One of the biggest risks for Syria's peaceful transition lies in the country's northeast. While many Syrian Arabs around the country were celebrating the demise of the regime headed by Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and the end of a long-running civil war, Syrian Kurds in the northeast were facing an existential crisis.

Clashes between Syrian fighters backed by Turkey and Syrian Kurdish forces were of great concern United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersonsaid this week. The other immediate areas of concern are Israel's ongoing incursions into Syria and the protection of Syria's minorities.

What is happening in the northeast?

Fighting in the Syrian civil war had been frozen for years, and the opposition groups controlling their different areas in the north tended not to clash. But over the past few days, fighting erupted again.

After the fall of the Assad regime, the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), a group of fighters backed by Turkey, has tried to advance into areas controlled by Syrian Kurds.

The Turkish government opposes the Kurdish presence on their border, seeing them as a threat. This is because of a long-running Kurdish struggle for independence in Turkey that has often turned violent. 

As the Turkish-backed militias have advanced, the Syrian Kurdish forces there, known as the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), have lost territory. Turkey has also used airstrikes and drones to support the SNA's advance.

On Tuesday, the two parties said they negotiated a ceasefire agreement with help from the United States. This will involve the withdrawal of Syrian Kurdish forces from some of the areas they previously controlled.

Another rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has taken control of the Arab-majority city of Deir al-Zour. The SDF withdrew from there following local unrest. The US-trained Syrian Free Army (SFA) has also taken some terrain here.

The SDF has now said it is open to participating in a new political process in Syria. 

Why is it happening?

The Kurdish people are often described as one of the biggest ethnic groups in the world without a country of their own. If they did have a country, it would lie in the Kurdish-majority areas where Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey meet.

There is a Kurdish independence movement in each of those countries, whose members have lobbied and even fought for an independent state or Kurdish autonomy, with varying degrees of success. Kurdish independence movements in each of the countries have also been repressed by their respective governments — also with varying degrees of success. In Turkey, the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK, turned to violence to try to achieve their aims.

In Syria, near the start of the civil war, around 2012, the forces of now-deposed dictator Assad, withdrew from Kurdish-majority areas in northeastern and eastern Syria without much of a fight. The move was not without controversy.

Syrian Arab revolutionaries said they didn't want the Kurds to be independent from Syria and that the country should remain united. There was also scurrilous talk about whether the Kurds had betrayed the original objectives of Syria's revolutionaries, to overthrow the regime, and that in a bid to pursue their own goal of Kurdish independence, the Kurds would maintain neutrality in the civil war. The Kurds never really fought against Assad's forces, and this alleged "betrayal" caused antipathy between Syrian Arabs and Syrian Kurds, layered on top of previous ethnic tensions and racism.

During the 13-year civil war, the US got involved with Syria's Kurds, allying with them to combat the extremist group known as the "Islamic State" (IS). The group came from Iraq and, taking advantage of the chaos of the civil war, set up a "Syrian capital" for its planned "caliphate" in Raqqa.

US and Kurdish forces were the major players in the fight against the IS group in Syria. And while fighting against the IS group, Syrian Kurds also expanded the terrain under their control, including Arab-majority areas like Raqqa and Deir al-Zour.

Locals have protested against the Kurdish leadership there, including this week when they insisted the Kurdish forces allow other rebel groups to enter.

All these issues, past and present, remain at the root of the problems the Syrian Kurds are now dealing with. Now that the Assad regime has gone, they are being squeezed between Syrian Arab groups and Turkey, with the US as their only ally.

In fact, one of the questions that most worries Syria's Kurds is how long the American alliance will last after President-elect Donald Trump reenters the White House. There are fears the incoming Trump administration will withdraw US soldiers from Syria altogether, abandoning the Kurds. Currently, there are still an estimated 900 US soldiers in the country. 

Why does it matter?

An estimated 4.6 million people were previously living in the Kurdish-controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES. The area is also often called Rojava by local Kurds and was also home to Kurds from Iraq, Turkey and Iran.

Since fighting began this week, the UN estimates over 100,000 people in the area have fled the fighting, most of them Kurds. Several hundred people have been killed in the fighting.

Apart from the humanitarian aspects of the situation, the territory the Kurds held included most of Syria's oil fields and was also a major wheat producer. In particular, control over Syria's oil fields will be important to the new government, as income from them will help the country's devastated economy.

Experts also suggest the Turkish-backed SNA's race to grab as much territory as possible goes beyond Turkish aims to get the Kurds off the border. Territorial control is also about leverage and power as the next Syrian government is formed.

