompt extra spending, which could lead to them being charged with the loss of state money.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

Election campaigning is in full swing in Indian-administrated Kashmir, with the upcoming general election the first major vote in the region since it was stripped of its limited autonomy in August 2019.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the first of the five phases of voting will take place on April 19, and the results of five Kashmir Lok Sabha (parliamentiary constituency) elections and one Union Territory seat election will be announced on June 4.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to make unprecedented inroads in Kashmir but the Hindu nationalist BJP has been struggling in the Muslim-majority region.

Modi has now pledged to work hard to "win the hearts of the people." In one of his three recent rallies in Kashmir, the Indian prime minister announced development projects worth more than $700 million (€678.5 million).

BJP stands by revocation of Article 370

Modi is facing an uphill battle as both he and Home Minister Amit Shah consistently praise the removal of Article 370 — stripping Jammu and Kashmir of their autonomy — as a major BJP achievement.

Article 370 had allowed Jammu and Kashmir to have its own constitution. Under locally approved laws, this meant that only local Kashmiris could vote, own land, and apply for government jobs and scholarships. Critics claim that scrapping the land ownership provision was a move by the BJP to engineer a demographic change in the Muslim-majority region.

Modi reaffirmed his support for the change during the ongoing campaign.

"This freedom has come after the abrogation of Article 370. There is dignity and rights for all," Modi said while addressing a jam-packed sports stadium in the region's largest city, Srinagar, last month.

Still no word on BJP candidates

Kashmir has long been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan as both countries claim the region in its entirety but each runs only part of it. An armed insurgency against Indian rule erupted in the region in the early 1990s and several armed separatist groups remain active today.

"It is unlikely that BJP will attract votes spontaneously in Kashmir," local political expert Ahmad, who wanted to be identified only by his first name, told DW.

"The central government led by the party (BJP) has imposed an autocratic rule over the region. People are desperate for that one chance that will help them get rid of the central rule," the expert said.

The BJP has yet to nominate a single candidate for the three parliamentary seats in the Muslim-majority parts of Kashmir. This could be seen as a tacit acknowledgment that BJP lacks influence in those areas.

The Indian election commission allows for some last minute decisions in places where security might be at risk.

BJP sees its chance in cutting into the votes of traditionally strong parties, "either by manipulating the institutions or by pitting one party against another," which appears to be an ongoing process, according to Ahmad.

NC claims campaign roadblocks

National Conference (NC), a prominent regional party that has ruled Kashmir for most of the past seven decades, is accusing many contesting parties of aligning with the BJP to undermine its electoral prospects. The party sees Jammu and Kashmir as part of India, but is also in favor of regional autonomy and has pushed to keep Article 370 in place. This stance has made it unpopular with Islamist separatists.

The residence of Sakina Itoo, a senior NC leader from the South Kashmir city of Kulgam, is protected by barbed wire atop its perimeter walls and a huge bunker — guarded by paramilitary personnel — at its gate. Itoo told DW that her house had been attacked by armed rebels 13 times, and that her father was killed by militants when she was studying in college. 

At the same time, Itoo says that the government has made the ongoing election campaign challenging, despite NC being a nationalist party.

"They don't permit us to campaign for our parliamentary candidate. You need permission for people, for speakers, for loudspeakers, for flags if you want to hold a rally," she says, noting that these restrictions are not noticeable elsewhere.

Chance to speak up on Kashmir autonomy

The NC and its main rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have announced their candidates for the Muslim-majority seats in the region.

Both the PDP and the NC are part of the opposition INDIA alliance, which was formed to fight against Narendra Modi's BJP in India. However, the two parties chose not to unite against the BJP in the Kashmir vote.

The region has also been without an elected government since the alliance between the PDP and the BJP collapsed in 2018.

Praveen Dhonti, a senior analyst with the US-based think tank Crisis Group, told DW that the upcoming election would put BJP claims that Kashmiris are happy with the scrapping of Article 370 to the test.

The voters "might be keen to express themselves through the ballot since all the other avenues are closed and the assembly elections haven't been held," he added.

New Delhi has undertaken a series of measures such as the process of delimitation, revision of electoral rolls, and granting of reservation to the Pahari community in hopes that it will help the BJP register its first win in the Kashmir Valley. But experts remain skeptical.

"The BJP, its allies, and proxies will have to coordinate efficiently on the ground to make any inroads," Dhonti said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

YouTuber Dhruv Rathee, a 29-year-old from India living in Europe, has recently set Indian social media humming with a video criticizing the direction his country was moving in under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Rathee's video "Is India becoming a DICTATORSHIP?" (sic) has amassed over 24 million views since it was uploaded in late February. In it, the creator cites instances of media control and claims state agencies are being used against opposition leaders, eventually alleging that these efforts are part of a broader trend to silence Modi's rivals.

Rathee has some 17.6 million subscribers on his main YouTube channel. And the platform is booming in India — it currently has over 460 million users in the world's most populous country.

By 2029, it is expected to have over 859 million Indian users, according to estimates by Statista, an online platform specializing in data gathering and visualization.

As more and more people turn to YouTube to get news, more journalists are also migrating to the platform to cover Indian news and politics, hoping to find a way out of India's more traditional and polarized media landscape.

Newsrooms 'diminished'

The space for independent reporters in India's newsrooms has been shrinking for a while.

Independent journalist Ravish Kumar, one of the country's best-known media personalities, says many journalists have been ideologically transformed and are increasingly influenced by the state.

"Even if there is a political change, it will not change the situation in the media. The way the newsroom has been diminished, there has been a cascading effect in local newsrooms across states in India as well," Kumar, who used to work for the mainstream NDTV media channel, told DW.

He is now a one-man media company and now boasts 8 million subscribers on YouTube where he launched his channel in October 2022.

"Mainstream media does a banal analysis of data and there is very little factual analysis of the prime minister's speeches. There is only a reproduction of biases, which has been done in the last few elections," Kumar said.

Tweaking laws to control messaging

Recently, however, the government has been pushing amendments to existing media laws.

The laws include the Telecommunications Bill of 2023, the draft Broadcasting Services (Regulation) Bill of 2023, and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act of 2023. Critics say that officials want to have more control over what can be posted on the internet.

