China's top annual economic meeting concluded yesterday, with leader Xi Jinping announcing fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting growth, including taking steps towards interest rate cuts and more government borrowing.

China has been grappling with economic slowdowns and continued weak domestic consumer demand in recent years, in part brought on by the collapse of the real estate market where many middle-class Chinese have stored wealth.

According to research by Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, China's real GDP growth is predicted to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024.

Xi said China is aiming for a "more proactive" fiscal policy and a "moderately loose" monetary policy for next year.

Lizzi C. Lee, a fellow on Chinese Economy at the Asia Society, a New York-based think tank, told DW that this year's "Central Economic Work Conference," conveys an "unusually urgent" signal.

In 2025, China will face fresh economic headwinds, with US President-elect Donald Trump entering office in January pledging to slap high tariffs on Chinese exports.

China's growth strategy

According China's state-run Xinhua News Agency, Xi emphasized at the conference that a key task for next year is to "vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand."

Also, authorities will increase the "fiscal deficit rate, expand the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds" and adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates to ensure ample liquidity.

This marks a huge shift in China's monetary policy. Since the end of 2010, Beijing has stuck mostly to a so-called "prudent" approach to economic policy.

Wang Guochen, a scholar at Taiwan's Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, told DW the easing means that authorities will start printing more money while purchasing government bonds on a larger scale next year.

In September, the People's Bank of China launched the largest economic stimulus measures since the COVID-19 pandemic, releasing about 1 trillion yuan into the banking system.

In November, the finance ministry introduced a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt financing plan to alleviate pressure on local governments.

Lee from the Asia Society said these measures show that China's leadership is willing to do more, but "the real test will come down to how much Beijing actually pushes through," as details and sizes of the planned additional stimulus remain scarce.

"Without greater clarity on magnitude and concrete reforms to back it up, there's a risk these measures will lift sentiment only temporarily, leaving the long-term challenges unresolved," she said.

Wang also warned that China has effectively fallen into a "liquidity trap" in recent years. Despite the loosening of monetary policy and decreased interest rates, people still prefer saving to spending because they are pessimistic about the future.

Real estate markets key to boosting growth

While the economic meetings chart the course for next year, actual growth targets and specific guidelines will only be announced in the following spring after the rubber-stamp parliamentary meeting.

Beijing set the GDP growth target for 2024 at 5%. Based on official data from the first three quarters, achieving this goal remains challenging this year. Yet, economists predict that the Chinese government may set the same target for 2025.

"While 5% is not out of reach, achieving it will demand decisive action, especially on property stabilization … given that housing accounts for about 20% of GDP and represents 70% of household wealth," Lee said.

Additionally, the real estate market involves a wide range of upstream and downstream industries. When the market is sluggish, it leads to widespread economic downturns and even affects local government finances.

At the economic meetings, Beijing pledged to "stabilize the real estate and stock markets" next year and "continue to make efforts to halt the decline and stabilize the real estate market."

However, Wang believes that the key to stabilizing the real estate market is for the Chinese government to purchase local inventory housing.

In doing so, "at least everyone feels that the bottom line of the real estate crash has been reached," he said, and it could potentially restore confidence in the market.

"It's clear that issuing more special government bonds won't improve the overall economic situation," Wang argues. "The economy is in recession, middle-class wages are shrinking ... even if housing prices drop, they still can't afford the mortgage."

Beijing 'refining a toolkit' to counter Trump's tariffs

Incoming President Trump has threatened Chinese imports to the US with tariffs of at least 60%.

Wang said that the institution he works for calculated estimates from about 13 institutional investors, predicting that with a 60% tariff imposed by the US, China's economic growth rate could drop to 3%, compared to a previous prediction of 4.5%.

Research from Goldman Sachs predicts Trump will impose a lower 20 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, which would "weigh on China's real GDP by 0.7 percentage points in 2025."

While China's core leadership did not directly mention the US-China trade war during the conference, they emphasized that "the adverse effects brought by changes in the current external environment are deepening."

During a Tuesday meeting with several international economic organization leaders in Beijing, Xi said that "there will be no winners" in tariff wars.

Beijing's current stance in response to Trump's potential tariff increases is one of "watchful preparation" rather than outright confrontation, Lee points out.

"At the same time, China is quietly refining a toolkit to respond if tensions escalate. Cybersecurity investigations, tightened export controls, and regulatory scrutiny of foreign firms are all on the table," Lee added.

China is also actively pursuing strategies to bolster domestic production in face of the ongoing tech war with the US, particularly in the semiconductor sector. "Tackling key core technologies" was highlighted at this year's conference.

But Wang said pursuing technological independence in semiconductor will require significant investment without any guarantees of success. Moreover, prioritizing these industries could stifle the growth of the service sector. As a result, "technological independence and expanding domestic demand are bound to clash."

DW correspondent Yu-Chun Chou contributed to this article

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

Last month, the National Assembly (NA) of Vietnam overwhelmingly passed a new data law, which aims to streamline digital administration from local and central authorities and support socio-economic development.

However, there are concerns over how data will be controlled. Two major projects planned under the law include a national data center to be run by the Ministry of Public Security, and a data exchange platform for data-related products and services.

It is unclear who will provide the data exchange platform services, or which data will be exchanged. However national defense, security, international affairs, state secrets, and "unconsented" data are barred.

Vietnam's authoritarian government can apply loose definitions to these categories, raising concerns over how data will be used. 

Communist-ruled Vietnam has strengthened its internet rules in recent years. It implemented cybersecurity laws in 2019, national guidelines for social media behavior in 2022 and just recently updating rules of management, provision and use of Internet services and online information.

Concerns of US tech companies

In response to a draft of the data law released for public analysis earlier this year, US tech companies collectively expressed their concerns last month.

"Vietnam holds great promise as a growing market for digital services in the Asia-Pacific region, and its extensive cross-border service commitments, embedded in binding trade rules, is key to that growth," Jonathan McHale, Vice President of Digital Trade from The Computer & Communications Industry Association (CCIA) said in a statement.

He added that the recent data policies, which hinder data processing among stakeholders, "harm both foreign companies and the local economy that flourishes with outside participation." 

Specifically addressed were regulations on the cross-border data transfers included in the draft law.

This requires all data classified as core data to receive approval from competent authorities prior to being shared and transferred outside of Vietnam.

"A disproportionate implementation of restrictions around important and core data is likely to undermine Vietnam's efforts to attract foreign investment, including in strategic sectors such as the semiconductor industry," the statement said. 

The US tech firms were also "extremely concerned" about broad powers of Vietnam's authoritarian government, which demands that the private sector supply particular data for "special cases" related to "national interest" and "public interest."

Most NA delegates called for clarity on a further revision of the data law by July 2025.

Lawmakers have tasked the Vietnamese government with issuing detailed guiding decrees, ensuring that regulations remain aligned with practical applications and comply with the demands of digital transformation.

They identified several ambiguous aspects that could significantly influence Vietnam's efforts to promote globalization and advance digital transformation.

Vietnam emerging as a tech destination

Google recently announced it is considering the construction of a large data center in Vietnam.

Last week, Google also confirmed it would open its Vietnam office in 2025 to improve on its advertising base and help with Vietnam's digital transformation.

SpaceX has announced plans to invest $1.5 billion to improve internet access for all Vietnamese.

Last week, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and President and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang were seen together after the government and the tech company signed a cooperation agreement to establish an artificial intelligence (AI) data center and research and development hub in Vietnam.

Huang described Vietnam as Nvidia's "second home." Shortly thereafter, Google made an official announcement regarding the launch of Google Vietnam. 

Marc Woo, Google's managing director for Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific region, recently posted on X about the potential Vietnam has as a digital destination.

"The right place at the right time — while Vietnam's digital economy is on track to a potential $200B [billlion] by 2030, I continue to be in awe with the dynamic landscape of SEA and Vietnam as trends and innovation continue to evolve at a rapid pace."

By 2025, Vietnam is striving to become one of the 70 leading e-government countries, with at least 80% of administrative operations performed online. 

However, conflict between the interests of the authoritarian state and the big tech companies, which want as little regulation as possible, will continue.

Bich Tran, a postdoctoral fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, wrote in a recent study that Vietnam recently established digital partnerships with Singapore and Indonesia to enhance the digital economy and infrastructure.

"The United States has also pledged support for Vietnam's efforts in developing high-quality digital infrastructure. These partnerships will provide Vietnam with access to expertise, technology, and financial resources," noted Tran.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

At the age of 85, Ikuko Arai finally retired on November 30. She says she is happy to step back from her role at a non-profit organization in the capital Tokyo, but she is also more than a little worried.

Arai lives alone since her husband died 16 years ago, and she fears that stopping work is going to leave her isolated from Japanese society — and possibly lead to a "lonely death."

It is a common refrain in a country with a rapidly aging population. A report published by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security research in late November concluded that single-person households will account for 44.3% of the nationwide total by 2050. The figure rises to 54.1% in Tokyo.

The number of people aged 65 or older living alone is projected to rise to 10.83 million by 2050, a 1.5-fold increase from the 2020 figure.

Anxiety of being alone

"The anxiety of being alone is immense," Arai told DW. "I could list all the worries that I have, but I'll do my best for as long as I am well.

"Until now, I have not felt socially isolated because of my work, and I was always busy, but now I have retired, and I will no longer have that to occupy me, so this is my moment of truth," she said.

"I plan to try to implement strategies so I can avoid becoming isolated."

After 32 years working for the Women's Association for a Better Aging Society (WABAS), where she eventually rose to become secretary general, Arai has a firm understanding of the challenges facing older people in Japan's fast-paced society.

"We founded the association in 1983 with a mission of rescuing wives from constantly having to provide nursing care for the elderly, to promote the socialization of nursing care and to make Japanese society a better place for the elderly to live," she said.

"In our society, it has long been assumed that caring for elderly parents is the role of the oldest son and his wife and that because men work, then his wife has to alter her career and life plans to look after the parents," she added.

"But that has changed dramatically," Arai said.

"We are living in an era in which old people no longer live with their children and grandchildren in one home, and they live by themselves. Many, especially women, want their independence and say they can get by on their pensions and savings, but there are obvious downsides."

Social isolation is just one of the challenges facing older people when their children do not live nearby.

They may experience financial difficulties, particularly when their health declines.

Arai says there is growing concern among the elderly community over organized criminal groups that actively target old people who live alone. The country has seen a spate of break-ins, including cases in which old people were injured or even killed by intruders.

