Popular Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi was sentenced to death over his role in supporting the protest movement triggered by the death of Jina Mahsa Amini, Iranian reformist newspaper Shargh Daily reported quoting the musician's lawyer. 

"Branch 1 of Isfahan Revolutionary Court ... sentenced Toomaj Salehi to death on the charge of corruption on Earth," the singer's lawyer Amir Raisian told the newspaper. 

The charge covers a broad range of offenses including those related to Islamic morality and can carry the death penalty.

Salehi, 33, was arrested for showing support for anti-government protests, following the death of 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in September 2022. He had also written songs about the protests.

What is Salehi accused of?

The court "in an unprecedented move, emphasized its independence and did not implement the Supreme Court's ruling", Raisian said, adding that "we will certainly appeal against the sentence".

The Revolutionary Court had accused Salehi of "assistance in sedition, assembly and collusion, propaganda against the system and calling for riots", the lawyer said.

The Iranian judiciary has not confirmed the sentence yet. Salehi has 20 days to appeal the ruling.

Salehi was freed on bail on November 18, Raisian said at the time, adding the Supreme Court had found "flaws in the initial sentence" of six years in prison. The rapper was rearrested less than two weeks later.

In the months of unrest that followed Amini's death on September 16, 2022, hundreds of people were killed, including dozens of security personnel, and thousands more were arrested.

Iranian officials called the protests "riots" and accused Tehran's foreign enemies of fomenting the unrest.

dh,rm/wmr (AFP, Reuters)

North Korean state news agency KCNA reported on Wednesday that a high-level economic delegation was visiting Iran.

The rare public visit signals increased cooperation between two states that are believed to have secret military ties.

The visiting officials are led by External Economic Relations Minister Yun Jong Ho. He has been active in the country's increasing exchanges with Russia, leading a delegation to visit Moscow earlier this month, according to KCNA.

In a one-sentence dispatch, which did not provide more details, KCNA said the delegation had left for Iran on Monday.

Closer ties with Russia

The visit comes as Pyongyang bolsters its military ties with Moscow.

South Korea claims that the North has sent some 7,000 containers to Russia for its war in Ukraine. This is allegedly in exchange for Moscow's technical assistance for North Korea's budding spy satellite.

Both North Korea and Russia have denied the allegations.

Russia recently also used its United Nations Security Council veto power to disrupt UN sanctions monitoring on North Korea amid a probe into the alleged arms transfers. Kim Jong Un's regime expressed its thanks after the vote.

Iran and Russia have close military ties and are political allies. Russia has been known to use Iranian-made drones in its war in Ukraine. 

mk/sms (AFP, Reuters) 

The US Senate has passed $95 billion (€ 88.7 billion) in military aid to its allies, which includes the long-awaited $61 billion package for Ukraine, meant to help Kyiv defend itself against Russia. 

The bill passed with an overwhelming 79-18 vote late Tuesday.

What did Biden say?

US President Joe Biden said after the vote that he would sign the bill into law on Wednesday, adding that the delivery of weapons and equipment can begin "this week."

"Tonight, a bipartisan majority in the Senate joined the House to answer history's call at this critical inflection point," Biden said in a statement.

"I will sign this bill into law and address the American people as soon as it reaches my desk tomorrow so we can begin sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine this week," he said.

While the bill was expected to sail through the Democratic-majority Senate, it faced months of delays and contentious debate in the Republican-majority House of Representatives. Some conservative Republicans in the House had expressed skepticism to sending more aid to Ukraine, stalling the vote on the aid package there. 

Biden's Democratic administration is already preparing a $1 billion (€930 million) military aid package for Ukraine, the first from the bill, according to a report by Reuters news agency citing two unnamed US officials.

This includes vehicles, Stinger air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, 155-millimeter artillery ammunition, TOW and Javelin anti-tank munitions and other weapons that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield, according to the report. 

How did Ukraine respond?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday thanked the US Senate.

"I thank Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell for their strong leadership in advancing this bipartisan legislation, as well as all US Senators on both sides of the aisle who voted in favor of it," he posted on social media minutes after the bill passed. 

Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industry, said Ukrainians were eagerly awaiting the final approval of a US aid package.

"We were running out of ammunition. We were running out of air defense missiles," Sak told DW.

"Of course, this decision and this support bill will considerably improve our ability to fight back the aggressor and will send a signal of hope to our troops," he added.

"What is happening in Ukraine has already ramifications far beyond the borders of our country. And this is why it is so important that the US has made this decision." 

How did Israel respond?

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz thanked the Senate for approving the aid bill, which he said would send a "strong message" to the country's enemies.

"I thank the US Senate for passing the Israel aid package tonight with an overwhelming bipartisan majority," Katz posted on social media site X, formerly Twitter. "The Israel aid package that now passed both houses of Congress is a clear testament to the strength of our alliance and sends a strong message to all our enemies."

What else is included in the bill?

Of the $95 billion aid package, a massive $61 billion is earmarked for Ukraine's military which is facing a shortage of weapons and new recruits as Moscow exerts constant pressure from the east. 

The legislation would also send $26 billion (€ 24.3 billion) in wartime assistance to Israel and humanitarian relief to citizens of Gaza, and $8.12 billion (€ 7.58 billion) to "counter communist China" in Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. 

A fourth bill, which includes a potential ban on Chinese-controlled social media platform TikTok, measures for the transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine and new sanctions on Iran, was also passed at the same time. The four bills were packaged as one for the Senate to approve.  

mk/fb (AP, Reuters)

Turkey's leader was clear about what he thought closer cooperation with Iraq would require. Iraq must act against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which is designated as a terror organization in Turkey and also by the EU, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

On his first visit to Iraq in over a decade, Erdogan told Iraqi President Abdel Latif Rashid this week "that Iraq must be rid of all forms of terrorism."

Erdogan also met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and the two men decided upon a "strategic framework agreement" focused on security, energy, water and trade. This included a €16 billion ($17 billion) rail and road project. The two men also agreed that Turkey would buy Iraqi oil again. In total, around 24 different agreements were signed this week.

Thanks to shared projects like this, Iraq and Turkey will "build lasting cooperation in all fields," al-Sudani boasted.

Given that the two countries have had tense relations for a while this visit denotes significant progress, said Lucas Lamberty, country director for the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Iraq.

Progress in Turkey-Iraq relations?

Erdogan's meetings followed on from earlier visits by other senior Turkish politicians to Iraq, he noted. "Even just the fact that Erdogan visited at all can already be seen as a success," Lamberty told DW. "It shows that there's good will."

In the past, relations between Iraq and Turkey haven't been great. During the war in neighboring Syria, Turkey supported the rebels fighting that country's dictator Bashar Assad. Meanwhile, Iraq tended to side with the Assad regime, not least because both countries have strong alliances with Iran.

In Iraq, there are a number of Iranian-backed militias, mostly made up of local Shiite Muslims, who currently have a large impact on Iraqi politics.

One of the biggest sticking points to a more friendly relationship between Turkey and Iraq has been the presence of the PKK group in northern Iraq. The group has Kurdish roots and has sought shelter in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, on the borders of Syria, Iran and Turkey. 

The Turkish have regularly bombed what they see as PKK targets in northern Iraq without asking permission from Iraqi authorities. This has angered Iraqi and Kurdish politicians and has also resulted in civilian casualties.

Turkey always argues that if it didn't do this, then the PKK, whose militant wing has been behind extremist acts in Turkey itself, would cross the border in Turkey and cause them problems. Iraq, however, sees this as an infringement of its own territorial sovereignty.

That's why some observers were surprised when in March this year the Iraqi government conceded to long-standing Turkish demands that it ban the PKK, althouhg Iraq stopped short of designating the PKK a terror organization.

Only a few days earlier, the Turkish defense ministry had declared that it wanted to broaden operations against the PKK in northern Iraq.