Last week, YouTube removed the channel of digital Hindi news outlet "Bolta Hindustan," which had close to 300,000 subscribers. YouTube refused to give any reasons for the suspension, but some reports indicate it was done on instructions from the Indian government.

The move also comes just months after the "Bolta Hindustan" handle was suspended on Instagram.

"The government has a way of getting to you," political satirist Akash Banerjee told DW. "You cannot fully be yourself. Of course, there is self-censorship here, too. One must be controlled, as I know the knock on my door can happen, too," added the host of the political satire channel The DeshBhakt (The Patriot) on YouTube.

BJP boasts its own influencers

Indian authorities blocked 104 YouTube channels and 45 videos from the beginning of 2021 to October 2022, under the provisions of the Information Technology (IT) Act, which can be invoked to restrict access to content in the interest of the sovereignty and integrity of the country. The government has also repeatedly clashed with X, formerly Twitter.

Last year, social media platforms were directed to block a BBC documentary that implicated Modi in the 2002 Gujarat riots.

Sharing links and clips from the documentary was banned, and the government deployed police to stop students from screening the film.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has also tried to rope in YouTube and Instagram influencers and gain their help to promote its campaigns and shape voters' opinions ahead of the general election set to start this month.

'The crackdown has been way too transparent'

Digital players have been "doing more public interest journalism, news, and commentary than legacy media over the past several years," said Abhinandan Sekhri, co-founder and CEO of the Indian media watchdog "Newslaundry."

"The government sees this and has since amended and introduced several rules and to have more control and tighter regulation of the digital space," he told DW.

"The blocking of YouTube channels and social media accounts is only the next step in this ongoing trend. The crackdown has been way too transparent and unselfconscious for any self-respecting democracy," he added.

'Fake news' watchdog put on hold

And yet, there are some positive signals for those who warn that the government is trying to tighten its grip on the media.

In March, India's Supreme Court put on hold an official initiative to identify fake news related to the government.

The official Fact Check Unit (FCU) had been formed to respond to any posts that it deemed fake or containing misleading facts about the business of the government. Part of the response would be to flag those posts to social media intermediaries.

The initiative was challenged in court by the stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra, who argued that the FCU would coerce social media companies to implement censorship of online content pertaining to the government.

"The establishment of the FCU would muzzle speech against the government. The new IT rules will have a chilling effect on free speech. Elections are coming, the public must have all information about the government, not information filtered out as 'fake' by the government," Kamra told DW.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

 

When Europe talks about aid for Ukraine, it looks to itself and the United States. But for months, politicians in Washington have been unable to agree on a new multibillion aid package for Ukraine.

As a result, other countries have increased their share of support. Among them is Japan, which, according to Ukraine's Finance Ministry, has quietly become one of Kyiv's most important financial backers, leading the way in the first months of 2024.

Aid, not weapons

At a conference in Japan in February, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the aid provided and pledged would total $12 billion (€11.2 billion). According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Japan was in sixth place for international aid to Ukraine in January, providing more than €7 billion.

This aid from Japan is helping to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat. The National Bank estimates the country's gross domestic product has shrunk by a third since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. While Japan cannot supply Ukraine with lethal weapons for historical reasons and national legal restrictions, it can send food, medicine, generators, cars, bulletproof vests and demining equipment.

Missile workaround?

But Ukraine needs weapons, and Japan might be able to help despite its constitutionally enshrined pacifism. The Japanese press has reported there could be a delivery to the US of missiles manufactured in Japan for American Patriot anti-aircraft systems so that Washington could pass its missiles on to Ukraine.

In response, Russian Foreign Ministry representatives said the appearance of Japanese missiles in Ukraine would have "consequences" for Moscow's relations with Tokyo.

Atsuko Higashino, a professor studying the conflict in Ukraine at the University of Tsukuba, is in favor of such a delivery, as the missiles are "not a weapon to kill, but to protect the Ukrainian people." She does not believe that such a delivery can be expected "in the near future," however, because Japan has a "serious deficit" when it comes to defense systems.

James Brown, a professor and expert in Russia-Japan relations at Temple University in Tokyo, believes the deliveries of Patriot missiles to the US are already "largely agreed." He added that the delays are due to regulations, explaining that it's very important to Japan that its missiles aren't delivered directly to Ukraine.

'Radical change' in relations with Russia

But how has Japan become one of Ukraine's most important partners? "When Japan assists Ukraine, when it pushes back against Russian aggression, it’s really thinking about trying to uphold an international system that prevents changes of the status quo by force," said Brown.

He added that Japan aims to "deter China from attempting something similar with respect to Taiwan." Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed this with US President Joe Biden at last week's tripartite summit on the Indo-Pacific in Washington.

Japan's attitude toward Ukraine and Russia has "radically changed," said political analyst Higashino. While Japan "accepted the illegal annexation of Crimea" and "Russian propaganda" in 2014, she said everything was different after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This is due, among other things, to "the clear violation of the UN Charter" and the Russian army's "brutality" in Bucha near Kyiv.

Exceptions for fossil fuels

A change at the top of the government played a role in this shift. "Under previous leadership, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan pursued very much a rapprochement with Russia. With a real aim to try and develop relations of partnership to resolve the country’s territorial dispute, to sign a peace treaty," said Brown.

"But after 2022, the Japanese government recognized that those efforts are not really going to work, and instead, their priority has become not to create a partnership with Russia but rather to try and ensure that Russian aggression against Ukraine fails."

In contrast to Abe, Prime Minister Kishida has undertaken "very far-reaching sanctions against Russia," said Higashino. "That was simply unthinkable before."

Still, Japan has not completely cut off relations with Russia. There are exceptions for some areas of the economy, particularly in the energy sector. Japanese car companies have withdrawn from the lucrative Russian market, but Japan is still involved in the Gazprom-led Sakhalin 2 oil and gas project, although other Western companies are no longer participating. The project supplies Japan with liquefied natural gas (LNG). With virtually no fossil fuels of its own, Japan sources around 9% of its gas from Russia.