Safer society

"We want the government to create a society that is safe for old people once more," Arai said. "We feel it is time to increase the number of community watchdog groups and to find ways to help the elderly to create new bonds in their neighborhoods."

The challenges for elderly people in modern-day Japan are immense, agrees Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of the economics of aging at Tohoku University.

He said more needs to be done to ensure that old people don't spend their final days alone and suffer "kodokushi," the Japanese term that translates as lonely death.

"The average longevity of Japanese people is well into their 80s now and, in the future, it may come close to even 100 years old, but we are seeing more physical and mental health problems in these older people, which is adding stresses to the healthcare system," he told DW.

"Social isolation is now so much of a problem in urban areas of the country, but more needs to be done to increase communication between older people in rural regions," Yoshida said.

He pointed to international studies that have detected a link between elderly people who live alone suffering from loneliness, falling self-esteem and worsening health problems.

Japan is getting old 

"To cope with this super-aging society, the government needs to set up networks that allow people to communicate with each other more easily and to arrange shared social activities," he said.

"That will help the physical and mental health of this generation and reduce the financial burden of taking care of people because they are healthier and happier," he added.

Like Arai, Yoshida believes that women are the solution to Japan's aging society. He advocates for not obliging women of working age to become carers for older relatives as this strips them of a career, greater incomes and spending power, which would in turn help boost consumption and the overall economy.

"We need more women in the workforce to improve overall productivity in the economy, and that will inevitably mean that men need to help out more around the home," he added.

Edited by: Shamil Shams

The recent deaths of six travelers by methanol poisoning in Laos has highlighted the issue of moonshine alcohol in Southeast Asia's tourist hotspots.

The victims, from Australia, the UK, Denmark and the US, and aged between 19 and 28 years old, were staying at a hostel in the popular tourist town of Vang Vieng in November.

The six were are said to have consumed free vodka shots at Nana's Backpackers Hostel, which is not uncommon in party hostels around Southeast Asia. The hostel manager has denied any wrongdoing, but he and seven of his staff were arrested and are being investigated.

There were several others who complained of being unwell since, but no other deaths have occurred in connection with the incident.

Dr. Chenery Ann Lim, project manager from the methanol poisoning initiative at Doctors without Borders (MSF), warned the deaths in Laos are only the "tip of the iceberg" in an interview with Australian media in November.

"We don't really hear a lot of what is actually happening on the ground ... a lot of the (people) who are consuming (the drinks) are not tourists, but also the local population," she said.

The Laos government has since banned the sale and consumption of the liquor brand Tiger Vodka and Tiger Whisky.

Laos tourism reputation takes a blow

Laos is one of Southeast Asia's poorest countries, and its economy is struggling. The country has an external debt of $13.8 billion dollars, amounting to 108% of the country's GDP. 

Laos is heavily reliant on agriculture and industry, with an estimated that 85% of the population employed in agriculture.

But the country hopes that tourism might be provide an economic lifeline.

Laos has welcomed 5 million visitors already in 2024, generating $1 billion in revenue and surpassing initial forecasts.

Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone has credited the increase of arrivals to the new Laos-China Railway connection, which links to tourist hotspots like Vang Vieng and Luang Prabang.

However, David Ormsby, a tourism consultant, told DW Laos needs to increase its structural capabilities to cope with growing demand.

"A focus on improving services and infrastructure would be a step in the right direction," he told DW.

"Increasing mass tourism may put increased strain on the infrastructure and has the potential to damage the natural and cultural beauty that it seeks to showcase," he added.

Backpackers not expected to stay away 

The recent deaths only add to Vang Vieng's checkered past, after 27 tourists died from drowning while tubing in the Nam Song River in 2011.

"It may have a short-term impact on the backpacker market. Laos needs to prove that this cannot happen again to rebuild trust. Longer term I don't see backpackers staying away in large numbers, but behaviors will change. Those free-shot parties will be viewed very cautiously," Gary Bowerman, a Kuala Lumpur-based tourism analyst, told DW.

"More broadly, this should concern governments across Southeast Asia, as counterfeit liquor is widespread and travelers will ask more questions than before about the origin of their drinks," he added.

Methanol poisoning in Southeast Asia

According to MSF, methanol poisoning is more common in Southeast Asia than anywhere in the world.

Statistics show that methanol outbreaks are common in Cambodia, the Philippines and Vietnam. But Indonesia leads the way with most methanol-related incidents.

Professor Ady Wirawan, from at the Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, at Bali's Udayana University in Indonesia, told DW that methanol poisoning is a "serious issue in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, where it poses significant health, social and economic risks."

"This problem is most prevalent in unregulated alcohol markets, where methanol is sometimes added intentionally or contaminates beverages during unsafe or substandard production. Both locals and tourists are at risk, especially when consuming cheap or homemade alcohol,” he added.

Methanol is similar to ethanol, the chemical that makes a drink alcoholic. Illegal bootleggers add methanol because it's a cheaper alternative.

But its consumption can be deadly to humans, with fatality rates between 20-40 % depending on the concentration level.

In Muslim-majority Indonesia, there are concerns that its strict alcohol laws may drive people to buying and consuming cheap, unregulated booze.

Indonesia's legal drinking age is 21, but public consumption is banned in many places. There is also a high import tax on alcohol, and it is commonly available only in tourist destinations, including Bali and Jakarta.

"In Indonesia, methanol use in beverages is prohibited, and there are regulations in place for licensed alcohol producers to ensure safety and quality. However, enforcing these regulations is challenging due to the widespread informal market and limited monitoring resources," Professor Ady said.

"In Bali, efforts to address this issue have included regular inspections of bars and restaurants to prevent the sale of tainted alcohol, public awareness campaigns advising tourists and locals to avoid unregulated alcohol, equipping hospitals with antidotes like ethanol for treating methanol poisoning, as well as training health-care providers to respond effectively," he added.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

In the week since South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's abortive declaration of martial law, Pyongyang has been uncharacteristically silent.

Normally, any hints of public dissent aimed at the government in the South are quickly seized upon by North Korean state media as evidence of the corruption and incompetence that blights the South's democratic system and its leaders.

Between Yoon's declaration of martial law on the evening of December 3 and early this week, however, the North ignored the opportunity to mock its neighbor and ideological rival and to emphasize the superiority of North Korean-style socialism.

Instead, coverage by the state-run Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) has focused on more mundane domestic issues, such as the opening of a condiments factory and a youth group taking part in an "oath-taking meeting.”

Analysts admit they were puzzled at the North's immediate failure to get in some propaganda jabs, particularly the chance to target Yoon, who has taken a far firmer line against the North than his more liberal predecessor.

Yoon's martial law declaration claimed he was being forced to act due to "anti-state" and "North Korean communist forces" within the ranks of his domestic political opposition.

Why did the North stay quiet?

Some have suggested that the regime in Pyongyang opted not to show footage of the South Korean public protesting en masse against the government out of concern that it might encourage the unhappy citizens of North Korea to try something similar.

Others believe the North feared that unrest in the South might result in the under-pressure South Korean government attempting to focus the public's attention elsewhere and provoke a security incident involving the North. In preparation, Pyongyang has focused all its energies on preparing for some sort of confrontation.

Another theory for North Korea's silence is rooted in Pyongyang's announcement in late 2023 that it was altering its constitution to reflect its position that the South was now seen as a "belligerent state" and that relations would henceforth be between "two hostile states." This was a step change from looking at the two Koreas as a single homogenous people that would one day be reunited.

Framed this way, Pyongyang apparently felt that it did not need to comment on the South's political crisis, said Andrei Lankov, a Russian-born professor of history and international relations at Seoul's Kookmin University.

"Almost every weekend since Yoon has been in power, there have been large demonstrations in Seoul against his government," he told DW. "And every time there was a rally, the North Korean media would report on it. That did not happen after the protests after he declared martial law, and I think that was partly because the North wanted to see what was going to happen."

South Korea 'just another country'

"But there has also been a gradual reduction in the amount of coverage the North provides to its people in state media because they do not want to focus their attention on the South, they want to position the South as 'just another' country," Lankov said.

Goo Gap-woo, a professor of diplomacy at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, agrees Pyongyang is actively pursuing a policy of distancing itself from any form of contact with its southern neighbor.

"The North is usually very quick to mention the 'puppet South Korean regime' and so on whenever there is social unrest, and I was surprised that they said nothing about the demonstrations this time," he told DW. "I can only think that this is more evidence that they do not want to have anything to do with the South after Kim Jong Un's 'two Koreas' declaration last year.

"In particular they do not want to become involved in any conflict on the Korean Peninsula," he added, which might be militarily testing given the amount of munitions and troops that the North has contributed to the Russian forces currently fighting in Ukraine.

Goo also played down suggestions that the North delayed releasing news of the turmoil in the South out of concern that it could convince some of Kim Jong Un's citizens to similarly resist their leaders.

"I do not think the government there consider the impact of reports about events in the South on the North," he said. "I think it is more likely that Pyongyang is more focused on trying to separate and distance itself from the South."

North Korea breaks silence

Ultimately, however, the North apparently realized it could not remain silent. On Wednesday, KCNA reported the events in South Korea, with its usual invective tone. 

"The shocking incident of the puppet Yoon Suk Yeol regime [...] suddenly declaring martial law and unhesitatingly wielding the guns and knives of its fascist dictatorship wrought havoc across South Korea," said a report.

The report described the South Korean military as a "gangster organization," claiming Yoon's actions were "a disaster" and that the South Korean public was calling for his immediate impeachment and punishment.

The report was accompanied by around 20 photos, although the images did not show South Korean civilians resisting the military outside the parliament.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

When Stefan Schreiber decided to invest in a carbon emission reduction project with a Chinese company, he was convinced he was dealing with a trustworthy business partner. "They made a very professional impression: the way they presented themselves, the way they communicated," he said. 

DW met Schreiber in a meeting room at his company's plant in Schwedt, a town near Berlin. The office overlooked huge pipes and tanks, and trucks trundled past. Schreiber is a board member of Verbio, a German biofuel producer that also trades carbon certificates. 

In essence, carbon credits are generated by projects that save or remove greenhouse gas emissions. To fulfill their climate targets, companies can either reduce emissions in their own production or activities — or buy these credits from others. These carbon credits can then be resold to other companies. 

A risk-free deal?

In 2023, Verbio acquired the rights to carbon credits from an oilfield in China. It had been approved as a carbon-saving project by German authorities.  All Verbio's management had to do was sign a contract and transfer the money for the carbon credits. 

Then Verbio resold the credits on the German carbon market. 