"Because the majority of the PKK bases are actually in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, this also has an internal political dimension for Iraq," Lamberty explained. Iraq's Kurds have their own parliament, laws and military but are also split on how welcome they should make the PKK feel. "The government in Baghdad has taken some steps [towards Turkey], such as banning the PKK. But it remains to be seen how much further it can accommodate Turkey."

The Turkish perspective is that the Erdogan visit to Iraq is an important step in combatting the PKK, says Bilgay Duman, a researcher focused on Iraq at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Turkey. "This step is one of the [strategic framework] agreement's greatest achievements," he told DW. 

Iraq and Turkey's vital progress in water distribution

There has also been some rapprochement on another of the biggest points of contention between the two countries: water resources.

Iraq has suffered from water shortages over the past few years. Partially this is due to climate change but it also has to do with how surrounding countries dam or block water.

At the beginning of the 20th century, there was an estimated 1,350 cubic meters per second flowing through the country's rivers on average, the German magazine International Politics and Society reported in late 2023. That amount has since reduced to just 149 cubic meters per second. Tributaries of the country's largest rivers, the Euphrates, Tigris and Diyala, are particularly impacted. And Turkey has built dams on both the Tigris and Euphrates.

"We signed a framework agreement to cooperate on the issue of water, the cooperation involves common projects that will help in the improvement of water management in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers," al-Sudani said during a press conference. The agreement would be valid for 10 years, he added.

"Basically, these agreements are welcome," the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Lamberty told DW. "The talks didn't really bring any complete solutions. However, the agreements are going to spark a process, and that process will tackle remaining challenges."

Given the complicated relationship that was there before this meeting took place, both sides can claim this week's events as a win, Turkish analyst Duman said.

"Turkeys priority is the fight against the PKK. Iraq's priority is water," he explained. " Now that both sides agree on these two points, we can view these agreements as having a mutual benefit."

Still, from the perspective of the Iraqi government, a solution to the country's chronic water shortage has yet to be found. Iraq's government is simply too weak to assert its own interests against Turkey, concludes Baghdad-based political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari.

Elmas Topcu and Alla Ahmed contributed to this article. It was originally published in German. 

The Israeli economy is showing signs of a return to normality despite the strain the war against Hamas has put on it.

Although official economic data for the first three months of 2024 has yet to be released by the government, recent labor market data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and credit card transaction data from the Bank of Israel suggest the country's economy is rebounding from the shock of the October 7 terror attacks and the war that has followed.

Israel's economy suffered a major contraction in the final quarter of 2023, following the terrorist attacks. Its economy shrank by 5.2% compared with the previous quarter. Much was related to the labor force disruption which resulted when around 300,000 reservists were called up to the country's armed forces.

However, Benjamin Bental, professor of economics at the University of Haifa, says the labor market is finally recovering from the sudden departure of so many workers and small business owners from the economy.

"The labor market is really stabilizing quite rapidly," he told DW. "It's not yet at its pre-war level but formal unemployment is actually 1% lower than it was in September 2023."

The ongoing return of some reservists has improved the labor situation while the strong credit card data suggests returning consumer optimism after a big slump in late 2023.

However, Bental said certain sectors remain severely affected by labor shortages, particularly construction. That is largely because the industry was heavily dependent on Palestinian workers coming from the Israeli-occupied West Bank who are now unable to travel to their jobs in Israel due to the security situation.

Around 75,000 Palestinians used to commute daily to Israel for construction work from the West Bank. Their absence brought building work to an almost complete halt, as residential construction fell by 95% in late 2023.

The sector has recovered somewhat since Israel brought in thousands of workers from India, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan to resume construction work, but the full picture won't be clear until first-quarter data is released.

Israel's budget deficit

The war forced the Israeli government to dramatically ramp up spending, with a surge in defense expenditure as well as reconstruction costs associated with the Hamas attacks and the cost of re-housing tens of thousands of Israelis displaced in the north and south of the country.

Israel announced an amended state budget for 2024 last month of 584 billion shekels ($160 billion, €144 billion). The budget was initially reported as setting a deficit of 6.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, up from a pre-war level of 2.25%. However, Benjamin Bental says it's already clear that this is a significant underestimate and that a deficit of 8% looks more realistic.

"This is what looks more or less reasonable, assuming that there is no further deterioration of the security situation," he said, referring to current tensions with Iran.

There is obvious pressure on government finances. It plans to raise about $60 billion (€56 billion) in debt this year, as well as increasing taxes, but it insists it has the capacity.

"The economic fundamentals are there," Yali Rothenberg, the finance ministry's accountant general, told the Financial Times ahead of the amended budget announcement. "If you look at the high-tech sector, it's there. If you look at the infrastructure investment, it's there. If you look at the private consumption, it's there."

Learning from past conflicts

Before the attacks on October 7 by the militant Islamist Hamas group, Israel's economy was in good shape. "The economy was performing remarkably well," said Bental. "Inflation was coming down and the entire monetary situation was under very good control."

He pointed out that Israel was headed for growth of 3.5% before the attacks in 2023, and that it still managed growth of 2% for the year despite the final quarter shock.

He stressed that on the streets of cities such as Tel Aviv or Haifa, there is little evidence of a war economy or any sense of shortage or deprivation. However, he cautioned that Israel's experience of how previous wars and security crises impacted the economy should guide the current leadership.

Bental is worried about excessive spending on defense, for example. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel had dramatically ramped up defense expenditure to the point where it reached a "totally unsustainable" 30% of GDP. Combined with the oil crisis and wider global economic crisis of the time, the conflict "led to a real disaster economically" for Israel, where "you have very high inflation and basically no growth for almost 10 years."

According to Bental, the Second Intifada of the Palestinians, which took place between 2000 and 2005, had more similarities to the present conflict in that it involved civilians.

"You can learn a little bit about the damage that is caused by the loss of confidence of the civilian population and the loss of the sense of security during that particular episode," he said. "And there are estimates that over these years, let's say three, four years, the Israeli GDP lost about 10% just because of that"

Another example he gave is the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah and Lebanon — a conflict that showed how quickly the economy can recover once the fighting stops.

"We're talking about a situation where for basically a month, the northern region of Israel was not functioning," he noted. "But when you look at the data and you look for any traces of this, you won't find it. This is really amazing. The economy, once this was over, recuperated in no time."

Bental hopes that this will be the case when the current conflict ends and suggests the recent signs of recovery point toward that very situation.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Only a week after a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, it was business as usual for Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Accompanied by his wife and family, he appeared in public at the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, taking part in prayers and walking the city streets.

If he seemed unperturbed by the fact that a foreign power had apparently killed several high ranking generals in his capital just a few days earlier, that was on purpose, says Haid Haid, a consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House.

"The [Assad] photo op was not accidental. It's part of a wider campaign to show that business is proceeding as usual," Haid said during a Chatham House panel on the topic this week. "I think the message was that Syria will not be part of any retaliation for the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate and Syria will not be the main theater for that response."

That's not surprising, Haid said. "Because from the beginning of the war in Gaza, Assad has been distancing himself from regional escalation and portraying himself as neutral."

There are a number of reasons for this. Due to the long-running Syrian civil war, local military would not be equipped to respond anyway, the Syrian economy is in tatters, and political neutrality on Gaza could serve the Assad regime well in foreign policy terms.

Syrian transit route for Iran

The Syrian regime's attitude comes despite the fact that Israel has actually been attacking sites in Syria for over a decade. In 2012, the Iranian government became involved in the Syrian civil war, helping to defeat opposition forces. In return, Syria has been useful to Iran, offering a land corridor to transport equipment and fighters towards Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the most powerful of the various military proxies that Iran supports around the region, is based in Lebanon and is also present in Syria. Both Iran and Hezbollah consider Israel and the US enemies.

Iran's growing presence in Syria has concerned the Israeli military. They're worried about the build-up of Iranian troops and infrastructure nearer their own borders. This is why Israel has regularly targeted Syrian infrastructure.