Kyiv returns the favor

As a gesture of support for Japan, the Ukrainian parliament passed a decree in October 2022 that sided with Tokyo in the Russian-Japanese dispute over the Kuril Islands. It recognizes that the "Northern Territories," as the islands are called in Japan, "continue to be occupied by the Russian Federation. 

A similar decree was also signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

This article was originally written in Russian.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in  China for a three-day diplomatic visit that includes meetings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Accompanied by a high-level business delegation, the German leader is expected to address grievances over the trade deficit between the EU common market and the world's second-largest economy.

Scholz is also expected to question China's ties with Russia amid the Ukraine war and Beijing's aggressiveness toward Taiwan — a self-ruled island China claims as its own.

Scholz is scheduled to meet Xi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Tuesday, the last day of his trip. This is Scholz's second trip to China as chancellor — he completed his first visit in November 2022.

What's on the agenda as Scholz returns to China?

Much has changed since Scholz's last visit to Beijing. Last year, Berlin unveiled its first ever "Strategy on China" aimed at reducing dependence on the Chinese market in critical areas and bringing Germany into line with the EU's push for "de-risking" from the Asian superpower.

And yet, Scholz is traveling with a group of industrial executives, signaling Berlin's intention to maintain business ties.

Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a former political adviser in the European Parliament and an assistant professor at Taiwan's National Dong Hwa University, said the change in Germany's language on China "doesn't seem to materialize in reality."

"The question is, why is Scholz going to [Beijing] now?" Ferenczy told DW, describing the trip as an element of Germany "figuring out how to live up to its own commitments."

Philippe Le Corre, an expert on China-Europe relations at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, said that perception is divided within Germany on how to continue doing business with China.

The split exists not only within the government coalition, but also among different industries, he said. There are at least two types of business groups, including "those who want to invest more in China" and "those who feel China is becoming too much of a competitor."

How will Scholz address Ukraine and Taiwan?

In addition to this dilemma, Scholz faces pressure from Brussels on geopolitical issues. When meeting Xi, he would need to address China's support for Russia's war machine amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Also, China's growing military presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait has raised concerns in the West.

"In Europe, the interest on the Taiwan issue has never been stronger, even for Germany, which tends to be more business-minded than France or the UK," said Le Corre, who expects Scholz to bring up the Taiwan issue during his time in China.

In June 2023, Scholz met with Premier Li in Berlin. According to Scholz's comments in the German parliament, the chancellor had warned Beijing against using force to achieve territorial changes, particularly against Taiwan — even though his comments to lawmakers were reportedly stronger then the ones he made during Li's visit.

During the trip "we can expect Berlin to perhaps stay on the same line with what they had said before, that the use of force is not acceptable," Ferenczy told DW. "But it's a question of how they will balance raising security concerns and economic interests."

Le Corre has a similar view.

"They're not here to talk geopolitics," he said, "so the credibility for your language on politics or diplomacy is kind of hampered."

Beijing 'unhappy' with EU probe into its electric cars

China has its own issues with the EU — most notably the investigation launched by the European Commission into Chinese electric vehicles (EV) and state subsidies.

The probe was announced in September. It could allow European authorities to impose punitive tariffs on cheaper Chinese EV imports in a bid to protect EU manufacturers.

China's ambassador to the EU has described the investigation as "unfair" and said Beijing was cooperating "because we do want to avoid a situation that the two sides will have to resort to trade measures against each other."

Le Corre told DW that Scholz will have to comment on this issue during his trip, as Germany is China's largest trade partner in the EU. And the German leader would likely face pushback from Beijing, with Chinese leaders asking: "If you want to do business with us, then why launch this investigation against Chinese EVs?"

'Playing different cards' to different EU members

China's diplomatic efforts go far beyond Germany. In May, China's Xi is set to visit Europe and meet French President Emmanuel Macron.

Analyst Le Corre told DW that Xi will likely play different cards since China is "the champion of dividing European countries."

Noah Barkin, a senior adviser with Rhodium Group's China practice, said the EU has spent the past year building up its economic leverage with China through the use of trade tools and the launch of its economic security agenda.

But he pointed out "that leverage can be undermined very quickly if the leader of Europe's biggest economy sends different signals to Beijing."

Against this backdrop, Ferenczy said she would expect Berlin to represent the message sent by the EU that "trade with China needs to be rebalanced." Otherwise, "I think this trip that Scholz is undertaking serves only German interests."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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The campaign was bruising, the ruling bloc's defeat was crushing and now South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is contrite — after his People Power Party (PPP) lost its parliamentary majority on Wednesday, Yoon promised to reform the nation to better reflect the public's will.

"I will humbly accept the will of the people expressed in the general election and will strive to reform the administration and do my best to stabilize the economy and enhance people's livelihoods," Yoon said in a statement delivered by his chief of staff.

This is a tall order for a leader without a parliamentary majority. The scale of the defeat — the PPP and allied parties won just 108 seats in the 300-strong National Assembly — means the opposition can, if it wishes, block any legislative initiatives for the remainder of Yoon's three years in office and take every opportunity to score political points.

And Yoon's rivals are already on the move. Just hours after the election, Cho Kuk, the head of the newly established Rebuilding Korea Party, demanded an investigation into Kim Keon Hee, Yoon's wife. The case is in connection with allegations of manipulating stock prices of a car dealership in 2012 and accepting an expensive Dior handbag from a left-wing pastor in 2022.

Cho seeks revenge

Many believe Cho is on a revenge mission. Cho was appointed justice minister in 2019, but was only in office for 35 days before resigning in the face of allegations of tax evasion and falsifying his daughter's academic achievements to help her obtain a place at a prestigious medical university.

Those investigations of Cho and his family — which led to his wife being sentenced to a prison term and Cho losing his job in the law faculty of Seoul National University — were conducted by Yoon, who was then chief prosecutor.

Cho has managed to stage a surprising political comeback, launching his Rebuilding Korea Party only a month before the election and winning 12 seats as part of an alliance with the larger Democratic Party.

Settling old scores, however, might not be the best strategy for the opposition.

Newspaper editorials in the last two days have broadly called on the main parties to find ways to work together for the good of the nation, to try to move on from the sometimes vicious electioneering of recent weeks and reduce the polarization in politics.