A risk-free deal, Schreiber thought. Except that, it turned out to be too good to be true. Today, Schreiber is convinced that the project his company paid for was part of a billion-euro fraud. 

Together with German public broadcaster ZDF, DW's investigative unit dug into this alleged fraud, sifted through hundreds of auditing reports, compared satellite images and talked to industry insiders. 

What we found was likely a criminal plot that has generated carbon credits worth roughly €1 billion ($1.05 billion) since its implementation in 2020 until it was shut down this year. Dozens of projects in China were approved in Germany, although they did not meet the legal requirements of a specialized carbon scheme set up for the fossil fuel industry. 

Tailor-made for the oil industry

While projects could be set up in nearly any country in the world, the carbon credits were issued by the German Environment Agency and could only be used to meet the climate targets of oil companies in Germany.  

Many of the industry's big players, we found, invested in the credits, including Shell , Exxon, Total and BP. But Verbio's Schreiber was the only investor willing to talk to us. 

The project Schreiber purchased credits from was supposed to save more than 120.000 tons of carbon by collecting gas from an oil extraction site in China's Xinjiang Region. The gas would have otherwise been released into the atmosphere or flared – both of which are a major contributor to global warming.

That's why extraction — and not just consumption — of fossil fuels is a major source of carbon emissions. The German government designed its carbon scheme to incentivize companies needing to reduce their emissions to channel funds to projects abroad to help them invest in carbon-saving facilities or processes. 

Only new projects were eligible for the scheme. 

'Should never have been approved'

But, DW and ZDF found that preexisting projects were, in fact, approved. Such was the case with Verbio's project. 

According to the documents submitted to the German authorities, construction started in September 2020. Satellite images of the site, however, clearly show that the facility had already been built in 2019, including the huge gas tanks referenced as new in the reports. 

"This project should never have been approved," said Axel Michaelowa, a leading expert in carbon trading at the University of Zurich.   

And yet, it was. By officials who never actually visited the site: The German Environment Agency, which issues the credits, does not inspect them. 

"We have three employees who deal with these projects," Dirk Messner, the agency's president, told us.  He said those employees don't have the capacity to review all the projects.

Instead, the work is outsourced to private auditing companies. The approval is based on the paperwork provided by these companies. It's a relatively common procedure in carbon certification. But this time, it provided the opportunity for a billion-euro fraud.  

In total, the German Environment Agency approved 66 projects in China. Project documents obtained by DW allowed us to identify at least 16 projects that were, in all likelihood, fraudulent. 

Almost all of them followed a similar pattern: An existing installation was submitted as if it were new. 

At first glance, they all seem to have been submitted by different companies. But, we found that almost all seem to have close links to one company: Beijing Karbon.

That company is a consultancy specializing in carbon reduction and certification. According to its website, it provides services to businesses that want to reduce their carbon footprint and helps Chinese firms invest abroad. 

An opaque company network

Its founder held influential positions within the energy sector: In the 1990s, she was in charge of energy conservation at China's National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful government commission that steers economic policies. Later, she held a leading position in a state-owned enterprise that invests in energy conservation before going on to set up her own business together with her son and others. 

We cannot say which, if any, role her previous positions may have played in setting up and expanding her company. 

Back in his office in Schwedt, Schreiber had no reason to doubt his new partners. The documentation he received "looked wonderful."

After learning of the fraud allegations, he thinks the Chinese company must have had collaborators. "There must have been people in Germany who knew this system inside out," he said. "Otherwise, it would not have been possible in this form, also with this level of professionalism."

Allegations of collusion

Many within the industry think these collaborators may have been two prestigious auditing companies. A letter by insiders of the Chinese carbon market sent to Germany's Environment Agency accused the projects' auditors of having "colluded with Beijing Karbon." 

Just two companies audited the majority of the projects: Müller-BBM Cert and Verico SCE, two specialized environmental certification companies. 

Verico's executive chairman is considered by many to be a leading expert in the world of carbon certification. For more than a decade, he represented auditing companies to UN bodies.

A third company, TÜV Rheinland, audited two likely fraudulent projects.

The fact that so many projects seemed to come from Beijing Karbon and were almost all audited by the same auditing companies "should have immediately set off alarm bells," Michaelowa said.

All three companies were recently searched by the Berlin prosecutor's office and are being investigated for joint commercial fraud, as a spokesperson of the office told DW and ZDF. None of the companies have admitted to any intentional wrongdoing.

"We have no reason to doubt our auditing work, nor the work of our auditors," Verico SCE replied to our request for comment.

Müller-BBM Cert said it was sure that "no criminal offense has been committed by employees of our company." 

TÜV Rheinland said it was investigating and asked for "understanding that we will share the investigation results with the authorities first and only then with the public." 

'Worst case scenario'

The allegations of fraud against these well-known auditing companies have shaken up the industry.

"If it turns out that the auditors were part of that fraud, this would be the worst-case scenario," Dirk Messner, the Environment Agency's president, told DW.

His agency has placed 45 projects under suspicion, closed the program to new applications and is working to rescind as many of the credits as possible. 

Beijing Karbon did not reply to our requests for comment.

Editing: Naomi Conrad and Carolyn Thompson

Fact-Checking: Carolyn Thompson

Legal support: Florian Wagenknecht

Yuchen Li contributed research to this story

When Maria Zadneprovskaya first saw the Aral Sea in 2021, she was overcome by a raw, deep sadness. "It felt like a real catastrophe," says the environmental expert, walking across the dried seabed, shells crunching underfoot. The water here was once almost 16 meters deep (52 feet) and full of big, mustachioed Eurasian carp.

Once the world's fourth-largest lake, much of the salty Aral had largely disappeared by the late 1970s, as the rivers feeding it were diverted for irrigation in the Soviet era to water cotton and rice fields.

By 2010, the surface area had shrunk by more than 50,000 square kilometers (19,000 square miles).

The impact on the environment has been devastating. Dramatically rising salinity levels have led to the disappearance of many of the more than 30 species of fish caught for commercial purposes.

Now marked by sparse vegetation, violent sandstorms, summer temperatures of up to 42.7 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit), and a landscape scarred by white salt streaks, the area has become known as Aralkum. It's one of the world's youngest deserts, already covering an area of 62,000 square kilometers. And it's still growing. 

In her role as deputy manager of the Aral Sea Environmental Restoration Project in Central Asian Kazakhstan, Zadneprovskaya, has spent the past three years working to bring life back to the seabed. 

At first, the setting felt crushing and almost made her want to give up, she says. But then a seedling of something bigger, an urge to drive change, began to take root.

Holding back the desert

Zadneprovskaya and her team have been planting black saxaul trees on a 500-hectare (1,235-acre) plot of land in the North Aral Sea region to help hold back the desert and make the area more resilient to the impacts of climate change. 

Saxaul shrubs can stabilize the sand, helping to prevent soil degradation and reduce health impacts from inhaling potentially polluted dust. 

"These shrubs are unique. Their roots can hold up to 8,819 pounds (4,000 kilogramms) of sand," says Zadneprovskaya, as she runs her hands along the plant's spiny scales. 

The bush is native to Central Asia and is a psammophyte, meaning it thrives in sandy soils where other plants cannot survive. Its vegetation is like green camel's hair, rough and unruly, sprawling in all directions.

The Oasis project, as it's called, is in a remote area. The only way to make a call from the campsite is if someone turns up with a Starlink satellite kit — a rare but welcome occurrence for the team. 

And they're constantly battling the sand. 

From a thriving community to a ghost village 

"When a sandstorm hits, everything is foggy and opaque," says Zauresh Alimbetova, the head of the Aral Oasis public association. "Sand particles are like mist, completely impenetrable. But where there are saxaul trees, there is better visibility."

The shrubs block the path of the drifting sand.

Alimbetova, 58, is from Aralsk, a small city about 74 miles from base camp. She first saw the Aral when she was four. It splashed just behind the district hospital. Alimbetova would often run down to the beach for a swim and an ice cream with her siblings.

"There was a Lighthouse Club and a Fishmongers' Club. The local paper was called the Wave. Kids went to the Seagull Nursery," she says. A local factory supplied large quantities of fish to other Soviet republics. The town was alive with the honking of ships' horns. Sailors ran around in their maritime uniforms. Captains were busy on the docks.  

Like most communities in the area, Aralsk's economy was dependent on the water. Then, around 1975, rumors began to spread that the Aral was receding.

"My mother, who was a teacher, read in a science magazine that if the sea disappeared, there would be nothing but sand and sand alone. It was a terrifying prospect."

But that was what happened. The flow into the Aral fell from 43.3 cubic kilometers (10.4 cubic miles) in the 1960s to 16.7 cubic kilometers in the 1980s, leaving Aralsk high and dry. A local ship-repair yard was turned into a plant for fixing railway cars, and a fish factory that employed some 3,000 people shuttered.

The ghost village of Akespe, about 55 miles from Aralsk, is a striking example of a fishing village swallowed by the sand. About 20 houses stand abandoned, scattered along the two main roads. The dunes have eaten their way up to the windows. Some of them have gaping holes. Others are covered with crumpled old newspaper.

Almost all residents, save one or two, have moved to New Akespe, a village built less than a mile away.

Rooting for the cause

The town Aralsk, by contrast, survived the economic and social freefall of the post-Soviet period. By 2022, it had a stable population of around 36,793. The Kok-Aral dam, financed by the World Bank, raised the water level in the North Aral Sea to 42 meters, and parts of the waterfront made a comeback. 

But there are areas of the Large Aral Sea in southern Kazakhstan and neighboring Uzbekistan where the water will never return. In these places, there is a pressing need to create new ecosystems — such as at the Oasis project.  

There, long rows of saxaul shrubs stretch to the horizon in a patch planted in 2022. In the desolate vastness of the desert, the fruit-bearing shrubs look like fluffy clouds of pink and yellow floating above the ground. 

Keeping them alive in this hostile environment is difficult. Survival rates can vary, depending on soil conditions, nursery stock quality, and root protection.  

If the sandy soil is too saline, it can burn the roots. To protect this batch of shrubs, workers trapped sand and snow in the furrows that would later receive saplings. This created a cushion of less salty ground around the roots.  

"The seedlings were planted in March while they were still hibernating," says deputy manager Zadneprovskaya.

Changing the patterns

With cancer, kidney disease, and infant mortality among the region's worst health problems, creating "green belts" is an effective way to combat drift from salt and contaminated dust and improve public health. 