"Israel's primary interest in Syria is to prevent a strategic Iranian military presence across Syria, including Iranian construction of military infrastructure and cultivation of local partner forces," think tank International Crisis Group explains in its online monitoring of the conflict. "Israel has carried out more than 100 strikes on convoys and warehouses serving Hezbollah's Syrian supply lines."

After late 2017, the pace of Israeli attacks picked up, Crisis Group noted. Observers say Israeli attacks were happening on an almost weekly basis.

Why doesn't Syria retaliate?

Given that it's still dealing with an ongoing hangover from its long running civil war and more concerned about its own survival, the Syrian government has not been in any real position to respond to Israel. If it did, it was usually with rockets that landed on empty ground, analysts have noted. And Israel didn't often target Syrian assets anyway; it was more likely to shoot at Iranian objects.

However since the October 7 attack on Israel by the Gaza-based militant Hamas group, designated as a terrorist group by the US, EU and others, Israeli strikes on Syria have become even more frequent. And whereas in the past, Israel mostly avoided killing Iranian or Hezbollah operatives, this has now changed, Chatham House expert Haid wrote in a commentary earlier in April.

"The change in Israel's transnational strategy — from merely targeting Iran's affiliates to directly eliminating Iranian leadership in Syria — was prompted by the October 7 attacks and Israel's apparent dissatisfaction with the limitations and failures of its containment strategy," he explained.

Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, has spoken about plans to expand a campaign against the Lebanon-based military arm of Hezbollah. "We will reach wherever the organization operates, in Beirut, Damascus and in more distant places," Gallant told Israeli media in late March.

That peaked with the alleged Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven people, including senior Iranian military officers and Hezbollah members. This led to Iranian retaliation on April 13, the first direct rocket and missile attack on Israel.

The fear of more direct attacks by Israel and Iran on one another seems to have been quelled for now. However, experts all agree that indirect attacks are likely to continue.

"The conventional wisdom in policy circles is that attacks in Syria are low cost," says Dareen Khalifa, a senior advisor at International Crisis Group, referring to the fact that Syria tends not to react to such attacks.

"So in that sense, I think we are going to continue to see Syria being a launchpad for attacks from Iranian-backed proxies in the country; it's also going to continue to be a rear base for them. And as such Israel is going to continue its attacks on Iranian assets in Syria," she concludes.

However just because it's happening in Syria doesn't mean it can't lead to further regional escalation, Khalifa warns.

"What we've been seeing is an incremental escalation regionally. Every actor has quantitatively and qualitatively escalated their tit-for-tat attacks. But thinking these [attacks] are low cost, doesn't mean other parties are going to see it the same way," she explains.

"There's very little margin for error or miscalculation." That's something the Iranian embassy attack in Damascus has already shown, she noted.

Edited by: Andreas Illmer

Numerous media outlets are reporting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to announce sanctions against a battalion of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The unit, known as Netzah Yehuda (Judea Forever), has been accused of human rights violations against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

According to the Associated Press news agency, the US has been investigating five army units for serious human rights violations. These sanctions, however, would only apply to this unit, imposing two restrictions: Firstly, no US military aid would go to Netzah Yehuda; secondly, its participation in training programs financed by the US would be limited. The Israeli government has already declared that it will oppose the sanctions.

What is Netzah Yehuda?

The Netzah Yehuda battalion was established in the late 1990s as a special religious unit, with specific conditions to facilitate military service for ultra-orthodox Jews (Haredim). The men are given time for prayer and religious studies, their food is kosher, and contact with female soldiers is very limited. The battalion is part of the Kfir Infantry Brigade, which says it numbers around 1,000 soldiers in total. The majority of the ultra-orthodox community opposes compulsory military service, making this a contentious issue.

Many of the soldiers in the battalion joined voluntarily because Haredim have always been exempt from military service in Israel. Those who attended a yeshiva (a religious school) up to a certain age, for instance, cannot be called up into the IDF.

However, more and more politicians are calling for the rule to be changed. Israel's Supreme Court ruled back in 1998 that it was discriminatory. And since October 2023, with the start of the war in Gaza against the militant group Hamas — which the US, EU, and others designate a terrorist group — thousands of Haredim have volunteered for military service.

Rallying point for radical settlers?

The unit is made up of both ultra-orthodox and religious-nationalist Israelis. These include radical settlers from the occupied West Bank who have close ties to the parties of right-wing extremist government ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. According to the US news website Axios, more and more of the so-called "Hilltop Youth" have joined the battalion over the years. This group consists of young, radical, sometimes violent settlers. Just last week, the EU sanctioned the Hilltop Youth for their attacks on Palestinians.

Netzah Yehuda was originally stationed in the occupied West Bank, but it was relocated to northern Israel at the end of 2022. The battalion has now also been deployed in the war in the Gaza Strip.

What exactly is the battalion accused of?

The Times of Israel reports that Netzah Yehuda has been linked to right-wing extremism and violence against Palestinians. According to the Axios website, the battalion first came to the attention of the US government in 2022, with incidents of violence against Palestinian civilians.

Members of the battalion are said to have detained an almost 80-year-old man, Omar Assad, and kept him bound and gagged for hours. Assad, a Palestinian-American, died a few hours later of a stress-induced heart attack. As reported by the Washington Post and other outlets, an autopsy found that this was likely brought on by his being manhandled.

The IDF condemned the incident at the time, describing it as a "moral failure," and a poor decision on the part of those responsible. Two officers were dismissed and a third was reprimanded, but no criminal charges were brought.

The incident attracted attention because of the man's dual nationality, his advanced age, and because the US called for an investigation. However, human rights activists can cite numerous other cases of alleged mistreatment and torture of Palestinians.

How has Israel reacted?

The Israeli government has expressed outrage at reports of impending sanctions. On Saturday evening, President Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X (formerly Twitter): "Sanctions must not be imposed on the Israel Defense Forces!" and declaring that his government was working to prevent any such measures. His post continued: "At a time when our soldiers are fighting the monsters of terror, the intention to impose sanctions on an IDF unit is the height of absurdity and a moral low."

The Israeli military has stated that it is not aware of any sanctions against any of its units, and said: "If a decision is made on the matter, it will be reviewed."

Is the US considering further sanctions?

Sanctions against the Israeli army are a new development, but the US has previously imposed sanctions against Israel, such as recently against extremist settlers, and against the right-wing extremist Bentzi Gopstein, an ally of Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right minister for national security.

The US also put on its sanctions list two organizations that provide financial support for sanctioned extremist settlers. Their assets in the US have been blocked. US citizens and others in the US are also forbidden from engaging in any transactions with sanctioned organizations and individuals.

This article has been translated from German.

Iran is "weeks rather than months" away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told DW.

"But that does not mean that Iran has or would have a nuclear weapon in that space of time," he added.

He said that although uranium enrichment at near weapons-grade levels is a cause for alarm, one cannot draw the direct conclusion that Iran now has a nuclear weapon. 

"A functional nuclear warhead requires many other things independently from the production of the fissile material," Grossi said.

He also said Iran's objectives are "a matter of speculation." 

The Iranian public line is that this fissile material is needed for medical or civilian purposes.

IAEA still seeking more access in Iran

Grossi said the IAEA is not getting the level of access he believes it needs in Iran, which he said added more to the speculation around Tehran's nuclear program. 

"I have been telling my Iranian counterparts time and again [...] this activity raises eyebrows and compounded with the fact that we are not getting the necessary degree of access and visibility that I believe should be necessary," he said. 

"When you put all of that together, then, of course, you end up with lots of question marks."

Grossi highlighted unresolved IAEA findings, including traces of enriched uranium in unexpected locations, exacerbating doubts about Iran's transparency.

"This has been at the center of this dialogue that I have been and I am still trying to conduct with Iran." 

Nuclear threats 'absolutely deplorable'

Turning to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Grossi condemned any notion of attacking nuclear facilities.