'Be humble, listen to the people'

The leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, is already looking ahead to 2027, when Yoon is due to step down after completing the single five-year term granted by the South Korean constitution.

Lee will work to make his party "appear reasonable," Kim Sang Woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, told DW.

"The best way to achieve that may be to keep the debates polite and low-key, so that he and the party can translate the landslide they have just won in these midterm elections into a similar win in the presidential vote in three years," he said.

Yoon, similarly, needs to reform his image and come across as being "less arrogant, less condescending" because those attributes have clearly made the electorate "angry," Kim said.

Even though he is barred from running again, Yoon will need to "be humble and listen to people" in order to give his party a fighting chance.

This will mean more focus on policy differences, such as Yoon's proposals for tax cuts, or the Democratic Party's push for funding renewable energy sources, which clashes with the government's preference for nuclear power. Yoon and his allies also have a firmer stance on North Korea than their rivals from the liberal Democratic Party, and the latest PPP government has moved the country closer to the US and Japan. Senior members of the Democratic Party are instead calling for improved ties with China and for Seoul to avoid involvement in Beijing's claims to Taiwan.

Opposition leaders also in trouble

Park Jung Won, a professor of international Law at Dankook University, believes Yoon can claw back some of the popularity that won him the presidency before the 2027 election. The professor points out that Democratic Party leader Lee also faces allegations of illegal activity.

"There is huge judicial risk attached to Lee" over a high-profile corruption case linked to a land development project during Lee's time as mayor of Seongnam, Park told DW.

Lee — who made his latest court appearance the day before the election — has also been linked to the illegal transfer of funds to North Korea, although he has denied all the charges against him.

"I have never seen a political party with so many legal issues hanging over it," he said.

Similarly, a cloud of scandal still hangs over ally Cho Kuk, Park added. Park believes the conflict between the new parliament and the president will escalate.

"Lee may be relatively quiet at the moment, but the No. 1 priority for both [Cho] and Lee is revenge against Yoon, including the possibility of impeachment," he added. "The next few years are going to be challenging."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have reached agreement on a wide range of issues at the outset of the Japanese leader's weeklong visit to the US. The common ground includes the importance of support for Ukraine, the joint development of emerging technologies and plans for the two nations' space agencies to work together to put a Japanese astronaut on the moon.

For Kishida, however, nothing was more important than securing Biden's renewed commitment to the security and stability of northeast Asia at a time when China continues to expand its military capabilities and confront neighbors in territorial disputes while, simultaneously, North Korea develops more advanced ballistic missiles and reinforces its ties with Russia.

Biden welcomed his Japanese counterpart to the White House on Wednesday by underlining the "unbreakable" and "global" alliance uniting the two nations, and applauded Japan's commitment to increasing defense spending and reinforcing the alliance.

'Global partnership' promise

"The alliance between Japan and the US is a cornerstone of peace, security, prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and around the world," Biden said. "Ours is truly a global partnership. For that, Mr. Prime Minister Kishida, I thank you."

The two leaders' talks resulted in no fewer than 70 "deliverables" — or agreements — but the vow to establish even stronger military ties was arguably the most significant. It's expected to lead to the largest shake-up in Japan's military alliance with Washington since the signing of the US-Japan security treaty in San Francisco in September 1951.

"So much is going on in the world right now, it is all inevitably connected, and events in one region could very easily spill over and destabilize the entire world," said Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University.

As well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, key security issues include tensions across the Taiwan Strait between Beijing and Taipei. Also under discussion are assistance for the Philippines to push back on China's efforts to seize yet more islands in the South China Sea, as well as the ongoing military operation in Gaza and how it could destabilize global trade and the international rules-based order.

"Japan is in a difficult position as it relies on sea trade so heavily, meaning that Tokyo needs to be at the forefront of efforts to influence geopolitics and prevent emergencies. And the best way of doing that is through forging strong security partnerships with like-minded nations," Nagy told DW.

Japan seeking new alliances

That can be seen in Tokyo's keenness to be party to a range of security and trade pacts, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) which brings together India, Australia, the US and Japan, as well as more prominence in a trilateral agreement between Japan, the US and South Korea, signed at Camp David in August 2023. Japan will also attend NATO's upcoming annual meeting in Washington in July.

And while the security alliance with the US is most important for Japan, it does need to be updated more than 70 years after it was first signed.

Both sides see Kishida's trip to Washington as a historic opportunity to modernize the alliance and meet the evolving challenges posed by rivals in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan has already taken steps in that direction by announcing a dramatic increase in defense spending over the coming five years that will lift total outlays to 2% of GDP by 2027. Some of that added funding will go toward advanced missiles that give Japan a counterstrike capability, the purchase of state-of-the-art F-35 fighters and a next-generation fighter jet jointly developed alongside the UK and Italy.

New bases are being constructed on Japan's most southerly islands, in some cases only a few hundred kilometers from the potential flash point of Taiwan, while this week the Maritime Self-Defense Force unveiled the upgraded JS Kaga. Launched in 2015 as a helicopter carrier, it has now been transformed into the first full aircraft carrier operated by Japan since the end of World War II.

Restructuring US military command

Kishida and Biden also announced the creation of a body to discuss the joint development, production and maintenance of defense equipment, and will initiate talks on ways to restructure the US military command in Japan to enhance operational planning and joint exercises between the two nations' forces.

A major element of the closer relationship is expected to be the stationing of a more senior US military officer in Japan with the authority to make rapid decisions instead of having to refer to US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. Washington is also understood to be considering the creation of a new US joint task force that would be attached to the US Pacific Fleet and ultimately be based in Japan.

"I do not expect much of a change in strategy, as this is much more about better communications between the US and Japan, as it all comes down to command and control capability," said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.

"Japan is working on the creation of a Joint Operations Command and the US joint task force plan are both going to require a realignment of forces," he told DW. "Arguably a bigger issue for Japan is a result of the new defense and security posture documents released last year that make all the agreements and guidelines between Japan and the US out-of-date and in need of updating."