But saxaul alone won't do the job. It is essential to integrate planting practices into landscape planning. "We have to decide what to do with the land where the shrubs are planted," says Talgat Kerteshev of the Kazakh National Agrarian Research University. 

If the aim is to create pasture, the focus should be on fodder crops. And while saxaul can be used for grazing, it is not the main component of a dairy cow's diet. 

One of the approaches could be to pursue 'mixed planting.' This involves introducing several species of trees, shrubs, and herbs to grow together in a mutually beneficial way. Some of these can then be sold as herbal remedies. Others will make the soil less salty. "This is essential for the sustainable use of ecosystems," says Kerteshev.  

Another challenge is involving local communities in the planting process. According to Zadneprovskaya, eight of the 12 people engaged in the Oasis project are locals. But it's just a drop in the ocean for the entire Aral Sea area. Doing this on a larger scale could help push change.  

Aigul Solovyova, chairwoman of the Association of Environmental Organizations of Kazakhstan, has been conducting surveys for years.  

"In 2023, 7% of people in the Almaty region in  south-eastern  Kazakhstan were aware of climate change. This year the figure has risen to 30%," she says. Raising awareness of environmental issues, such as saxaul planting, is a gradual process that requires targeted interventions and regular calls for action.

Still, despite the challenges, things are looking up for the thin patch of saxaul shrubs at the Oasis outpost. Some are already bearing fruit. Dragonflies hum, while yellow ground squirrels scurry by. 

Where the Aral Sea once stood, a new ecosystem — fragile yet bold — is gradually taking root.   

Edited by: Jennifer Collins and Tamsin Walker

Research for this article was made possible with support from the Pulitzer Center.

Malaysia will formally take over the annually rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in January 2025.

On the agenda is the drafting of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, the successor to the current Vision 2025 guidelines set to expire at the end of next year.

Malaysia will also have to address the burgeoning cyber-scamming industries that have flourished in parts of the region.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising between several Southeast Asian states and China over disputed territory in the South China Sea, even as Myanmar, an ASEAN member, remains engulfed in a civil war.

China's growing involvement there is making an ASEAN-led solution seem increasingly marginal.

More challenging still, Malaysia will helm the 10-member regional bloc just before the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president on January 20.

Can the center hold?

These interlinked issues underscore the importance of maintaining ASEAN's "cohesiveness" amid turbulent geopolitical currents. Keeping US-China tensions from spilling over further into Southeast Asia will be crucial, Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, told DW.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim conveyed a similar sentiment during his address at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane in October, as reported by Radio Free Asia.

"We cannot overstress the importance of dialogue and cooperation forming the fundamentals of amity and good relations," he said. "As global tensions continue to rise, cracks and divisions within ASEAN run the risk of being exploited to the detriment of ASEAN centrality and cohesiveness."

Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Wilson Center's Asia Program, told DW that Malaysia is likely to be "active and outspoken" on geopolitical and economic issues during its chairmanship, given Anwar's past vocal stances.

"We can expect Malaysia's chairmanship year to include a focus not just on major power dynamics, but also on middle powers and other regions in line with growing attention to Global South discontent," he added.

New leadership in Southeast Asia

A wave of new leadership across Southeast Asia could also shape Malaysia's chairmanship of ASEAN.

Indonesia's new president, Prabowo Subianto, took office in October. Singapore and Thailand installed new prime ministers in August and May, respectively, and Cambodia underwent a significant leadership reshuffle in 2023.

Vietnam and Laos will spend much of next year engaged in backroom discussions ahead of their respective National Congresses in early 2026.

On the one hand, given Anwar's regional stature, these leadership changes could mean other governments show him more deference, allowing Malaysia greater leeway to steer ASEAN's agenda. That could help if other leaders focus on domestic consolidation rather than making waves on the regional stage.

On the other hand, these changes might complicate matters. For example, Indonesia under President Subianto may want to carve out a more assertive regional role, potentially clashing with Malaysia's priorities.

The South China Sea dilemma

Joanne Lin, a senior fellow and co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, noted Malaysia's dual position as both a claimant state in the South China Sea and the current country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations.

This means Malaysia "has a significant stake" in advancing the Code of Conduct negotiations with Beijing, a purported peaceful means of solving ongoing disputes, which ASEAN has said it hopes to finalize by 2026.

"Malaysia will likely prioritize pushing these talks forward, emphasizing ASEAN's collective interest in ensuring a rules-based approach to maritime disputes," Lin said.

"However, if Malaysia is perceived as leaning too closely toward China, it may face challenges in maintaining the trust of other claimant states, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, which are more assertive in defending their territorial claims," she added.

"Malaysia will need to carefully navigate these dynamics, addressing the security concerns of its ASEAN partners while avoiding direct confrontation with China."

Beyond ASEAN's Reach?

Malaysia may find it tougher to shape events in Myanmar, where a full-blown civil war eruptedafter a military coup in 2021.

ASEAN's response, centered on the so-called Five-Point Consensus, has been widely criticized as ineffective, leaving a vacuum that outside powers, particularly China, have begun to fill.

Beijing has deepened ties with the Myanmar junta and this month forced some of the anti-junta ethnic militias to accept ceasefires.

There are concerns that China may consider putting boots on the ground, ostensibly to protect Chinese assets and citizens, thereby increasing its influence over the conflict's trajectory.

Because of its relatively close ties with Beijing, Malaysia may be "well-positioned" to press China and the junta toward inclusive dialogue, Lin said.

However, this could also create friction within ASEAN, especially if the incoming Trump administration adopts a more confrontational approach.

Anwar's government has grown more distant from the West over the past year. He has twice met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has refrained from condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Anwar has frequently accused Western governments of "double standards” concerning their support for Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

All these factors increase the complexity of Malaysia's upcoming chairmanship. "ASEAN is already moving towards China and this creates some tensions within the organization," Welsh observed.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Protesting farmers in northern India clashed with police over the weekend as they attempted to march towards the Indian capital New Delhi. The march reinvigorated a long-standing movement demanding government guarantees on crop prices.

On Sunday, farmers were met with tear gas and water cannons as they tried to breach police barricades on the border of Punjab and Haryana states in northern India. Eight protesters were reported injured.

Security has been tightened, while internet service has been blocked locally in Haryana by authorities who say they want to prevent the spread of misinformation in nearby villages around the protest site.  

The violent clashes were reminiscent of the massive protests over new farm laws in 2020 and 2021, during which hundreds of thousands of farmers camped on the outskirts of New Delhi.

The protests eventually pushed the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to abandon three bills that were aimed at overhauling India's agricultural economy. 

Farmers unions at the time said the bills would have allowed large corporations to set the prices of crops, thereby endangering farmers' income. At the core of the farmers' demands was a legal guarantee of a "Minimum Support Price," (MSP) for certain essential crops, which protects farmers from price drops.

After the laws were withdrawn in 2021, India's government pledged to set up an advisory panel comprising government officials and farmers to chart a path to ensuring minimum prices for crops.

However, farmers say the government is not doing enough after multiple meetings failed to bear fruit.

Farmers want stronger crop price guarantees

As a result of the faltering negotiations, the farmers have been camped out at Shambhu and Khanauri border points between the two north Indian states since February 2024.

This time around, aside from MSP guarantees, the farmers are demanding a range of measures from the government to ensure the financial feasibility of farming. This includes a farm debt waiver, pensions for farmers and farm laborers, and no hike in electricity tariffs.

On Friday last week, Indian Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told parliament that the government had fixed MSPs of crops to allow least 50% returns to farmers and will purchase all farm produce at these rates. 

"This is the Modi government's guarantee," Chouhan said in the context of ongoing farm protests. This has not yet satisfied farmers who maintain that the government only buys rice and wheat in sufficient quantities at the support price level.

"There does not seem to be any sincerity to solving the farmers' issues. The government is always seeking to buy time. We demand enforceable MSPs for all essential crops," Darshan Pal a farmer's union leader, told DW. 

But implementing a nationwide price safety net for farmers is complicated, one expert told DW. "To truly address the income security issues faced by farmers, agrarian reforms must focus on expanding the scope of MSP, improving procurement processes, and ensuring that all farmers can access these benefits equitably," Lekha Chakraborty, professor and chair at India's National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, told DW. 

"There has to be more substantial guarantees regarding their livelihoods to create a sustainable agricultural framework," she added. 

March on hold, for now

The farmers are now planning their next move after being stopped by police from marching on Delhi. Their cause was boosted after India's Supreme Court refused to act on a petition calling for the protesters to be cleared from national and state highways in Punjab.

"We will chalk out our next course of strategy as we are put on hold our march for now. We will not give up till our demands are met," Swaran Singh Pandher of the "Kisan Majdoor Morcha" (KMM) protest group told DW.  

Pandher has gained attention in recent weeks for spearheading the current farmer protests, including the "March to Delhi."

"We have the right to protest and our demands cannot be ignored. The way forward is mounting pressure," added Pandher. 

Since November 26, to keep the pressure up, another farmer leader, Jagjeet Singh Dallewal, has been on a fast-unto-death at the Khanauri border. 

Agriculture is India's economic backbone  

Agriculture is a critical sector in India, employing a significant portion of the population and contributing around 15 to 20% to the GDP, although this share has been declining. 

According to recent government figures, approximately 260 million people in India are employed in agriculture, which accounts for over 45% of the country's workforce.  

This statistic is supported by data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which indicates that the share of workers in agriculture has increased to over 46% as of 2024, up from 42.5% prior to the COVID pandemic. 

A key problem is ensuring income for smallholders, farmers who cultivate marginal or small holdings of less than two hectares (just under five acres) of land. 

Smallholders face various production risks including climate-related issues like droughts and floods, which disproportionately affect their yields compared to larger farms. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture further aggravates these challenges. 

Indra Shekhar Singh, an independent agriculture policy analyst, told DW the government must address the long-standing grievances of the farming community with sufficient targeted spending. 

"The farmers' protests represent a new reality. The hunger strike and tear gassing of peacefully protesting farmers is creating public sympathy for them. What is brewing right now is a warm-up," said Singh 

"Both the parties — government and the farmers groups are testing the waters and readjusting their strategies," he added.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Alongside the laureates for the Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine and Economic Sciences, South Korean author Han Kang is receiving her award at a ceremony held at the Stockholm Concert Hall in Sweden, on December 10 — the anniversary of Alfred Nobel's death.

She delivered her Nobel Prize lecture ahead of the ceremony, on December 7.