"Attacking nuclear facilities is an absolute no-go," he said.

Grossi noted a worrying trend of the threat of nuclear attack or nuclear weapons being dropped.

"So I believe that this normalization of talk about nuclear weapons, dropping nuclear weapons, getting nuclear weapons is absolutely deplorable," he added.

Reacting to reports of talks between the United States and Iran, the IAEA chief said his agency always tries to promote dialogue. 

"And what I am interested in is the dialogue between us, the IAEA and Iran, because there are many things that need to be clarified, and it is for this that we are going to be traveling to Tehran soon," he said.

Grossi said his message to the Iranians would be that Iran should cooperate more. 

"I will be there to try to put these things back on track if they want to be believed," he added.

This text was based on a DW News interview conducted by Biresh Banerjee.

Edited by: Farah Bahgat

On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) witnessed the heaviest rainfall it had seen in 75 years. Some regions on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula reported more rainfall in a single day than they usually receive in an entire year.

In Dubai, the UAE's most populous city, floods brought traffic to a halt, flights at Dubai International, one of the world's busiest airports, were canceled and roofs collapsed under the sheer weight of the water.

Neighboring Oman also experienced unprecedented amounts of rain, which resulted in the death of at least 20 people and extensive property damage.

Social media platforms are buzzing with theories regarding what could have caused such a catastrophic downpour.

Claim: "Cloud seeding [...] goes wrong," wrote one user on X, formerly Twitter. An Instagram account even  asked whether cloud seeding could have caused the floods in Dubai, or at least worsened them. Many users seem to believe the answer is "yes."

DW fact check: False

Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique used to induce rainfall. Often aircraft are used to disperse substances such as certain insoluble salts into the air, to attract moisture that then falls to the ground in droplets. It's frequently used around the world to bring about rain in arid areas, or to prevent the buildup of hail.

Satellite images show massive storm clouds gathering over the southeastern tip of the Arabian Peninsula in the days running up to the heavy rainfall. The cloud formations would thus have set the stage for cloud seeding, if this was used.

Harvesting rain in the UAE

The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) in Abu Dhabi, the capital, has conducted research into cloud seeding technologies since the late 1990s. The desert nation employs cloud seeding to increase precipitation and, by extension, the amount of available freshwater.

The US news agency Bloomberg initially reported that cloud seeding by the NCM had intensified the rainfall, but UAE officials have denied taking any such measures. DW contacted the NCM but had not received a response by the time this article was published.

However, a response did come from a research team at the University of Hohenheim in southern Germany, which is currently running a joint project with the NCM. Team member and meteorologist Oliver Branch wrote that he was unaware of any cloud seeding operations earlier in the week.

Branch added that it was completely unrealistic to imagine that cloud seeding could produce such heavy rainfall. "The probability of a connection between cloud seeding activity and the flooding in Dubai is close to zero," he said.

Various media outlets, including Bloomberg, cited similar opinions by experts.

Is global warming amplifying extreme weather patterns?

Claim: One social media user wrote on X that "[t]he effects of global warming and climate change [are] alarming and won't spare any city." Another user put it more pointedly: "THIS is the man made #climatechange."

DW fact check: It's complicated

Most climate scientists do see a link between climate change and heavy rainfall. "In many cases, global warming does play a role in extreme weather patterns," Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, told DW in an interview in late 2023.

Asked about the recent events in Dubai, she told the news agency AFP that it was "highly likely" global warming had made the rain heavier and more destructive.

There's a simple explanation for this: the warmer the air, the more moisture it can absorb. That's why it rains more heavily in tropical latitudes than in does in temperate zones such as Germany. In Central Europe, rainfall is much heavier in the summertime than in midwinter.

Many climatologists agree global warming is making extreme weather events more frequent and more severe. But, like Sjoukje Philip, a climate scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, many point out that "extreme weather has always existed and will always exist."

False claims regarding global warming and cloud seeding often arise when heavy rainfall leads to flooding, especially in regions that are more accustomed to droughts, such as California, Australia or Turkey.

This article was originally published in German.

"It seems that the American media have been dreaming of an Israeli attack on Iran," Hossein Dalirian, spokesman for the Iranian Space Agency, posted on social media Friday morning after explosions were reported near the city of Isfahan. 

He added that Iranian air defense systems had shot down three small drones that morning. "Nowhere in the world would this be called an attack," the post said.

Earlier, US broadcasters CNN and CBS News had reported, citing a high-ranking US government representative, that Israel had carried out a military strike in Iran.

The purported strike on Friday was in response to Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel last weekend, The Washington Post reported, quoting an unnamed Israeli government official.

In retaliation for a missile attack on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles on April 14. According to Israeli reports, almost all the drones and missiles launched by Iran were intercepted.

All quiet in Isfahan?

On Friday morning, three explosions were reportedly heard in the vicinity of a large military airfield near the central Iranian city of Isfahan, state media in Iran reported. Isfahan is home to various military targets, as well as parts of Iran's nuclear facilities.

It is not yet clear what happened in Isfahan. Scenes broadcast on state media from the city on Friday morning showed people going about their business as usual.  

Friday is Iran's only day of the week off work and the streets were almost empty: people were shown walking through parks. Traffic was described as normal, and the airport is also said to have reopened after flights were briefly canceled or suspended early Friday.

Isfahan is home to a nuclear research center. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on Friday in Vienna that no nuclear facilities in Iran had been damaged.

In television interviews, Iranian authorities emphasized that air defense systems had intercepted three drones. There were no reports of a missile attack.

The drones are said to have been mini quadcopters, similar to those used to carry out an attack on an airbase in western Iran in February 2022, in which numerous Iranian Air Force drones were destroyed.

The use of modern technology in the "shadow war" between Iran and Israel is nothing new. In November 2020, Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fachrisadeh was killed near Tehran by a remote-controlled killer robot.

Strict control of social media

There are hardly any photos of citizen journalists from Isfahan online. Since the beginning of the week, the Revolutionary Guard's secret service has been taking action against anyone who expresses criticism of the Islamic Republic's policy towards Israel.

Many ordinary Iranians are afraid of a possible war between Iran and Israel. In private conversations, many emphasize that they have no sympathy for the government's hostile policy towards Israel.

On Sunday, April 14, immediately after the attack on Israel, the Revolutionary Guard Intelligence Service published a message in state media calling on all residents of the country to report "any solidarity" with Israel on social networks as soon as possible.

In recent days, numerous activists and journalists have reported that they have been called, warned, or even threatened by anonymous people to ensure that they neither hurt the "feelings of the nation" online nor criticize Iran's policy on Israel.

As tensions continue, Iran is in the midst of an information war — finding accurate information from within the country remains difficult.

This article was originally written in German

As the United States and European Union (EU) consider new economic measures against Iran, the Islamic Republic is touting its resilience to Western boycotts. According to the government in Tehran, the country has exported more oil than ever in the last six years, despite massive sanctions imposed by former US president Donald Trump in 2018.

Last month, Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji said oil exports had "generated more than $35 billion [€32.8 billion]" in 2023. The British business daily Financial Times quoted him as saying that while Iran's enemies wanted to stop its exports, "today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts."

To Iran's regime, the billions of dollars in oil revenue are instrumental in maintaining acquiescence at home. Much of the population is suffering the impact of international sanctions, which have led to a depreciation of the national currency, the rial.

Soaring inflation

Iranian inflation reached new heights recently, climbing to about 40% in February. Any exacerbation due to escalating geopolitical tensions will only stoke consumer prices further, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economics professor at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, told DW.

He also noted that the US dollar had gained about 15% against the Iranian rial in recent weeks, amid expectations of heightened conflict with Israel.

"This exchange rate devaluation very quickly translates into higher prices, because Iran imports a lot of types of commodities, and many of the commodities it produces inside Iran also have an import component," the Middle East expert said, adding that the country is "bracing for higher inflation."