More focus on Indo-Pacific

Hinata-Yamaguchi expects future strategy positions jointly released by Japan and the US to make "more explicit mention of the Indo-Pacific" as the primary area of security cooperation, a deliberate move by Tokyo to push the boundaries of its security concerns.

Ironing out the details of the agreement that comes out of Washington will take time, as will coordination and implementation, he said.

"I do not think whatever is agreed will lead to more confrontation with other countries in the region, as there is enough of that going on already," he said. "Japan, the US and South Korea have all made it clear through their actions that they believe the consequences of inaction would be far greater than those from taking action."

"China, North Korea and Russia will complain, of course, but they can be relied on to complain regardless of what Japan or the US do," he added. "The key will be to get other nations in Southeast Asia, the island states of the Pacific and others, that are perhaps reluctant to antagonize China, to take a more overt security posture."

Edited by: John Silk

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US President Joe Biden, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will meet in Washington on Thursday to strengthen defense and economic ties between the three nations.

While officials have said the summit is not aimed against any specific country, it comes amid escalating tensions over the South China Sea.

In recent months, the Chinese Coast Guard has repeatedly confronted resupply missions to the Philippine outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, with Chinese ships using water cannons and risky maneuvers to block the Philippine vessels.

The outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal is in the waters claimed both by China and the Philippines.

Japan has also faced incursions in disputed waters, with Tokyo accusing China of installing buoys near Senkaku, an uninhabited chain of islands under Japanese control in the East China Sea.

This week's summit could see Washington, Tokyo and Manila forge a separate security system, with less emphasis on US leadership. Traditionally, the US was seen as the hub of the wheel for its Asian allies. Although the Philippines and Japan are strategic partners, they operated largely in this US-centric framework, said Philippines-based geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill.

The Washington conference signals a change.

"This three way represents the growing desire in Manila and Tokyo and even in Washington to go beyond traditional models in order to further integrate collaborative efforts based on common goals," Gill told DW.

Manila, Tokyo growing closer

Tokyo has recently moved to deepen security cooperation with Manila, discussing a military pact that would allow troops from both countries to deploy to the partner country for drills and exercises. Just this week, Japan participated in a joint maritime exercise on the West Philippine Sea alongside the United States and Australia.

Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, describes Japan as a "quiet champion" in Asia.

"Maybe it started with the intensification in the Senkaku dispute, then continued with the [former Japanese PM Shinzo] Abe administration, but it culminated in this awareness of the Indo-Pacific, where it looks at Southeast Asia also as an area that can be supported in various means, in order to further underline certain ideals that this part of the world shares," he told DW.

To Engelbrecht, the trilateral summit is not a surprise, and shows the convergence of stronger ties between Japan and the Philippines and the US' resurging alliance.

Japan has 'the muscle'

After the trilateral summit, the US could take a position at the top of a triangle, with Japan and the Philippines at the base, working closely together, said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

He noted the ongoing cooperation between the three coast guards and a meeting between national security advisers of the three countries. 

Help from Japan could also change the equation in the dispute between China and the Philippines.

"Japan is experiencing the same kind of harassment, except Japan has big heavy coast guard ships. I'll use rugby [as a metaphor]. Southeast Asia is like a high school team, playing the pros. By sheer weight you're going to be worn down, but Japan has got the muscle," Thayer added.

Experts have pointed out that while the summit is a meeting of equals and like-minded nations, the Philippines lags way behind Japan and the United States in terms of economic development and military capabilities.

"What's going to happen is […] defense ministers [will] fine-tune whatever defense cooperation is going to go, but really work on the economic side because the investment will create more jobs for Filipinos. A strong economy will help whichever government remains in power over the years, so that the lure of China providing those millions can be set aside if Japan and the US up the ante," Thayer said.

Elections might spoil plans

The meeting between Biden, Kishida and Marcos Jr. will focus on issues such as inclusive economic growth, as well as climate cooperation and promote peace and stability in the region, said US press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Analysts have said this will likely include details on the troop access deal between Japan and the Philippines, and Japanese military equipment to boost the modernization of the Philippines' armed forces. Taiwan is also expected to be on the agenda.

At the same time, experts warned that a single summit will not solve or manage tensions on the South China Sea.

"The bigger question is [...] if this will sustain in the long run," Gill said, noting that presidential systems such as the Philippines and the US are prone to shifts in foreign policy, depending on who takes office.

The US is due for an election later this year, and the Philippines might get a new president in 2028, possibly ending Marcos' push to shore up partnerships with the EU, Australia, Japan and the US.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China last weekend against overproducing clean-energy products such as solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles (EVs) in the race to slow climate change.

During a trip to China, Yellen said the country's unfair trade practices — dumping artificially cheap products on global markets — were a threat to US businesses and jobs. Washington is considering imposing higher tariffs and closing trade loopholes if Beijing maintains its existing policy.

Chinese firms can often undercut their Western counterparts for many reasons, including cheaper labor and economies of scale. But they also benefit from very generous state incentives, which help to make foreign rivals uncompetitive.

Chinese subsidies tower over Western aid figures

"Chinese subsidies are pervasive," Rolf Langhammer, former vice president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW-Kiel), told DW. "They encompass almost all industries and are far larger than any EU or US subsidies." 

Beijing's industrial subsidies are on average three to four times higher than in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries — sometimes up to nine times as much. A report published this week by IfW-Kiel estimated that industrial subsidies amounted to €221 billion ($237 billion) or 1.73% of China's gross domestic product in 2019. Another study put annual subsidies typically at around 5% of GDP.

The IfW-Kiel report revealed how Chinese subsidies for domestic green-tech firms had increased significantly in 2022. The world's largest EV maker, BYD, received €2.1 billion, compared with €220 million just two years earlier. Support for wind turbine maker Mingyang rose from €20 million to €52 million.

In addition to the huge subsidies, the report's authors noted, Chinese producers also benefit from preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technological transfers and less domestic red tape than their foreign competitors.

China ups EV exports as global demand eases

"US and European nervousness is coming at a time when electric vehicle demand [in the West] has faltered a bit," Brad W. Setser, a global trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. "It now looks like China is going to be an even bigger exporter of electric vehicles going forward."