In a lecture titled "Light and Thread," she revisits the impulses that have guided her literary journey. Going back to a poem book she wrote at the age of 8, she sees a strong continuity between her early passion for words and her present work: "Where is love? It is inside my thump-thumping beating chest. What is love? It is the gold thread connecting between our hearts," her poem reads.

She then goes on to point out that throughout her work, which includes "The Vegetarian" or "Human Acts," she explores the question of why humans are so violent, and what it means "to belong to the species called human." 

"Why is the world so violent and painful? And yet how can the world be this beautiful?" are two questions at the core of her writing, she says.

It is Han Kang's powerful exploration of those questions that led the Swedish Academy to recognize her with the world's top award in literature, noting her "intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life."

From poems to prose

The 53-year-old Han Kang hails from a literary background, with her father already a well-regarded novelist. Han Kang began her career in 1993 with the publication of a number of poems in the South Korean magazine Literature and Society, while her prose debut came in 1995 with the short story collection "Love of Yeosu."

The author later began writing longer prose works and had her major international breakthrough with "The Vegetarian." First published in Korean in 2007, the novel was translated into English in 2015, winning the Man Booker International Prize a year later.

It tells the story of Yeong-hye, a homemaker who, one day, decides to stop eating meat after having a series of dreams with images of animal slaughter. Her decision not to eat meat is met with diverse reactions; it eventually distances her from her family and society, and ultimately sees her descending into a psychosis-like condition.

"Human Acts" (2014) tells the stories of the survivors and victims of the 1980 Gwangju Uprising in South Korea. Having grown up in Gwangju herself, Han Kang's book captured the event where hundreds of students and unarmed civilians were murdered during a massacre carried out by the South Korean military.

The Swedish Academy stated: "In seeking to give voice to the victims of history, the book confronts this episode with brutal actualization and, in so doing, approaches the genre of witness literature." Some critics have described it as Han's best novel. It won Korea's Manhae Prize for Literature in 2014 and Italy's Malaparte Prize in 2017. 

In "The White Book" (2016) the story's unnamed narrator moves to a European city where she is haunted by the story of her older sister, who died a mere two hours after birth. This book about mourning, rebirth and the tenacity of the human spirit was shortlisted for the Man Booker International Prize in 2018.

In their citation, the Swedish Academy lauded Han's work for her "unique awareness of the connections between body and soul, the living and the dead." Through her "poetic and experimental style," the academy said, Han "has become an innovator in contemporary prose."

Asian representation

Han Kang is not only the first South Korean to win the award, but also the first Asian woman to do so. 

With her win, she joins eight Asian men who have won the prize. Poet, philosopher, composer and visionary Rabindranath Tagore (1861-1941) was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in literature in 1913. 

Founded in 1786 by Swedish King Gustav III, the Swedish Academy is the body that is responsible for selecting the Nobel laureates in literature. Composed of 18 members — known as " De Aderton" (or The Eighteen) — with life tenure, current members include distinguished Swedish writers, linguists, literary scholars, historians and a prominent jurist.

The academy has long been criticized for the overrepresentation of European and North American and predominantly white, male authors among its laureates, and was rocked by a #MeToo scandal in 2018. Of 120 laureates, only 18 have been women, with eight of them being awarded the prize in the past 20 years.

Han Kang follows Norwegian author Jon Fosse, a playwright known for his avant-garde style. French author Annie Ernaux, who the academy praised for her "courage and critical acuity," was the 2022 winner; in 2021, the academy honored British Tanzanian-born writer Abdulrazak Gurnah, whose work explores exile, colonialism and racism. 

Edited by: Elizabeth Grenier

Update: This article, first written on October 10 when the 2024 laureate was announced, was updated on December 10 for the Nobel Prize award ceremony.

In the week since December 3, Hyobin Lee, a college professor who lives in Seoul, has been on an emotional rollercoaster, swinging from shock when President Yoon Suk-yeol briefly  declared martial law to anger about the aftermath of this move.

An adjunct professor of politics and ethics at Chungnam National University, Lee said the events had rekindled a determination to protect the democracy that so many South Koreans have died for in the past.

She told DW she believed democracy had prevailed, but it was a close call.

On Saturday, she was one of 10s of thousands of South Koreans to protest outside the National Assembly. She held up a sign bearing the single word: "Impeach."

South Korea's opposition undeterred

Inside the parliament, a motion brought by the opposition Democratic Party to impeach Yoon for "unconstitutionally and illegally" declaring martial law failed as members of Yoon's People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the vote.

Yoon has since been banned from leaving South Korea and the PPP leader Han Dong-hunhas called on Yoon to resign.

The opposition says it intends to bring another motion to the chamber this Wednesday and every week until Yoon is removed.

It has also persuaded prosecutors to open an investigation into Yoon on charges of treason and abuse of power. Yoon's defense minister, Kim Yong-hyun, has already been arrested on treason charges and is being questioned.

An alarming reminder of the past

Lee, who was not in Seoul on the day that martial law was declared but followed developments throughout the night, said the events last week were an alarming throwback to South Korea's authoritarian past.

"Seeing armed soldiers was terrifying. I couldn't believe such events were possible in 2024," she said. "The most shocking moments were when armed soldiers broke the windows to enter the National Assembly and helicopters descended onto its grounds."

"One of the most frightening aspects was that soldiers went to arrest Kim Ou-joon, a left-wing journalist," she added.

"This government, which ruthlessly punishes those who oppose it, is truly frightening. As a university faculty member, I have participated in recent discussions about the state of affairs on campuses. I realized that under martial law, I too could be imprisoned," she said.

Under Park Chung-hee's military dictatorship in the 1960s "countless individuals were tortured and killed," she said. In May 1980, the junta of Chun Doo-hwan massacred well over 200 civilians when the army was sent into the city of Gwangju to put down protests.

"These deaths come to mind as I saw what was happening," Lee said. "I could not stand by and watch Korean democracy perish like this. It's not enough to say I'm angry or disappointed; a boiling rage was ignited within me. The people around me felt the same way too."

Protracted political turmoil for South Korea?

Many South Koreans believe the 90-second apology that Yoon made on Saturday was completely inadequate and was instead more of a call for his party to do whatever it could to avoid impeachment, suggesting that he does not intend to step down.

That decision may be out of his hands, however, as the PPP leader has indicated that the ruling party intends to force Yoon to resign for new elections, although it does appear that it would prefer to avoid an impeachment process.

Analysts agree that, for the foreseeable future, South Korean politics are likely to be in turmoil, with knock-on impacts on the economy, diplomacy and security concerns.

Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the PPP leader and the prime minister, Han Duck-soo, were attempting to stabilize state affairs and "buy time to regroup before a possible early election to replace the president."

But the stakes in the in-fighting go well beyond South Korea, he added. "Leaders in Russia, China and especially North Korea are likely watching the political turmoil in South Korea with glee, sensing a geopolitical advantage," he said. "The stakes in Seoul extend beyond Korean democracy."

"They include whether a state defending the international order will continue to stand against Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, and whether a key middle power in the Indo-Pacific will maintain its resolve to push back against economic coercion and advocate for human rights," he added.

"South Korea's trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile threats also hangs in the balance," Easley pointed out. "Now is not the time for Seoul to allow the profound misjudgment and personal ambitions of individual politicians to disorient its foreign policy."

South Korea's democracy is resilient

Yoon's public support rate has collapsed to a mere 7%, suggesting that for the majority of South Koreans, the priority is his removal from office.

"Currently, Seoul is bustling with demonstrations and wherever you go there is nothing but criticism of Yoon," said Lee. "While it was fortunate that the declaration of martial law was quickly cancelled, I couldn't believe that such a madman was the president."

"My immediate thought was that we need to quickly remove him from the presidency," she added. "With the people already turning their backs on him, it will be difficult for him to govern."

She is proud that South Korea's hard-won democracy has shown resilience to the tests it has endured.

"South Korea's democracy has become deeply entrenched and the events of this week confirm that a return to authoritarianism is highly unlikely," she said. "This realization offers great solace during the current crisis."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

China's economy is still struggling to recover from the pandemic, nearly two years after Beijing dropped its draconian zero-COVID lockdowns. In the first three quarters of 2024, economic growth came at 4.8% — just shy of Beijing's 5% target.

Deflation, weak consumer demand and a huge real estate crash have hurt the country's incredible growth trajectory, while ongoing trade tensions with the United States — likely to worsen under Donald Trump's second term — have hurt exports, which were credited with helping China's ascent to become the world's second-largest economy.

"China suffers from overproduction and under-consumption," George Magnus, a research associate at the University of Oxford's China Centre and former chief economist at UBS, told DW. "[Chinese leaders] have finally recognized that the economy seems to be losing momentum and is not a one-off."

Beijing tries targeted approach to stimulus

In September, Beijing injected liquidity into the banking system worth 2.7 trillion yuan ($370 billion/€350 billion) to encourage lending, cut interest rates and announced new infrastructure spending and aid to indebted property developers.

Last month, the Chinese government unveiled a further boost worth 10 trillion yuan to help ease a debt crisis among regional governments, which borrowed heavily for infrastructure and economic development projects in recent years.

These measures sparked a spectacular short-term rally in Chinese stocks — the CSI 300 index of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen soared by 35%. Investors bet that Beijing would soon announce trillions more yuan to help boost domestic consumption.

"There was speculation that there would be finally demand-side policy to support consumption. So far, none of this has come true," Singapore-based Jiayu Li, senior associate at the public-policy advisory firm Global Counsel, told DW.

Not real stimulus measures

Li said while the package announced was "impressive," it was primarily focused on restructuring existing debts and "cannot be regarded as a new stimulus." She said Beijing was still underestimating the size of local government debt at 14.3 trillion yuan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has put the figure at 60 trillion yuan, or 47.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The new measures are much larger than the amount unleashed in the wake of the 2008/09 financial crisis, which was worth up to 4 trillion yuan. Then, however, the measures equated to almost 13% of GDP, versus about 10% this year. This intervention helped China to keep GDP growth above 8% during the global downturn.

Magnus believes the latest raft of measures will only have a "marginal effect" on growth, as they will ease the pressure on local and provincial governments to slash budgets. But he warned that Beijing was "just skirting round the edges" and would quite soon need to take "radical" steps to tackle many structural issues in the economy.

Trump 2.0 will require support from Beijing

Many other China watchers also think the recent moves don't go far enough, especially with Trump threatening new US tariffs on Chinese imports when he returns to the White House in January.

Trump said last month he would put an additional 10% levy on all Chinese goods entering the US, potentially raising the overall tariff to 35%. A  recent poll of economists by the Reuters news agency predicted that new US tariffs could hurt China's growth by up to a percentage point.