According to Salehi-Isfahani, the living standard of Iran's middle class has also steeply declined in recent years and is now "back to 20 years ago."

Oil: the main moneymaker

According to German data provider Statista, the most important contributor to Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was the services sector with 47%, followed by industry (40%), and agriculture (12.5%).

Most of the industrial sector's revenue comes from the oil industry, with more than 90% of crude oil being shipped to China. Western sanctions have had little impact on Iran's oil trade with Beijing, but Iranian leaders are increasingly concerned that oil installations could become the target of an Israeli military attack.

After the initial shock following Trump's 2018 sanctions, Iran has returned to 80% of its former export volume. Most experts attribute this to the easing of sanctions since US President Joe Biden took office.

"Iran's economy has indeed grown, in part due to the increase in oil exports... the GDP increase amounts to about 5% per year, which is not bad compared to what happened in the region overall after the COVID-19 pandemic," Salehi-Isfahani said. He added that many financial resources had been invested in expanding the military and other regime-stabilizing measures.

Corruption and lack of transparency

In Iran, significant amounts of state income are said to disappear into the opaque structures of the government in Tehran. The Corruption Perception Index by international organization Transparency International ranks Iran in place 149 of 180 countries.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — a paramilitary elite force within the armed forces — and numerous religious organizations reportedly control central parts of the economy. They do not pay taxes, nor do they have to submit balance sheets. They are primarily answerable to Iran's head of state and commander-in-chief, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Although oil export revenues have increasingly stabilized in recent years, Iran is anything but an economic heavyweight contender. With a population of around 88 million, it is almost ten times larger than Israel, home to 9 million. Yet its GDP in 2022 was significantly lower, ending the year at $413 billion, compared to Israel's $525 billion.

Protecting the oil industry

Iran's ability to sustain a war with Israel very much depends on whether new Western sanctions can significantly reduce Iranian oil exports.

In the first three months of the year, Tehran managed to sell an average of 1.56 million barrels (one barrel is about 159 liters, or 35 gallons) of crude oil per day. Almost all of this went to China. According to the data provider Vortexa, this was the highest volume since the third quarter of 2018.

Fernando Ferreira, head of the geopolitical risk service of the Rapidan Energy Group in the US, told Financial Times that "Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention."

"If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China," he added.

So, is the Iranian economy currently prepared for a possible military escalation with Israel?

Salehi-Isfahani thinks that Iran "is not ready" to sustain an extended military conflict, "which is why they have been very careful not to get too involved in the Gaza war. Rather than intending to do harm, the attack they made on Israel was more symbolic."

This article was originally written in German.

In case of an extended armed conflict between Israel and Iran, Israel would have to reckon with factors that are difficult to assess.

The most pressing aspect is whether Iran's non-state allies would take part in such a conflict.

Iran's most important ally in the Middle East is the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Furthermore, the Houthi militia in Yemen and a number of Shiite militias in Iraq could also become involved or be recruited by Iran as military supporters.

"Israel has been long preparing for the risk of such a multifront war," Arye Sharuz Shalicar, a spokesperson for the Israeli army, told DW.

The focus has been on three aspects in particular, he said.

Firstly, the expansion of defense systems, especially air defense systems such as Iron Dome, Patriot, David's Sling (also known as Magic Wand) and the Arrow system.

"At the same time, offensive capabilities are being continuously developed," said Shalicar, adding that "defense alone might not be sufficient but according to the motto 'attack is the best defense', a counterattack could be a necessary step."

And as a third measure, he added, Israel is working on a broad regional and international alliance.

Comparable army strength

According to the Global Firepower Index 2024, the Israeli and Iranian militaries are not too far apart in terms of overall military power.

Iran is ranked 14th in the global ranking, followed by Israel in 17th place.

The index has also included a direct comparison of the two armed forces. According to this, Iran is superior to Israel in terms of personnel. The same also applies to the number of tanks and armed vehicles.

However, given the geographical situation, these are not the most relevant factors in case of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran.

The states are separated by neighboring countries such as Iraq and Jordan, and the distance between Jerusalem and Tehran is around 1,850 kilometers (1,149 miles).

"In fact, a conflict would not take the form of a classic war, but would rather be an exchange of blows over long distances," said Fabian Hinz, Middle East expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, or IISS.

An armed conflict between Israel and Iran would primarily be conducted by air, he added.

Air forces play an important role

Israel is clearly superior to Iran in terms of air power, according to the Global Firepower Index. In total, the Israeli army is equipped with 612 fighter jets, while Iran has 551.

Beyond the figures, it's also the quality of the military aircraft that matters, Hinz told DW.

In case of a conflict, aviation will play a very important, perhaps even the decisive role for Israel, he said.

"On the Iranian side, however, aircraft do not have a noteworthy significance, as it has hardly been possible to renew the fleet due to sanctions," he said, adding that Iran was able to buy some aircraft in the 1990s and would now like to acquire some Russian-made planes.

"But basically they know that they can't keep up with the Israeli air force," Hinz said.

This is why Tehran has focused primarily on the development of missiles and drones. However, it's questionable how well these could fend off an Israeli air attack. "I assume that this would not be particularly successful," Hinz said, adding that "Iran does not have a serious defense shield."

Absolute protection impossible

Nevertheless, the recent Iranian drone and missile attacks have revealed where Israel needs to make improvements, said Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert at the Israeli think tank Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

"In principle, it's rather easy to shoot down such drones, because they're not very speedy," he told DW, adding that this could be even done with simple machine guns.

However, it isn't only the type of drone but also the number that matters.

"On Sunday night [April 14, when Iran attacked Israel — Editor's note] it became clear that you also have to be able to fend off an attack by a large number of drones and Israel must be prepared for this," Grinberg said.

Some of the missiles were brought down by Israel's allies.

The Iranian attack has also demonstrated that there is no such thing as a hermetically sealed system, said army spokesman Shalicar.

"Whether 300 or 3,000 missiles are fired, ultimately some will always penetrate the defense shield which is why the hit rate at the weekend was not 100%, but around 99%," he said. "This makes it all the more important to have a functioning civil homeland defense system, in other words an early warning system and air raid shelters."

Potential game changer: Hezbollah

However, an armed conflict with the Lebanon-based Hezbollah would be a different kind of military challenge for Israel.

Hezbollah, often referred to as the "spearhead of Iran," is probably the most heavily armed non-state group in the world, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The EU has classified the military wing of Hezbollah, which has repeatedly attacked Israel with rockets, as a terrorist organization.

Estimates of Hezbollah's rocket stock vary between 120,000 and 200,000 and, according to the CSIS study, Iran would be able to quickly supply the Hezbollah militia in the event of war.

The majority of its arsenal consists of unguided short-range projectiles, though the militia has also greatly improved its access to long-range missiles, said Hinz.

In addition, the group could also attack from Syrian territory, he added.

"This means a large part of Israel will be threatened by Hezbollah attacks in the event of an escalation of the conflict," he said.

Israel would be able to use the Iron Dome system against missile attacks from Lebanon, Hinz said, adding that "in general, these defense systems are always ready for use and they work extremely well, however, the number of rockets remain the main problem in my view."

This article was originally written in German and translated by Jennifer Holleis.

Israel has vowed a response to Iran's massive missile and drone attack over the weekend, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a meeting of Israel's war cabinet on Wednesday that the country will do "everything necessary to defend itself."

In the early hours of Sunday morning, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in an unprecedented strike launched directly from Iranian territory. Almost all of the drones, rockets and cruise missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israeli air defenses with the help of the US, UK, and several Arab countries.

Iran has said the attack was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria that killed several high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards.

As Israel considers its options, Iran is warning that "the slightest action" by Israel against "Iran's interests" will result in a "harsh, comprehensive and painful response."

Both German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron were in Israel on Wednesday and urged Netanyahu to show restraint and keep the situation from escalating out of control.