Last year, China sold more than 100,000 cars overseas, most of which were EVs or plug-in hybrids. The country's EV exports rose 70% in 2023 and were valued at $34.1 billion. Europe was the largest recipient of Chinese EVs, nearly 40% of electric cars exported.

In October, the European Union began a probe into whether it should impose higher tariffs on Chinese-made EVs to "offset state subsidies and to level the playing field." Brussels currently levies a 10% tariff on Chinese-made vehicles and, according to media reports, a retroactive 25% tariff could be introduced as early as July. Industry analysts have said the move would make medium-sized Chinese sedans and SUVs more expensive than their European equivalents. 

Washington already levies a 27% tariff on Chinese EVs, and is also preparing to raise them further to bolster its auto industry.

Despite concerns over tariffs and future access to Western markets, Chinese producers have vowed to increase output. The world's biggest battery maker, CATL, said it would press ahead with its aggressive expansion plans. BYD told investors recently that it had targeted a 20% sales increase in 2024.

Beijing's subsidies do trickle down

Langhammer noted that the West also benefits from the Chinese subsidies, as consumers can buy cars at a lower price while companies can access cheaper Chinese parts. Despite the threat from cheaper Chinese EVs, he said, some automakers were skeptical about the EU probe into Beijing's subsidies as firms such as Germany's Volkswagen and US EV leader Tesla receive them, too.

"They [European car producers] say they can compete with China. German automakers have a quarter of their foreign direct investment in China and also benefit from Chinese subsidies and they fear retaliation," Langhammer said, referring to possible tit-for-tat measures Beijing may levy in the event of higher EU tariffs.

Washington is concerned Chinese firms will use loopholes in US trade deals with Mexico and Canada to circumvent higher import tariffs by producing Chinese-branded EVs in the two neighboring countries. New legislation has been tabled to counter that.

Solar crisis a warning for EV sector

Europe's green-energy sector has already taken a beating from cheap Chinese imports of solar panels, which have wiped out several domestic players and prompted an EU anti-subsidy probe. Though EU countries installed record levels of solar capacity last year — 40% more than in 2022 — the vast majority of panels and parts came from China, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

"There's definitely a case that China is dumping its excess solar panels on the global market," said Setser. "The Chinese factories are producing between two and three times as many solar panels as the world currently uses," which he said was leading to "fire-sale prices."

This week, the European Union announced a separate anti-subsidy probe into China's wind turbine industry. The country seeks to dominate global supply chains and is a partner in several wind parks in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria.

In a further development, Chinese state-owned train maker CRRC was forced to withdraw from a tender in Bulgaria in February after Brussels announced a probe into the subsidies that it receives from Beijing.

China's well-worn strategy for market dominance

European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager described China's playbook for dominating green-energy sectors during a speech at Princeton University earlier this week. Noting how China first attracts foreign investment through joint ventures, she said the country was "not always above board" in the way it acquired green technological know-how. China then closed its own market to foreign firms before exporting excess capacity to the rest of the world at low, subsidized prices, she said.

Beijing has accused the US and EU of using protectionism to try to halt the country's economic advance. China is on course to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by the 2040s, and Chinese leaders have boosted investments in high-tech industries to help the country move up the value chain.

Analysts argue, however, that China can't succeed without strong and stable markets for its products, which should give US and EU leaders the edge in negotiations with Beijing.

"We should prepared to play hardball with China," Langhammer told DW. "For electric cars and green technology, the US and EU are the most important foreign markets, and the Chinese need access."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

"If I could, I'd vote for the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)," says 26-year-old Indian aeronautic engineer Robin S.

"I like to follow what's happening back home. I am Indian no matter where I live," Robin S., who lives in the German city of Würzburg, tells DW.

When asked why he supports the BJP, Robin pauses briefly before listing the Hindu nationalist party's initiatives to improve national security, digital finance, and infrastructure in India.

"Despite facing crises like COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, the BJP has controlled inflation effectively," he says. At the same time, he admits there is still some room for improvement.

Campaigning from abroad

The world's most populous country is set to start a months-long general election on April 19, and the campaign is in full swing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the face of the BJP, is hoping to secure his third term in office.

Modi and his rivals also hope to rally support in Indian communities abroad. But non-resident Indians (NRI) like Robin S. are not allowed to vote from abroad as per Indian law; they must register to vote and be physically present in India on voting day.

Many Indian citizens find traveling back to India just to vote a tall order. But many are willing to organize rallies, community meetings or religious activities such as praying for Modi's third term, says Vijay Chauthaiwale, the BJP's chief coordinator for foreign affairs.

"Communities are currently mobilizing car rallies across France, London, and ten cities in the US," Chauthaiwale tells DW. "Approximately 250 cars paraded through London, bedecked with the Indian flag and images of Prime Minister Modi."

Some NRIs are also willing to return to their home country and take part in the campaign, according to the politician.

"Most of them still have strong bonds to the motherland. They think that BJP coming to power will be good for the country, and in turn good for them," he adds.

Nationalists gain influence under Modi

During election season, the Indian diaspora carries more than just a symbolic value, according to Sanjay Ruparelia, a professor at the University of Toronto.

"Citizens of India who live in the diaspora can be a source of funding for parties," he says.

The political analyst admits that the diaspora's influence had been marginal throughout most of India's modern history. But this has changed since Modi took power in 2014, with the BJP and the 'Sangh Parivar' — a network of nationalist Hindu organizations — rallying "political and financial backing from select diaspora factions."

"Influential NRI members," Ruparelia says, "are fervent lobbyists for their host country's representatives and governments."

Moreover, "the diaspora contributes billions annually in remittances," according to the analyst. A significant portion of those funds ends up supporting "cultural initiatives sponsored by political parties."

Modi popular among Indians abroad

BJP's Chauthaiwale vehemently denies receiving significant funds from Indians abroad.

"No, the BJP does not organize funding campaigns for the NRIs," he says. "Only micro-donations are accepted in individual capacities. The biggest contributions for the BJP from the diaspora are time, energy and expertise."

Another factor is Prime Minister Modi's influence over the Indian diaspora. Ruparelia points out that Indians living abroad often gather to listen to Modi's speeches in person during the prime minister's diplomatic trips.