"The market is hoping that Beijing is choosing to hold off on more fiscal measures until next year [when Trump takes office]," Li told DW, adding that concerns are growing that the impact of any potential stimulus will be even more limited by then.

Chinese currency likely to weaken

Magnus, meanwhile, said he thinks the new tariffs "won't have a huge impact" on China's economy, although they may lead to further weakening of the yuan.

During the first round of Trump's tariffs in March 2018, Beijing offset some of the impact by letting the yuan depreciate, which made Chinese exports cheaper. The currency fell by roughly 12% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest point in nearly a decade by August 2019. Washington then labeled China a "currency manipulator," which sparked even higher US tariffs for months until negotiations eased tensions somewhat between the two powers.

Does China need a Marshall Plan?

Huang Yiping, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University and a member of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee, has called for a much larger stimulus program to "stabilize and spur domestic demand."

In an interview this month with the South China Morning Post, he called for Beijing to unleash a "Chinese Marshall Plan," referring to the post-World War II economic aid program launched by the US to rebuild Europe.

Huang's version proposes using China's surplus industrial capacity to help low-income countries in the Global South build new infrastructure and transition to renewable energies. The proposal is, however, likely to face a backlash from the West, which is already concerned about China's growing influence in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

How much will Beijing unleash next?

President Xi Jinping and other senior officials met on Monday to hash out economic plans for 2025, calling for a more "relaxed" monetary policy, the Xinhua news agency cited officials as saying.

"We must vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand," Xinhua reported.

China's top leadership, the Politburo, is due to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference on Wednesday to set key targets and policy intentions for next year.

Many analysts think Beijing needs to inject substantially more amounts into the economy — with projections ranging between a further 5 trillion yuan to 10 trillion yuan. Carlos Casanova, a senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privee, told Reuters last month that a 23-trillion yuan package was needed.

Analysts have also recommended that any future stimulus should focus on social welfare spending for households and more help for the ailing real estate sector, rather than traditional industrial investment and infrastructure projects.

While Magnus agreed that the government will "fine-tune" its policies to boost domestic demand, he is skeptical whether China will speedily move from a production-based, export-driven economy.

"I'm not saying that Beijing will be hollow when it comes to further stimulus measures, but I think the government's priority is certainly not to change the development model to become a more consumer-led, welfare-oriented economy," he told DW.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

This story was first published on November 28, 2024, and was updated on December 9 with details of the Politburo meeting.

At dawn, 48-year-old Sivakumar Chandradevi loads equipment and supplies onto a boat that sets off for Mantivu, a deserted island off the Jaffna Peninsula in Sri Lanka.

The island, littered with land mines from the country's 26-year civil war, is her team's daily battleground. Chandradevi leads a demining crew working to make the land safe once more.

For these women, demining is a means to support their families. 

"Working here is really tough, taking care of a team in the midst of all these things is quite challenging," Chandradevi said.

Together, they carefully unearth factory-made and improvised explosives — remnants of a brutal conflict that claimed more than 100,000 lives.

"If we didn't clear the mines, people would lose their limbs or lives. Sometimes fishermen come along with their children, taking them fishing. Clearing the mines makes them feel safe and protected," Chandradevi said. "I hope nobody gets affected by the land mines the way we once were."

Demining the legacy of Sri Lanka's civil war

During Sri Lanka's decadeslong civil war, both the Sri Lankan Army and the Tamil rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), known as the Tamil Tigers, laid tens of thousands of anti-personnel mines to secure territory and fortify front lines.

The Tamil rebels sought to establish an independent homeland, citing systemic marginalization by the Sinhalese-majority government.

Even after the war ended in 2009 with the crushing defeat of the LTTE, the land mines have continued to endanger civilians.

Forty-seven-year-old Sundramurthi Sasireka, a demining field supervisor, described the work as an act of defiance against the "cursed land" of Muhamalai, a former front-line between the warring sides.

"If we clear all these mines, thousands of people will get their livelihoods back," she said.

Sasireka's life has been shaped by years of conflict. Her work has made her the resilient and determined woman she is today.

"Women can stand on their own with a little courage," said Sasireka, who juggles the demands of her dangerous job with caring for her son and elderly mother.

Both Sasireka and Chandradevi work for the Halo Trust, an NGO dedicated to the humanitarian task of clearing land mines and unexploded ordnance while supporting communities affected by conflict. Halo maintains a neutral position concerning the history of the war, and says its sole focus on on clearing landmines to ensure community safety.

Mothers, sisters and wives of the disappeared

While deminers work to remove the physical remnants of the war, another unresolved trauma looms large: the disappearance of more than 20,000 people, mostly Tamils, during the conflict.

In 2020, the Sri Lankan government declared all missing persons dead, a move that left families feeling abandoned in their search for justice.

Reports from the United Nations and human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International, have highlighted that Sri Lanka has the second-highest number of disappearances globally.

As most of the disappeared were men, it is primarily mothers, sisters and wives who have led the search for their loved ones.

According to the UN, enforced disappearances were primarily used by Sri Lankan security forces and the paramilitary group LTTE to intimidate and suppress perceived opponents.

For 74-year-old Nadaraja Sivaranjani, whose son and granddaughter disappeared in 2009, the wounds are still raw. Holding onto photos of her loved ones, she questions the government's offer of compensation: "Would a mother accept money in place of her child?"

Survivors and activists argue that without a genuine effort to investigate these disappearances and bring perpetrators to justice, reconciliation will remain unlikely.

Change of leadership in Sri Lanka

The Sri Lankan government's promises of reconciliation have long been met with skepticism. Newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake recently pledged to return lands seized by the military to displaced Tamils.

In Mullaitivu, some are legally fighting for the rights of those whose lands were seized.

"Farmers, fishermen and poor people come to us saying, 'This state department has filed a case against our land, and now we have nothing for agriculture,'" said V.S.S. Thananchayan, a Mullaitivu-based human rights lawyer. "Most of them lost their documents during the 2009 war or the 2004 tsunami. Collecting documents or evidence to prove our case in court is extremely difficult."

In Sri Lanka's east and north, Tamil farmers and activists face land seizures under the guise of state-backed development projects.

During the final stages of the war, both the Sri Lankan Army and the LTTE committed atrocities, including mass killings, enforced disappearances and gender-based violence.

The United Nations has documented these crimes, but successive governments have resisted calls for an independent war crimes tribunal, framing these issues as internal matters.

Whether the new president will fulfill his promise to return the seized lands and pave the way for reconciliation measures remains to be seen.

Reconciliation measures amid cultural, linguistic divides

The lack of accountability has compounded the mistrust between Tamil communities and the state. While infrastructure in the Tamil-majority north and east remains underdeveloped, the Sinhalese-majority south has seen significant investment. 

The linguistic and cultural divide between Tamil and Sinhalese communities remains a significant barrier to reconciliation.

Amita Arudpragasam, a former reconciliation official, notes the chronic shortage of bilingual officials in key institutions like police stations, hospitals and courts. 

"Without state involvement, my fear is that communities will move further apart rather than come together," she warned, adding that the community of those affected by the atrocities is seeking accountability in various forms, including public apologies, acknowledgement or sentencing.

Healing emotional wounds and trauma

The physical scars of the conflict — land mines, ruined homes and mass graves — are matched by the emotional wounds that linger.

Chandradevi's life has been marked by immense loss and unrelenting grief. Like many others affected by the war, she continues to hold on to a fragile hope of reuniting with her loved ones.

"My husband and son went missing, and we're still searching for them," she said, her voice heavy with sorrow. "There are many others like us. We're clinging to a sliver of hope. All we have left are our tears."

The emotional toll of these losses has profoundly affected Chandradevi's mental health.

"I've never known happiness in life," she shared. "The only peace I find is when I'm working — otherwise, I would have lost my mind."

The work of women like Chandradevi and Sasireka is a persistent act of rebuilding and reclaiming, but their efforts alone cannot address the longstanding divisions caused by the war.

Edited by: Keith Walker

Is Alice Weidel really the most popular German politician in China? The leader of the populist, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is probably the only member of Germany's Parliament, the Bundestag, who speaks Chinese.

As a student, Weidel researched and wrote her doctoral thesis on the pension system in China. Many reels about Weidel are circulating on Chinese state-controlled social media.

The designated AfD candidate for chancellor in the 2025 election is popular in China because she opposes US and EU integration policies.

The fact that Weidel could have a chance of becoming German Chancellor is one of countless cliches in China.

The social elite in China is well aware that cooperation between China as the world's second-largest economy and Germany as the third-largest can only be sustainable if the public has an objective and nuanced image of Germany.

China's "Annual Development Report of Germany (2024)" was published in mid-November.

The publisher is the German Research Center of Tongji University in Shanghai. Its predecessor, the "German Medical School for Chinese in Shanghai," was founded in 1907 by the German naval doctor Erich Paulun.

The 386-page study has not taken into account the latest changes in Germany's politics, such as the coalition government's collapse, and the upcoming snap elections.

The majority of the data used is as of 2023. Nevertheless, it is very informative to read how intensively and thoroughly Chinese researchers are studying Germany.

Germany's shift toward the right a top topic

One of the dominant themes is the rise of the AfD. According to the authors, many people in Germany are worried about the overall political and economic situation.

The AfD is said to be taking advantage of these concerns to divide and polarize society. "The strong tailwinds for right-wing populism and its party pose huge challenges for the other established political parties," said Xuan Li, Professor at Tongji University.

Whether the shift to the right can be reversed depends on whether "the other parties manage to respond appropriately to the mood of the electorate," Xuan said.

The right-wing populists are seen as advocating a new foreign policy that challenges the established "politically correct" alliance with the United States.

After Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, for example, the AfD in the Bundestag called for the abolition of sanctions against Russia. "The political tug-of-war between the AfD and the others will immediately put relations between the US and Germany to the test," the authors say.

Troubled trans-Atlantic ties

On his trip to the United States in February, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described relations between the US and Germany as "intensive, close and amicable in a way that has probably not been the case for many years and decades."

As if the political scientists from China had already foreseen the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, they made a prediction about the future development of the trans-Atlantic alliance before the editorial deadline.

"If Donald Trump were to be reelected, the risk of new disputes and even conflicts arising between Germany and the US in terms of defense and trade would be extremely high," the authors wrote.

"An appropriate response to the unpredictability of the new US administration would then be a difficult undertaking. After all, we are seeing a surge of nationalism in economic life across borders, from the US to Germany and many other European countries," they continued.