The US has urged Israel against a military response that would lead to further escalation and, instead, has announced plans to tighten sanctions on Iran. The EU has also announced similar sanction plans.

Western countries are not alone in seeking de-escalation. Several countries have Iran's ear and could play a role in moderating how Tehran responds to any retaliatory action by Israel.

Qatar

According to the Iranian presidential office, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi spoke to Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Tuesday.

During the call, Iranian media reported that Raisi said, "The slightest action against Iran's interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response."

Iran and Qatar maintain close diplomatic relations, and both provide support for the Islamist militant group Hamas that is based in Gaza, which is designated as a terror organization by Israel, the US, Germany, and several other countries.

Working with the approval of the Israeli government, Qatar is one of the most important donors of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and is considered an important mediator between Israel and Hamas. Under Qatari mediation, Israel and Hamas agreed on a brief ceasefire and prisoner exchange in November 2023.

Oman

The Sultanate operates below the public radar and has long played a crucial role as a mediator between Iran and the US.

Without Oman, the agreements reached in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program over the last two decades would have been inconceivable. The country is also campaigning on the Arabian Peninsula for the release of American and European prisoners in Iran.

The New York Times reports that the US government has been seeking talks with the Iranian authorities via the Sultanate of Oman and Switzerland since last weekend. The US and Iran have no diplomatic relations so contact must be established via third countries.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, historically Iran's regional adversary and a close ally of the US, is also keen to prevent the situation from escalating further, as the country relies on oil exports, which would be jeopardized by a full-scale war.

It was not until 2023 that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were normalized through the mediation of China. Both countries exchanged ambassadors again, focused on increased trade and even discussed defense cooperation.

However, Saudi Arabia is also unable to exert any direct influence on Iran due to its history and has instead expressed hope that China can play a role in bringing the situation in the Middle East back to normality.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, this week, according to China's Global Times newspaper.

Wang said China was "willing to work together with Saudi Arabia to prevent further escalation of confrontation" in the Middle East, the report said.

China

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China has condemned the strike on the Iranian consular building in Damascus as a "serious violation of international law," adding the current situation presents a "choice between deterioration and normalization," the Global Times reported.

Officials in Beijing have made similar statements calling for de-escalation in state media.

And there is reason to believe Iran would take China's input into consideration. China is Iran's most important trading partner, an both countries also cooperate militarily.

Foreign Minister Wang and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had a phone conversation on Monday, during which Yang called for restraint.

Wang added that China condemned the missile attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus in the United Nations Security Council.  However, no agreement on a condemnation was reached by the UN body itself.

"China does not want the situation in the Middle East to spiral out of control. The country is already facing rising transportation costs and a drastic increase in energy supply risks," James Dorsey, a political scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told the Singaporean newspaper Zaobao.

However, Dorsey added that China lacks communication channels with Israel. "The only thing China can do is appeal to Israel, together with the international community, to avoid escalation and react with restraint."

Russia

Russia has traditionally maintained good political relations with Israel, Palestinian groups, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Following the recent strikes, Moscow demanded restraint from both Israel and Iran.

The Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, emphasized on Monday in a conversation with the head of the Israeli National Security Council, Zachi Ha-Negbi, the need for "restraint on all sides of the conflict in the Middle East in order to prevent an escalation."

Patrushev emphasized that Russia's position is that tensions between Israel and Iran should be settled "exclusively by political and diplomatic means," according to Russian news agencies.

Russia has long been considered a close ally of Iran, with Tehran and Moscow expanding their cooperation under US sanctions. Iran also supplies drones to the Russian army, which are used against Ukraine.

The increasing tension between Iran and Israel is diverting attention away from the war in Ukraine, and it is questionable whether Russia is interested in de-escalation in the Middle East.

"Anything that leads to an increase in energy prices, especially higher oil prices, is beneficial for Russia, at least in the short term and even in the medium term," David Sharp, an Israeli military expert, told DW. 

"But if Iran were involved in a major war and a war were waged against Iran, it would theoretically be possible to restrict Iranian arms supplies to Russia," he added.

Turkey

Turkey has supported the Palestinian position since the early days of the Middle East conflict. Last week, Ankara even announced economic sanctions against Israel. At the same time, the Turkish government also fears further tension and violence between Iran and Israel. It has called on both parties to exercise restraint.

"Unlike other countries in the region, such as Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has a long land border with Iran," said Gulru Gezer, diplomat and director of foreign policy at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV).

"Possible instability in neighboring Iran could have serious consequences for Turkey, especially with regard to migration from Iran. Unfortunately, Turkey had to experience this with the wars in Syria and Iraq," Gezer told DW.

This article was originally written in German

With additonal reporting by: Cathrin Schaer, Yun-Ching Chang, Olga Tikhomirova, Gülsen Solaker, Wesley Rahn 

The jailing of 12 Shiite Muslim men in Saudi Arabia has highlighted the dangers for fans who want to travel for sporting events such as the World Cup, according to human rights campaigners and an exiled Saudi Shiite.

The men were summoned, along with more than 100 other fans, for questioning after being filmed singing a religious song celebrating the birth of Imam Ali, an important figure in the Shiite Muslim faith at a match between their team, Al Safa, and Al Bukiryah in January. Those 12 jailed have received sentences of either six months or a year, though with little oversight from international bodies of the Saudi prison or legal system, sentence lengths are not always respected.

The men were penalized under the kingdom's cybercrime laws, provisions of which are often used to punish those who commit supposed offences offine too. Many observers of Saudi Arabia consider these laws to be arbitrary, thereby allowing the state, ruled by de facto leader crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, to use them to clamp down on groups and beliefs which do not align with its own.

Freedom of expression under threat

"These laws have egregious sentences for basic freedom of expression issues," Joey Shea, Saudi Arabia researcher for Human Rights Watch, told DW. "Anything that can be interpreted as destabilizing the state or insulting the country's leaders can come with very big sentences that can be meted out. And, ultimately, it can be a political decision to decide which fans and which speech is cracked down upon. It's a really terrifying scenario."

In recent years, these laws have been used to hand out decades-long jail sentences, or even death sentences, for sending tweets deemed to be critical of the country's leadership.

In the case of the Al Safa fans, the offense appears to be celebrating their religion. The club is based in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, where most of the country's minority Shiite population is based. Shiites, as followers of that branch of Islam are known, have long been persecuted in Sunni majority Saudi Arabia and have no representation in positions of power. When Bin Salman came to power and promised to modernize the country, Shiites like Taha Alhajji hoped for an improvement in their circumstances.

"There was a period of optimism for the Shiite community that the situation would be better and would be less harsh on them, so they could practice their rituals," Alhajji, who now works as a lawyer in Germany after fleeing his homeland, told DW. "It is clear that the new government's approach is pretending to accept the others. But the reality is that it has imposed more and more severe restrictions, whether on religious rituals or on freedom of belief."

Human Rights organizations are unable to gain access to Saudi prisons but Shea said that accounts from those who have been released suggest the 12 men will face "general neglect and dire conditions” without access to medical care or contact with their families.

Sports ministry sack club board

Alhajji, who offers legal advice to the European Saudi Organization for Human Rights, said the men have the right to an appeal but, given the courts are effectively operated by the government, that is unlikely to succeed. He rejects the notion that they have comitted a criminal offense. "The chants did not contain any provocation, incitement, abuse, or aggression against any person," he said.

The Saudi authorities clearly disagree, and have sacked the entire board of Al Safa. In a statement, the country's sports ministry said the club had broken article 36/3 of its rulebook and committed "practices, or actions that are inconsistent with public order, public morals, or regulations" before adding that it would "refer them to the relevant authorities to take the necessary action." The likelihood is that they will replace them with representatives more favorable to the government, but there has yet to be any public announcement.