"His international travels, meetings with foreign leaders, and grand gatherings serve to bolster his image as a formidable statesman within and outside India," he underlines.

India 'pretty polarized'

Modi's popularity persists despite the efforts of his rivals inside India and criticism leveled at the BJP by the Western governments.

Critics say the Indian PM is pushing a Hindu nationalist agenda that threatens to erode India's secular foundation, shrink space for religious minorities, particularly Muslims, and move the country closer to a Hindu nation.

Hamburg-based Amrita Narlikar says that India's "vibrant democracy" is often subjected to unfair scrutiny in the West, and this puts the diaspora "on the defensive."

Young and educated Indian expats like Robin S. are well aware of the criticism the BJP receives in the West. He remains a BJP supporter and hopes his family, who also support the BJP, will come out to vote in India as "a lot is at stake" in the election.

Still, he now has some reservations about the ruling party.

"I've come to recognize that they're not flawless," says Robin S. "Since the BJP, there has been a rise in extremist sentiments, both religious and right-wing. Our society right now is pretty polarized."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

On March 8, Chinacanceled a shipment of 240,000 metric tons of US soft red winter wheat. On March 15, another batch, this time 264,000 tons, was also canceled. US exporters were left with the option to either hold on to the half a million tons or find alternative buyers.

Australian wheat deliveries were also affected in March, as Chinese importers either canceled or postponed around 1 million tons of Australian wheat shipments to the second quarter.

Andrew Whitelaw, an agricultural consultant with market analysis service Episode 3 in Canberra, Australia, referred to the cancellation of cargoes as "a bearish indicator."

"Whether they are doing it to buy again cheaper or because there's less demand, it is still a bearish view on the market," he told the news agency Bloomberg.

The fact that over half a million tons of US wheat was canceled has sparked much discussion among grain traders.

According to data from the US Department of Agriculture dating back to 1999, it was the largest canceled quantity to date.

"Those cancellations show that China can get wheat cheaper from others," said Ben Buckner, chief grains analyst for Chicago-based AgResource Co, in an interview with Bloomberg.

The days of continuously rising prices for grains and other agricultural commodities seem to be over, at least for now.

According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture, as of March 28 corn inventories had risen by 13% and soybean inventories by 9%. Wheat inventories saw the highest increase, at 16%.

Fair weather conditions for wheat

In addition to higher inventories, an improvement in weather conditions has also contributed to lower prices, explained Thorsten Tiedemann, CEO of Grain AG in Hamburg, Germany.

"In most regions, we had more than sufficient water supply and thus good conditions for good harvests," he told DW, adding that the winter weather was quite different from last year when some regions experienced prolonged dry periods and other negative factors such as frost.

Tiedemann thinks the situation is generally more relaxed than it was a year ago. "We have an overall decent corn harvest. We also have an ample supply of soybeans and soybean meal. And Argentina and Brazil will harvest a decent crop in the coming weeks," he said.

Moreover, Russia continues to be capable of exporting millions of tons of wheat and will likely reach a market share of approximately 29% in the global wheat market for the fiscal year 2024/25, according to Tiedemann.

Prospects of bumper harvests

If there are no unexpected adverse weather events, China could achieve a larger and higher-quality wheat harvest this year, according to reports from market watchdog S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The commodity experts have based their assumption on data from the Chinese meteorological agency from early March, which said that snowfall between January and February in the country's key winter wheat-growing regions, Jianghuai and Jiangnan, increased soil moisture and that most plants have safely passed through the winter dormancy.

Additionally, only minimal frost damage is expected in parts of those regions, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported, adding that the crop's growth stage is "largely similar to or better than the same period last year."

But Hamburg grain expert Tiedemann thinks "one must be cautious when looking at the wheat balance for the coming year," and warned against excessive optimism for the global wheat supply.

"I assume that compared to previous years, we will see a reduction in inventories in the exporting countries in 2024/25. This is due in part to smaller crop expectations and a slightly increasing demand due to lower prices," he said.

Tiedemann believes prices could "explosively rise again" if there are crop failures or adverse weather events. As an example, he mentioned a poor harvest in France where, for instance, drought could hit again in May or June.

"Then I believe the market could react extremely nervously again because we would be heading toward lower wheat stocks even with average yield expectations. The situation is still comfortable now, but that may not remain the case," he said.

This article was originally written in German.

Pakistan announced at the end of March that it was planning to ask the United States to relax possible sanctions around a natural gas pipeline project from neighboring Iran.

Islamabad wants to soon start work on the long-planned project, known as the "Peace Pipeline."

Both sides agreed to build the pipeline in 2009, but it has since faced delays and funding challenges. 

Iran is now threatening Pakistan with legal action if it fails to build the Pakistani section of the pipeline.

"Pakistan wants to avoid a possible legal dispute with Iran in international courts and a fine of $18 billion (€16.6 billion)," Sabena Siddiqi, a Pakistani journalist specializing in foreign policy issues, told DW.

"Tehran has set September 2024 as a deadline for Islamabad to finish the construction of the pipeline on the Pakistani side," she said. "The Pakistani section of the pipeline is about 780 kilometers long [484 miles]."

Plans thwarted by US sanctions

Iran has been striving to build the pipeline since the 1990s. It was originally intended to transport Iranian gas all the way to India. However, New Delhi withdrew from the project due to US sanctions against Iran over its contentious nuclear program.

Pakistan and Iran signed a 25-year supply deal in 2009, and Tehran completed building the over 900-kilometer-long Iranian section of the pipeline 10 years ago. But construction on the Pakistani side has been held up, drawing Iranian consternation.

Islamabad has now announced its intention to soon begin constructing the first 80 kilometers of the pipeline link from the Iranian border to the Pakistani port city of Gwadar, in a bid to avoid a potential Iranian lawsuit for breach of contract.

But following the Pakistani announcement, the US said it did not support the project from going forward. Washington also warned about the risk of sanctions in doing business with Tehran.

"We do not support the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project," said the US State Department.

"We always advise everyone that doing business with Iran runs the risk of touching upon and coming in contact with our sanctions, and would advise everyone to consider that very carefully," a State Department spokesperson told reporters on March 26.