"This mixture," they wrote, "will put a heavy strain on the future of relations between Germany and the US and the alliance between the two countries in the Ukraine war."

The war in Ukraine is also a joint challenge for Germany and China, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made clear during her trip to Beijing earlier this week.

Both countries face immense hurdles in overcoming such challenges, Wulf Linzenich, chairman of the German-Chinese Business Association (DCW), said at the organization's annual conference in Düsseldorf on Tuesday.

"How can we find a balance between increased cooperation with the US and maintaining an equal partnership with China? The economic engine of the coming decades will undoubtedly be in Asia. Europe will remain an important partner for China in the future. A clear and coherent strategy that takes both sides into account is essential," said Linzenich.

German 'de-risking' from China 

Beijing has not really warmed to the Green foreign minister, as the German government's China Strategy 2023 came from her department.

The strategy defines China as a "partner, competitor and rival."

According to Beijing, the political focus is more on the latter aspect. It also calls on the German economy to "de-risk," where dependence on China for critical sectors is to be avoided through diversification.

The authors of the report, Kou Kou and Shi Shiwei, write that de-risking is expensive and fraught.

Germany's economy would have to pay a high price for the political decision to restrict cooperation with China, its largest trading partner globally for the past eight years, they wrote.

"Germany is now acutely threatened with a slip into recession," according to the authors. "The leeway in fiscal policy has been exhausted. The German government lacks support for its China strategy within its own ranks and in many other EU countries. The real effects of de-risking fall well short of political expectations."

'Made by China'

The authors write that competition is healthy.

"Reform and opening up an objective cooperation without ideological disputes have brought tangible benefits to both partners," they write. "As the economy strengthens, Chinese companies are competing with the German economy in some areas. But healthy competition does not necessarily have a negative impact on economic cooperation."

China is irreversibly integrated into the global economy and will continue to have a significant impact on markets and the digital space in the future, Andreas Schmitz, president of the Düsseldorf Chamber of Industry and Commerce, said at the DCW conference. This also applies worldwide to climate protection and the definition of industry standards.

"The People's Republic continues to be an important market for German and European companies. But China also plays an important role for the European and German economy in terms of raw materials and primary products now, and even more so in the future with regard to the innovative strength of the country and its companies," continued the IHK President.

"Made in China" was not always meant in a positive way in the past. "Today we say 'Made by China'. And that is meant positively."

This article has been translated from German

In table tennis, China has been the undisputed No. 1 for decades, success that has been supplemented to a certain extent by regional neighbors. Now though, the rest of the world, led by Europe, wants to catch up to truly take the sport to the next level and increase its popularity on all continents.

"Historically, table tennis has been seen as an Asian-dominated sport, largely due to China's enduring excellence and its deep cultural connection to the game," World Table Tennis CEO Steve Dainton told DW.

Challenging China and changing this perception will not be easy.

The country's love affair with the sport started in 1959, when Rong Guotuan won the world championships in Dortmund, Germany, and became a national sensation. Two years later, China hosted the event.

Since table tennis entered the Olympics in 1988, the country has won more medals than the rest of the world combined. After the 2008 Beijing Games when the host nation managed a podium sweep — winning gold, silver and bronze — in both the men and the women's events, the rules were changed so each country could only enter two athletes.

"There's a deeply ingrained culture and infrastructure around the sport, with systematic training programs and a strong pipeline for identifying and developing talent from a young age," said Dainton.

"Chinese players benefit from world-class training facilities and a high level of competition, even domestically," he added. "Additionally, they're motivated by an immense national pride in maintaining this legacy, which has produced several generations of highly skilled players."

Learning from China

Yet China's dominance, epitomized by Wang Chuqin and Sun Yingsha, the No. 1 World Table Tennis-ranked male and female players respectively, can help others as it sets clear standards and a road map to success.

"China has always set the bar in table tennis, especially in their training intensity and dedication to perfecting every aspect of the game," Omar Assar, an Egyptian player based in Germany, told DW. The world No. 20 lost to Wang and Sun in the mixed doubles at the Paris Olympics.

"Every match against the top Chinese players feels like an intense learning opportunity. They bring such precision and discipline to the table, which pushes me to elevate my own game."

Despite Assar's loss, there were other signs of progress for the rest of the world at the Olympics in 2024. While China took all five gold medals, Wang was defeated in the men's singles by Sweden's Truls Moregardh.

Europe has 'potential to emphasize youth development'

There is no shortcut to success however as Sofia Polcanova, one of only two non-Asian women in the top 15 players in December (China has the top five), knows well.

"From observing the precision and discipline in Asian table tennis, particularly China, there's a lot we can draw from when building programs here," Polcanova, who was born in Moldova but represents Austria, told DW.

Following China's lead in making tables readily available in schools and around cities is just a start. "For Europe, I believe there's potential to emphasize youth development even more, ensuring that young players are exposed to international competition early," said Polcanova, the European champion in 2022.

In addition to the example of China and its long history and culture, technology can also help.

"Young players and coaches now have access to endless online resources — training sessions, match footage and strategies on platforms like YouTube," Patrick Franziska, a German player placed 12th in the men's rankings, told DW.

More accessibility also means more talented players.

"It allows them to study, learn and improve faster. With more young players getting involved and more people enjoying the sport, I think European table tennis will only continue to strengthen," he said.

Competition brings fans

There may be 1.4 billion people in China, but bosses believe that more competition would help increase the sport's popularity in more corners of the world.

"When athletes from diverse regions achieve international success, it resonates strongly with fans outside of their own markets and helps build the sport's profile in those areas," said Dainton.

He pointed out that more than 40,000 people attended a tournament in the French city of Montpellier in October, helped by local hero Felix Lebrun beating Chinese stars Xiang Peng and top-seeded Lin Shidong on the way to the title.

"I believe a stronger European presence in the sport will not only drive popularity in the region but also reinforce the sport's status as a truly global game," added Dainton.

Germany has been the most successful European nation in terms of Olympic medals won, with Franziska winning silver at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

"Table tennis has always been popular in Germany, partly because of the country's strong legacy in the sport," said Franziska, who was inspired by legendary German player Timo Boll.

"He [Boll] was often seen as the main rival to China, which created an exciting dynamic for fans and watching European players compete with the best and bring home medals helps fuel that growth." 

With more success, the likes of Lebrun, Franziska and others are hoping to inspire the next generation and take the sport to new heights.

Edited by: Jonathan Harding

This week, the Taliban announced that more than 100 people were arrested in northeastern Afghanistan for allegedly growing opium poppy.

The arrests were made in a region that had previously defied an official ban on the crop put into place in 2022, for what the Taliban called religious reasons.

"Their supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, seeks to reduce opium production to zero," Abdul Haq Akhund Hamkar, deputy minister for counternarcotics at Afghanistan's Interior Ministry, told DW.

Opium is made from opium poppy, which in turn is the basic product for the hard drugs heroin and morphine.

Until 2022, Afghanistan was the country with the largest opium poppy cultivation area in the world.

The ban led to a recorded 95% drop in poppy harvests in 2023.

According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, farmers' income from opium sales fell from an estimated $1.36 billion (€1.29 billion) in 2022 to $110 million (€104 million) in 2023.

Opium remains unparalleled 

The ban on opium cultivation has hit farmers, such as Asadollah from southern Afghanistan, hard. After some 20 years growing the crop, he is now struggling to survive.

"Our fields are no longer as fertile as before," Asadollah told DW. "Even if opium crops had been forbidden in the Quran," he said, "they would have kept us alive and saved us from famine."

"At the moment, we only earn a fraction of what we used to earn from growing opium," he said.

Other farmers have tried to switch to cereals or beans.

But Hazratali, another farmer from southern Afghanistan, said these crops present major challenges.

"The amount of water needed is far too high, the risk of pests is increasing and the amount of work is enormous," Hazratali said.

"Growing opium was much easier and more profitable," he added.

The Taliban have "not yet presented a plan for those farmers who are no longer allowed to grow opium poppies," Zalmai Afzali, former spokesman for Afghanistan's Counternarcotics Ministry, told DW.

Search for substitutes finds little success

Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world, with up to 80% of its population working in agriculture.

Compared to other crops, opium cultivation is much more profitable, even during drought. That makes it a secure source of income for many farmers.

Many socially disadvantaged groups, such as unemployed people and women in rural regions, also benefited from opium cultivation.

Now these people have lost their source of income.

Considering the current drought and difficult climatic conditions in Afghanistan, there aren't many other economically viable and environmentally friendly options for them in sight.

Before the Taliban seized power in 2021, Afghanistan's government had no success in combating poppy farming.

"There were two main reasons for this," said former spokesperson Afzali.

"First, the strategies were developed outside Afghanistan and did not work as planned on the ground. And, second, we were unable to implement these plans for security reasons and due to the Taliban attacks," he said.

Poppy production on the rise again

In the past, the Taliban terror militia financed its activities by drug trafficking.

According to experts, up to 60% of the Taliban's annual income derived from the cultivation and trade of drugs until they seized power.

The Taliban drastically reduced opium production during their first period of rule from 1996 to 2001.

Since the total ban on opium poppies came into effect in 2022, it has cost the Taliban the sympathies of farmers in rural areas.

"We need international aid for the farmers. We are under sanctions. The population is suffering from poverty. And there are many drug addicts. We would like to work together with international organizations," said Abdul Haq Akhund Hamkar, the deputy minister for counternarcotics.

In November, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime reported that opium cultivation in Afghanistan had increased by 19% in 2024 compared with the previous, despite the ban.

The area under cultivation is 12,800 hectares (30,720 acres), according to the UN.

Reza Shirmohammadi contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.

Protests over alleged mistreatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh continue to heighten tensions with neighboring India.  

India and Bangladesh's relationship has soured after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power and fled to India in August amid massive student-led demonstrations. She has been living in a New Delhi safe house ever since.

Earlier this week, a Bangladeshi consular office was stormed by demonstrators in Agartala, capital of the northeast Indian state of Tripura on the Bangladesh border. The protesters were angry about the alleged mistreatment of the Hindus in Bangladesh.

In response to the attack on the consulate, India has bolstered security at the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi and other diplomatic offices across the country to prevent any further acts of violence against Bangladesh's diplomatic missions in India.

Muslim groups in Dhaka also took to the streets in protest of the attack. Consular services have been suspended indefinitely in Agartala.

There have since been arrests and police suspensions over the attack, which the Indian government has described as "deeply regrettable."

Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry has called on New Delhi to undertake a thorough investigation and has summoned the Indian high commissioner, Pranay Verma.