Saudi Arabia's huge investment in sport has turned the eyes of the world towards the oil-rich Gulf state. So far, most large sporting events have passed off without a hitch for the handful of international fans that travel. But the football World Cup, in 2034, is likely to be a bigger test. Fans used to total freedom of expression will travel in greater numbers, while players, coaches and administrators have also shown some willingness to take on politically sensitive topics, such as the rainbow armband or the German team's gesture of covering their mouths to draw attention to the lack of freedom of speech in Qatar during the 2022 World Cup. For Shea, this could lead to serious issues.

'Not safe to attend football matches'

"It is absolutely not safe to attend a football match in Saudi Arabia and express any form of political opinion that is not just uncritical support of Mohammed bin Salman," Shea said. "We just don't know how Saudi authorities will react when there are loads of foreigners visiting who are used to raising issues at football matches. I think that we very well may see more arrests, unfortunately, in the future."

Alhajji has similar concerns, adding that Saudi Arabia's lack of reporting and transparency means the breadth of persecution of minorities or dissidents remains unknown: "Everyone must be careful, as they may be at risk of arrest because of their clothing, appearance, a word they said, a stance they took, or raising a slogan or flag."

World Cup organizer FIFA says it is "committed to respecting all internationally recognized human rights and shall strive to promote the protection of these rights," but Alhajji said the organization are putting no pressure on Saudi Arabia to change. It is unclear whether the imprisonment of an international fan, rather than Saudi Shiites, might yet force its hand.

Edited by: Mark Meadows

Iran and Israel are exchanging blows, as global fears rise that the conflict in the Middle East could widen. On Saturday, Iran launched some 300 ballistice missiles, drones and cruise missiles   toward Israel, according to Israeli defense officials.

Tehran says the attack was in retaliation for what it called an Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus that killed seven people in early April.

Peter Lintl, a research associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, says Israel's response to this most recent attack will have far-reaching consequences for the wider Middle East.

Who decides on Israel's response?

Shortly after the Hamas-led October 7 attack, Israel's government decided to create a three-member War Cabinet. Formally a part of Israel's State Security Cabinet, the War Cabinet is tasked with overseeing military operations that Israel launched in Gaza in retaliation for the attack. The War Cabinet has three ministerial observers.

Israeli and US officials say that Iran supports the militant wing of Hamas, which the US, Germany, the EU and others deem a terrorist organization, with funding, weapons, and training. Israel's allies argue that Iran is therefore "broadly complicit" in Hamas' attack in Israel.

Who serves in the War Cabinet?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the ring-wing Likud party heads the War Cabinet. Its other two decisionmakers are fellow Likud member and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant; as well as former head of the military and head of the liberal Zionist Israel Resilience party, Benny Gantz. Leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid from the centrist Zionist Yesh Atid party, was offered a seat but declined.

The War Cabinet's three observers are retired general Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity party affiliated with Gantz's Israel Resilience; Aryeh Deri, head of the ultra-orthodox Shas party; and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. All three may attend meetings, but none have a vote.

Why is there an emergency government?

Following the October 7 attack, Israel's Security Cabinet formally placed the country under a state of war, thereby permitting "significant military activities" to be carried out in response.

Netanyahu's current regular Cabinet is considered the most right-wing government in Israeli history. Lintl believes the War Cabinet is more balanced, and therefore has more legitimacy to make far-reaching political and military decisions regarding military operations in the besieged Gaza Strip.

"The controversy surrounding his judicial reform had already cost Netanyahu a lot of support," Lintl explained. "Hamas' terror attack on October 7 only increased the pressure on him."

He added that Netanyahu required broad coalitions to enforce war-related decisions. Adding that without multipartisan support the prime minister could face growing calls for his resignation.

How is the War Cabinet responding to Iran?

"A military counterstrike is very likely," Lintl said. "The question is when, and how, and where."

Following Iran's Saturday attack, Israel's War Cabinet convened on Sunday and again on Monday to discuss an appropriate response. Lintl believes that response could include symbolic measures, or a cyberattack.

"To avoid further escalation in the Middle East, we can only hope that an Israeli counterattack is not imminent, and limited in scope," the analyst said.

The UN, EU and Western allies, including the US, UK and France, have been calling upon Israel to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation of the conflict. In Gaza, Israel's military operation has killed over 34,000 civilians, over 13,000 of whom were children, and displaced 1.8 million, or about 80% of the population. Moreover, Israel's ongoing blockade of the enclave has caused famine in at least some areas of Gaza.

This article was originally published in German.

The criticism began almost immediately. Over the weekend, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Neighboring Jordan played a significant role in fending off the attack and it is likely that it shot down Iranian projectiles.

"The Jordanian king dropped missiles on his citizens to protect Israel," one widely shared post on X, formerly known as Twitter, said. The words were posted alongside a picture of drone wreckage in the Jordanian city of Karak, which is not very far from the border with Israel. The post, in Arabic, was later changed to be less negative of Jordanian leadership, which is known to repress criticism.

"Jordan following the money as usual," said one commentator.

"It's irresponsible of them to shoot missiles down over their own cities," another added.

A lot of anti-Jordan misinformation also appeared online, including posts that falsely accused the Jordanian king and his daughter, a pilot, of personal involvement. Others suggested that Jordanians had died when flaming wreckage fell on them. Though there was wreckage, the Jordanian government reported no injuries and specific videos showing wreckage turned out to be of oil tankers on fire several weeks earlier.

There were even accusations that the Jordanian government had signed a secret deal with Israel and the US to allow them access to Jordanian airspace.

Many people in Jordan angry about support for Israel

Beyond the misinformation, others pointed to what they saw as the hypocrisy of their own government and those of other Arab countries that have condemned Israel's military campaign in Gaza, called for a cease-fire and say they support the Palestinian cause. But then, their critics pointed out, they also helped defend Israel against Iran. Popular anger has largely targeted Jordan, but also the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

One in five people in Jordan,including the queen, are of Palestinian descent, and the Palestinian cause is close to the hearts of many. Many see the Jordanian military cooperation as a betrayal.

"I'm very upset at how Jordan defended Israel," said Hussein, a political activist who would only give his first name because criticizing the Jordanian government can be dangerous. "A lot of people here do not accept this. We don't support Iran and see it as a major cause of what is happening in Gaza. But we do stand with any action that deters Israel in Gaza."

"It was a difficult night," said Maryam, a university student in Amman, who lives near one of the areas where wreckage fell; she too only gave her first name. "Iran isn't popular in Jordan in general. But I reject Jordan's interception of Iranian missiles, and its involuntary involvement in this war."

This conflict is "bringing vulnerable US allies like Jordan to a most unwelcome position between a rock and a hard place," Tuqa Nusairat, an expert on US policy in the Middle East for the Atlantic Council, wrote in an analysis on the weekend.

Jordan: Interception was self-defense, not normalization

The Jordanian government issued a statement saying it had acted in self-defense, intercepting objects that entered Jordanian airspace "because they posed a threat to our people and populated areas."

What happened over the weekend "could never be framed as defending Israel, but rather defending Jordanian sovereignty and airspace," Mahmoud Ridasat, a retired senior officer and military expert based in the Jordanian capital Amman, told DW.

After all, he explained, you cannot know where a drone or missile is going to land. And with regard to Israeli media reports that were celebrating Jordanian military cooperation, he said,  "this is nothing more than Israeli propaganda." 

Jordanian society is relatively divided on this issue, explained Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group. "And you can understand why," she told DW. "People don't really know much about the details of Jordan's economic, diplomatic and security relationships with the US and Israel because that sort of thing is not often reported here." 

Not-so-secret defense deal with US

The countries are closer than many may be aware of. Mustafa suspected that the "secret deal" some Jordanians were debating refers to the 2021 defense cooperation agreement between the US and Jordan, which was condemned by activists because it bypassed parliamentary approvals.

The controversial agreement allows US forces, vehicles and aircraft to enter and move around Jordan freely. As a 2023 report to US Congress put it, it "formalizes years of US-Jordanian military cooperation, which became more visible at the start of [operations] against the [extremist group] Islamic State."