Pakistan is currently worried about having to pay possible financial compensation amounting to billions of dollars for delays in the construction of its section of the pipeline, said Umud Shokri, a Washington-based energy expert.

"Islamabad is aware that Iran is struggling with natural gas shortages, and that it is not in a position to export gas to Pakistan due to dilapidated infrastructure," he said.

Can Iran produce enough gas?

Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves, behind only Russia. Still, the country confronts gas shortages almost every winter, forcing the government to ration supplies.

Excessive and inefficient consumption of subsidized natural gas, by both households as well as industry, lies at the root of the problem.

According to the latest information from the Energy Institute's "Statistical Review of World Energy," Iran ranked fourth on the list of countries with the highest gas consumption in the world in 2022, behind the United States, Russia and China.

"Due to the US sanctions, Iran lacks access to key technologies," said Shokri. "The tech capabilities of domestic companies are not sufficient to increase the production capacity in such a way that Iran could actually export natural gas to Pakistan. Unless Iran wants to supply Russian gas to Pakistan."

Legal options remain limited

In response to the US sanctions, Tehran is seeking closer cooperation with Moscow. In July 2022, the Russian energy company Gazprom signed a cooperation agreement worth $40 billion with the National Iranian Oil Company, NIOC. According to the deal, Gazprom was to support NIOC in the development of two gas and six oil fields.

Observers have said, however, that Iran would not earn much if it were to just supply Russian gas to Pakistan through its territory.

Siddiqi, the Pakistani journalist, meanwhile believes Iran's chances of being successful in a legal battle against Pakistan appear slim.

Tehran could take its case to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law, based in Vienna, but, said Siddiqi, "given the unstable regional situation, the war in Gaza and Iran's role in some crises, it is highly unlikely that Washington would allow Iran to successfully pursue its case."

She added: "Instead, the US could try to offer Pakistan alternative options for its energy security."

This article was originally written in German.

A record number of South Koreans have taken advantage of early voting ahead of parliamentary elections on Wednesday, underlining the public's investment in a political landscape that analysts suggest is more fractured and polarized than in many decades.

Government data shows that 31.28% of the 44.28 million eligible voters cast their votes on Friday or Saturday, with no previous early voting period in South Korea reaching the 30% threshold. It's not clear whether these early voters will help President Yoon Suk Yeol and his People Power Party or his Democratic Party adversary, Lee Jae-myung in the upcoming polls.

The remaining voters will have a chance to cast their ballot on Wednesday, with 300 seats up for grabs. Analysts have suggested there are a handful of issues that have galvanized the public.

"It can be narrowed down to two key issues; the state of the economy and the personal vendetta between Yoon and (Leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party) Cho Kuk," Lee Sang Sin, a political science expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told DW.

He said the political intrigue and depth of dislike between Yoon and Cho is worthy of a Shakespeare drama and can be traced back to when Yoon was head of the national prosecution during the previous Democratic Party government of President Moon Jae-in.

Moon appointed Cho as his justice minister in September 2019, but he remained in the post for just 35 days after a series of accusations quickly surfaced.

Scandal and vendetta

Claims of repeated cases of plagiarism from Cho's university days were brought up, along with accusations that he had failed to pay taxes and associated legal costs. Cho's younger brother was charged with embezzlement and bribery in connection with investments in a company that won computer network contracts.

Further digging by prosecutors determined that Cho and his wife, Chung Kyung Shim, had falsified academic achievements of their daughter, Cho Min, to help her obtain places at top universities and a leading medical school.

Cho was fired from the law faculty of Seoul National University, while Chung Kyung Shim was sentenced to four years in prison and fined 638 million Korean won (€435,172/$471,226).

Far from being cowed, however, Cho has created the new Rebuilding Korea Party and is seeking revenge on the man who punished him and his family, said Lee Sang Sin. "Cho lost his job, his status and his honor and still insists that Yoon carried out a coup d'etat against him and his family — and now he is seeking revenge."

Economic and security concerns dominate voters' concerns

Away from vendettas and political scandals, the greatest source of concern for many Koreans are rising prices, said Ms. Lee, who works for a human rights NGO in Seoul and requested that she only be identified by her family name.

"Everyone that I speak to is worried about economic stability and increasing prices for even the basics, such as food," she told DW. "Whenever I go shopping at the supermarket, I'm always surprised at the price and I don't go to restaurants nearly as much as I used to."

Lee is also dismayed at the worsening political polarization within society. "My family always used to talk about politics among ourselves, but we cannot do that anymore because it always leads to bad arguments," she said.

For Song Young Chae, a conservative-leaning academic, the priority should be national security in the face of a heavily armed and unpredictable neighbor in North Korea and a similarly threatening near-neighbor in China. And he fears another left-wing government will weaken the nation's defenses.

"Implicitly or explicitly, those who have supported North Korea and China have systematically organized and incited the public to pursue a strategy aimed at socialization of the Korean Peninsula and unification based on North Korean rule," he said.

"Many people of my generation are still supportive of a Korean Peninsula unification strategy that is centered around socialism," he added. "People who are concerned about this, like me, or those who oppose a unification plan for the peninsula under socialist principles tend to support a strong right-wing agenda in reaction to the agenda of leftist politicians."

With just days before polling, Lee Sang Sin said the indications are that the opposition Democratic Party will emerge with a solid majority and will reinforce its control of the legislature by partnering with Cho Kuk's new party, leaving President Yoon as a lame duck for the remaining three years of his single five-year term.

'Decisive blow' to Yoon

"I think Yoon's party is going to do badly and that will be a decisive blow to his government," said Lee Sang Sin, estimating that the opposition forces could very well win "a historic" 200 of the 300 seats available.

"With a large majority, there will be little that Yoon can achieve, and we may even see the opposition attempt to remove Yoon from office before his term is up," he said. "This vendetta is deeply personal, and they will try to leverage his unpopularity and the state of the economy."

If the People Power Party does suffer a devastating defeat on Wednesday and Yoon is hobbled for the next three years, Lee said, the party may move to distance itself from his policies and encourage him to step down to rebuild support ahead of the next election.

Edited by: Shamil Shams