Anger after arrest of Hindu monk

The consulate incident follows a violent clash between police and supporters of Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das in the southern Bangladesh city of Chittagong after Das was denied bail on sedition charges. One person, a Muslim lawyer, was killed.

Das' detention has been perceived as part of a broader pattern of violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, which make up about 8% of the Muslim-majority country's 170 million people.

Das is currently the spokesman of the Hindu group Sanatan Jagran Manch. His continued detention is an ongoing source of tension. 

Gauranga Das Prabhu, a representative of the group in Bangladesh, told DW that lawyers due to appear at a new bail hearing for Das on Tuesday were threatened into not showing up. 

Mofizul Haque Bhuiya, the public prosecutor at the Chittagong court, denied that claim. 

"The case was on top of the list for bail application. But no lawyer stood up for Chinmoy Das despite repeated calls from the court," he told DW. 

Hasina issues scathing statement

Adding fuel to the fire, Hasina issued a statement on Wednesday accusing the head of Bangladesh's interim government, Muhammad Yunus, of failing to protect Hindus and other minorities.

"Hindus, Buddhists, Christians — no one has been spared. Eleven churches have been destroyed, temples and Buddhist shrines have been broken. When the Hindus protested, the ISKCON leader was arrested," Hasina said, referring to the transnational Hare Krishna movement, of which Das was a former high-ranking member until was removed in July for disciplinary reasons.

There were legal petitions filed in Bangladesh to ban ISKCON after the violence over the Hindu monk's arrest, but these were rejected by the Supreme Court. Nevertheless, Hindu groups in Bangladesh consider his continued incarceration as an attempt to stifle dissent.

Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert from India's Jindal School of International Affairs, told DW that the tensions in Bangladesh are in some cases being overstated in Indian media.

"While isolated incidents have occurred, there are no coordinated attacks against minorities. As both nations navigate this fraught landscape, continued dialogue and diplomatic engagement will be crucial," Datta said. "While some incidents may indeed reflect anti-Hindu sentiment, many are rooted in political motivations tied to the recent governmental changes and the ensuing chaos."

India's foreign secretary to visit Bangladesh

With these tensions in the background, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is heading to Dhaka for a planned visit next week in the first high-level diplomatic engagement since Bangladesh's interim government took power.

"Bilateral ties are naturally at a low point given the inflamed passions on both sides. There is, however, no escape from engagement, and dialogue is being maintained by our high commissioner," Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, India's former envoy to Bangladesh, told DW.

"Except for scaling down of visa operations, most other things like trade, electricity flow are almost normal," Chakravarty said. 

He added that violence against the Hindu minority in Bangladesh has profound political ramifications for India, given the historical memory of the 1971 Bangladesh war of independence.

Historical trauma remains

At that time, India sheltered over 10 million refugees, most of whom were Hindus fleeing violence inflicted by the Pakistani military in what was then called East Pakistan. This traumatic chapter has left an enduring impact on Indian politics at multiple levels.

The fate of Bangladeshi Hindus remains politically sensitive in India, regardless of the Hasina factor, and the issue transcends political parties, as it is deeply rooted in historical trauma and national sentiment.

"The only way forward is for Bangladesh's government to provide unequivocal assurances that it will control the mobs and protect its minorities from violence and discrimination," Ajay Bisaria, a former diplomat, told DW. "Such commitments would not only ease tensions, but could foster a more stable relationship between the two nations. This is crucial not just for the welfare of the minorities in Bangladesh, but for the broader geopolitical stability of the region."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

DW's Bangladesh department contriubted to this report 

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is one of the world's major textile producing nations. The country's 5,000 large and medium garment and textile companies supply many of the world's notable fashion brands, such as Tommy Hilfiger, Uniqlo and Calvin Klein.

Yet, its garment workforce, which is predominately female, faces widespread exploitation and gender-based violence. 

Power imbalances, a culture of silence in the workplace along with unrealistic production targets, make female workers particularly vulnerable. Many even forgo breaks in order to hit their targets. 

Upon returning home, they are still responsible for caring for their families — a dual burden that significantly impacts their physical and mental wellbeing.

Championing female workers in Indonesia

Didit Saleh and Nitya Swastika, members of Indonesia's Trade Union Rights Center (TURC), recently visited Germany to advocate for female workers' rights in Indonesia.

TURC was founded in 2004 to educate workers about trade unions and labor rights in Indonesia.

"We want to ensure that brand owners can guarantee better and fairer treatment for female workers, especially in terms of occupational health and safety," Saleh told DW.

TURC's research shows that in small villages, factory jobs with major brands are considered prestigious, leading many people to pay brokers to secure factory jobs.

The companies, which are aware of such practices, do to little to prohibit or curb the practice.

"To secure employment, some individuals are willing to pay up to 10 million Indonesian Rupiahs [$630, €598]. However, after starting work, they realize the situation is not as favorable as they had imagined," Swastika told DW.

Dual roles, double burdens for female workers

"We want the public here [in Germany] to be aware of the real situation in Indonesia. Here, brands may only have large offices, not factories with 50,000 workers," Swastika said. "Therefore they often do not know the real situation in their supplier's factories."

Swastika also highlighted the complex dimensions of violence and oppression against women. 

Research by TURC found that since most of the workers are women, many men have become unemployed or work irregular, low-income jobs. In many cases, male household members still refuse to share domestic duties, citing cultural norms.

This imbalance often leaves female workers — who often bear the dual burden of being the main breadwinner while managing household responsibilities — with limited rest and significant stress.

"As a result, female workers are not focused on their work and often experience work accidents," Swastika said, adding that they struggle to engage with unions because many union members are men.

"Even if there are female workers who wish to be active in the union, they face opposition from their partners, who object or disagree and do not allow it," she said.

Attention has been drawn to gender-based violence in Indonesia following campaigns by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and other groups.

Obstacles to female union membership

Satyawanti Mashudi, from the National Commission on Violence Against Women (Komnas Perempuan), stated on the commission's website that various trade unions have reported gender-based discrimination in the industry against female workers, particularly regarding differences in wage structures and promotions.

Female workers also face violations of their rights related to freedom of association and encounter difficulties in obtaining permission to participate in union activities for female union administrators.

There are negative perceptions regarding women joining labor unions.

"In some areas in Central Java, for instance, our research indicates that women who wish to join a labor union must first obtain permission from their husbands," Saleh said.

Another challenge is the stigma around labor unions, often viewed as left-wing and controversial. 

"So, it is considered dangerous," Saleh said. "In some areas, the labor union movement is even considered taboo."

Edited by: Keith Walker 

The latest confrontation between Philippine and Chinese vessels in disputed waters on the South China Sea took place on Wednesday, with both sides trading blame after Manila claimed that a Chinese patrol fired a water cannon and "sideswiped" a Philippine coast guard boat.

China claimed that Philippine coast guard vessels attempted to "intrude into China's territorial waters around Huangyan Island," which is what China calls Scarborough Shoal, a ring of shallow rocks about 220 kilometers (130 nautical miles) off the coast of the Philippine island of Luzon. 

China claims nearly the entire South China Sea as its maritime territory, despite a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal declaring these claims invalid under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Among other things, UNCLOS defines a country's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as extending 200 nautical miles from land. The EEZ allows a country rights to marine resources. 

For reference, Scarborough Shoal, where these confrontations frequently take place, is over 460 nautical miles (765 kilometers) from the nearest Chinese shore, on Hainan Island, and is well within the Philippine EEZ. 

However, these territorial disputes also involve other countries, chiefly Malaysia and Vietnam, both of which have claims in the South China Sea overlapping those of China and the Philippines. 

Philippine maritime laws spark regional backlash

On November 8, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act, which reaffirm Manila's maritime claims.

"These signal our resolve to protect our maritime resources, preserve our rich biodiversity, and ensure that our waters remain a source of life and livelihood for all Filipinos," Marcos said.

China quickly called the acts an "illegal ruling." The laws also imposed fixed lanes for foreign ships, prompting China to summon the Philippine ambassador.

The new legislation also angered Malaysia, whose deputy foreign minister, Mohamad Alamin, said the acts restated a territorial claim by Manila over the oil-rich Malaysian state of Sabah in northern Borneo, a dispute that dates back to colonial times.

In August, Vietnam and the Philippines agreed to deepen defense and military relations and enhance maritime security collaboration amid China's growing assertiveness in the disputed waters.

The countries are set to sign an official agreement before the end of the year, vowing to resolve disagreements peacefully under international law.

Maritime disputes between smaller countries 

Shahriman Lockman, director of special projects at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia, told DW that the Philippines' overlapping claims are "provocative" for Malaysia.

"Many people often overlook that the overlapping claims in the South China Sea are not solely between China and Southeast Asian claimants," Lockman said, "but also involve disputes among the Southeast Asian claimants themselves."

"In some ways, the Philippine claims are especially provocative for Malaysia, for they encompass the Malaysian state of Sabah in Borneo. This is not an uninhabited island but a state with nearly 4 million people and the second largest by area in Malaysia," Lockman said. "Malaysia's protests are nothing new," Locklman added. "What would be unusual is their absence."

Challenges in unified resistance against China

Lockman said each country had its own disputes, which makes it difficult for them to unite in resisting to China.

"The reality for each individual claimant varies significantly, and this highlights the issue with the world viewing the situation through a narrow lens that reduces it to a China-versus-Southeast Asia narrative," Lockman said.

Observers say Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been shifting Malaysia's allegiances toward China since taking office in 2022. 

China has been Malaysia's top trading partner since 2009, accounting for 17% of Malaysia's global trade — close to $100 billion (€95 billion) — the country's trade minister, Zafrul Aziz, said in June. 

Protecting these precious economic ties is paramount to Malaysia, and observers say that is why the country rarely opposes Beijing's claims or actions in the South China Sea, despite also having its own long-running territorial disputes with China.

"Apart from silence on the South China Sea dispute between Manila and Beijing, Malaysia has also taken a quieter approach to its own dispute with Beijing," Ian Chong, a political scientist in Singapore, said in September. 

He said that the Philippines' open defiance of China's claims contrasts with Malaysia's "muted and private responses" to the Beijing protest at Malaysia's oil exploration and Beijing's deployment of coast guard vessels off the coast of Sarawak, a Malaysian state on northern Borneo island. 

Chong said this indicated that Malaysia is "ready to pressure" countries such as the Philippines that it considers to be "relatively weaker," while being less willing to stand up to China, which offers "significant economic opportunities" 

Edited by: Keith Walker