"But it was only when the first protests about Gaza began, that a lot of people started saying Jordan should be kicking the Americans out," Mustafa told DW. 

Over the past few weeks, thousands of locals have gathered regularly outside the Israeli embassy in Amman to protest the situation in Gaza. They have also called for a reversal of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty.

Jordan's actions aimed at 'preventing regional escalation'

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, is fairly certain this weekend's action and the ensuing upset won't destabilize the Jordanian government though.

"Clearly different sides are going to present it in different ways," he told DW. "But ultimately the Jordanians can justify their actions because drones and missiles were flying through their airspace. The Jordanian response was aimed more at preventing regional escalation than tightening up any strategic alliance with Israel."

What would be far more destabilizing and dangerous for Jordan and many other nations in the Middle East is a regional war, Barnes-Dacey pointed out.

"I think that means that they [the nations] are all going to continue to work to stop incidents that could provoke an unravelling," he concluded. "They will keep talking to the Iranians, they will continue to try to de-escalate. And if there are more security incidents, if there are further attacks over their airspace, the Jordanians will likely do the same again."

Edited by: Anne Thomas

Domestically produced drones played an important role in Iran's attack on Israel. With a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, they were intended to destroy hundreds of targets in Israel.

According to the Israeli army, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israeli targets during the attack that unfolded in the early hours of Sunday morning. Israel and its allies, which included the US, the UK and some Arab countries, managed to fend off 99% of all drones and missiles fired by Iran, the Israeli military reported.

"The attack was a serious attempt to overwhelm the Israeli defense systems," said Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran's military capability.

Hinz, an expert in drone and missile systems at the UK-based think-tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told DW that Iran's attack was more than a symbolic show of force.

"Iran wanted to hit and destroy its targets. But it didn't work particularly well. The interception rate by Israeli and American defense systems was extraordinarily high," he said.

Iran says attack 'demonstration of power'

Iran, on the other hand, claims to have carried out a successful retaliatory operation against Israel, which Tehran blames for an April 1st strike on a diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria, that killed two generals.

The consensus of experts being quoted in Iranian state media is that the attack was a "demonstration" rather than an "exercise" of Iranian power.

Neighboring countries and the US were informed of the attack plans in advance, and Iran maintains it is capable of overwhelming Israel's defense systems if it chooses to do so.

However, expert Hinz believes the fact that the failure of the barrage to strike Israeli targets could call into question the deterrent effect of Iran's drone and missile systems.

"For Iran, its own deterrent power depends on precisely these systems, and on the ability to launch such attacks," he said.

According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News, which is associated with the Revolutionary Guards, the drones deployed by Iran in the attack were of the "Shahed-136" type, also known as kamikaze drones. 

They are light, small, cheap and barely detectable by radar. They can carry a simple warhead of around 50 kilograms and can also reach Israel with their range.

The threat of Iranian drones

Despite Western sanctions, Iran has continued to develop its drone program over the last 30 years. Today, Tehran has a large arsenal of drones at its disposal.

Iran began developing this technology very early on and has been producing drones since the 1980s, drone and security tech expert Arthur Holland Michel from the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York, told DW.

"Compared to missiles, drones do not necessarily require highly developed components. They do not necessarily require a very expensive missile system. The technology required for drones is not subject to any sanctions or trade restrictions. For example, you can use simple propellers like you would use for hobby model airplanes," Michel said.

Due to technological progress, the threat posed by Iranian drones has increased considerably in recent years. Michel added that Iran is producing more precise drones in larger numbers. However, every attack reveals more about how to build better defense.

"With every attack, especially on US forces or in this case on Israel, Iran provides the defenders with information on how they can better counter this threat," said Michel.

"I think if we had seen an attack of this magnitude five years ago, we wouldn't have seen as many kills [missile interceptions] as we did, with a 99% interception rate. It's a cat-and-mouse game," he added.

Despite its successful defense against the Iranian attack, Israel must prepare for a "huge range of scenarios" when deciding on its response to Iran's unprecedented direct attack on Saturday night, Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), told DW on Sunday.

Iran relies on short- and medium-range ballistic missiles for air strikes. The longer-range "Shahab-2" and "Shahab-3" missiles have a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles), according to the Arms Control Association (ACA).

"The Iranians have missiles with a very long range and very good precision. Not many countries in the world have that," said Hinz.

"At the same time, of course, they have the problem that their military opponents, the US and Israel, are among the absolute world leaders when it comes to military technology," he added.

Hinz believes that the US and Israel may have gained new insights into Tehran's weapons arsenal as a result of the Iranian attack.

"They can collect a wealth of data, which the Iranians can no longer do once they have launched their missiles."

This article was originally written in German.

Many investors are holding their breath after Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel starting on April 13. The aerial strike was the first direct attack launched from Iranian territory and came the same day Iran's Revolutionary Guards forcefully detained an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Iranian attack had been largely anticipated after Iran blamed Israel for destroying part of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, on April 1.

Still, experts are waiting to see if the conflict between the two countries escalates, even as the United Nations and the United States put pressure on Israel to show restraint. Most businesses don't like uncertainty and the possibility of wider open warfare has the region on edge.  

Middle East oil and energy prices

If the conflict grows and engulfs more of the Middle East, the greatest risk for the global economy is the response in the energy markets, especially oil prices.

"A rise in oil prices would complicate efforts to bring inflation back to target in advanced economies but will only have a material impact on central bank decisions if higher energy prices bleed into core inflation," Neil Shearing, group chief economist at consultancy Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

However, oil prices have not moved much since the attack. It seems that the market had already taken the current unstable situation into account and was not spooked over the weekend by the retaliatory strike.

OPEC+ and its spare capacity

In fact, Brent crude oil prices rose from $83 per barrel a month ago to over $90 per barrel last week, where they have stayed, "spurred in part by concerns about supplies and geopolitical risks from conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine," wrote Shearing.

The economist pointed out another reason for calm on the oil market is a push by some OPEC+ members to increase production quotas. "A rise in oil supply will obviously help to limit any rise in its price," whether because of increased tensions or supply chain problems like dangerous Red Sea shipping routes.

Jorge Leon, a senior vice president at energy analyst Rystad Energy, agrees. Though OPEC+ has a complicated job of coordinating and managing the oil market, it is likely to unwind voluntary production cuts at a meeting in June, he wrote in a note on Monday. This could release 6 million barrels a day in spare capacity to limit price pressures since it is in the group's interest to avoid a global energy crisis. 

Inflation could impact growth

If oil prices did increase and remained high, it could fuel global inflation at a time when several countries suffer from long-term high inflation.

This "sticky inflation" could create a dilemma for central banks, as we also found out after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, argued Deutsche Bank analysts in a note to clients.  

"On the one hand, there is the risk that a geopolitical shock hurts growth, bringing forward the timing of rate cuts," according to the bank.

Investing in all that glitters

As for stocks, when markets opened on Monday, many Asian equity indices, like the Nikkei, were lower.

"But that partly reflects a catchup to the selloff that already took place on Friday after they'd closed, when headlines came through suggesting that an attack could happen," wrote the Deutsche Bank analysts.

For their part, European markets opened higher. Overall, the analysts don't see much change among key assets since Friday "with investors hopeful that any escalation will prove contained."

One small sign that investors are looking for a safer investment is the increase in the price of gold, which was up 0.51% on Monday to just over $2,356 (€2,211) an ounce.

It is still early, and the conflict could widen and pull in other countries, lead to more US sanctions on Iran, or damage or destroy oil infrastructure. Some Western airlines temporarily suspended flights into the region, while others have rerouted flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace.

If Iran or Houthi rebels continue to target Israel-linked ships in the important trade route through the Strait of Hormuz, "a risk of false targeting and collateral damage exists," according to Ambrey, a maritime risk management company. This or another aerial attack could further pull in the US, drive up global shipping costs and cause havoc for the world economy.  

Edited by: Uwe Hessler