Additionally, the SDF runs large prison camps in northeastern Syria, which house thousands of former IS extremists. Previously, SDF fighters have said that if they are attacked, they'll be forced to leave the prison camps unguarded. 

Edited by: Sean M. Sinico 

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has visited Israel and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a bid to support the newly-revived efforts to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

After the meeting, Sullivan said he "got the sense" that the Israeli leader was "ready to do a deal" which would secure a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Islamist group Hamas in Gaza, while also securing the release of the 100 hostages still held by the group after being abducted to the Strip during the attacks on October 7, 2023, which claimed the lives of more than 1,200 people, most of them civilians.

"My goal will be to put us in a position to be able to close this deal this month," Sullivan said at a press conference in Tel Aviv.

Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 44,805 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians. That's according to figures from the Hamas-run territory's Health Ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.

On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.

Gaza attacks continue

The Hamas-led authorities in Gaza said Israeli airstrikes killed at least 33 people, including 12 guards securing aid trucks, white the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said it targeted militants planning to hijack the vehicles.

The United Nations and other aid agencies have repeatedly warned about the acute humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip after 14 months of war.

UNRWA spokeswoman Louise Wateridge told journalists visiting Nuseirat in central Gaza that the conditions for people in the Strip are "appalling and apocalyptic."

Israel also carried out an attack in southern Lebanon.The IDF said it had targeted Hezbollah militants whose presence in the area had formed a violation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

IDF attacks targets in Syria

Elsewhere, Israel continues to operate in Syria after the fall of the Assadregime.

IDF troops are still present in the UN-patrolled buffer zone that separates Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights, in a move the UN said violated the 1974 armistice.

During a visit to Jordan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel was concerned about any power vacuum that could be filled by extremists, but that Washington was speaking to the Israelis about the way ahead.

"It's really important at this time that we all try to make sure we're not sparking any additional conflicts," Blinken said.

On Monday, Israel said it had struck "remaining chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets in order that they will not fall in the hands of extremists."

The director-general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Fernando Arias Gonzalez, said his group was "following closely" reports of strikes on military facilities.

 "We do not know yet whether these strikes have affected chemical weapon-related sites. Such airstrikes could create a risk of contamination," he said in a speech.

ftm/jcg (AFP, AP, Reuters)

Bloodthirsty terrorists or Syria's best hope? Syrians are divided about the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive that resulted in the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week.

"They are also sons of the country," Ghaith Mahmoud, 36, who fought against the Syrian government forces but has lived in Germany since 2016, told DW. "I don't know if they can run the country. But I do know that all the young men who fought as part of these groups now only want to go home."

Other ex-pats are less understanding.They don't think HTS, which is now heading the setup of a new, transitional government in the country, can be trusted. 

HTS promised not to impose its Islamist politics on the religiously and ethnically diverse nation. But pictures of the HTS-appointed interim prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, raised alarm with some Syrians. He sat at a desk with two flags behind him — one was the green and black flag of the Syrian revolution, and the other was inscribed with an Islamic prayer. 

The prayer features prominently on the Saudi Arabian flag and has also been used by extremist groups and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

What policies a new Syrian transitional government, installed with HTS backing, would put in place also raises questions about whether the rebel group should still be classified as a terrorist organization. 

HTS was previously linked to extremist groups like al-Qaeda and the "Islamic State" (IS).That's why the United States designates HTS "a foreign terrorist organization" and the UK considers it a "proscribed terrorist organization."

The European Union has two lists sanctioning terror groups. One is autonomous to the EU, a spokesperson for foreign affairs told DW, and the other follows the UN's example. On the EU's own list, HTS is not listed as a terror group. But on the EU's second, UN-based list, HTS remains part of a sanctioned organization due to its affiliation with al-Qaeda and IS since 2013.

Should the UN remove HTS from that list, then the EU would do the same, the spokesperson added.

Debate over HTS terror listing

Earlier this week, UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen suggested that, given recent events, HTS' terror designation needed review.

"You have to look at the facts and to see what has happened during the last nine years," Pederson said at a press conference in Geneva. "It is nine years since that resolution [to put HTS on the terror list] was adopted and the reality so far is that the HTS and also the other armed groups have been sending good messages to the Syrian people; they have been sending messages of unity, of inclusiveness."

Politicians in the US and UK have also suggested a reassessment, although much of the debate has been behind closed doors.

Whether it will happen is unclear, according to Aaron Zelin, an expert on HTS and senior fellow at the Washington Institute.

"It's understandable that governments would be discussing it just because of the change in [Syria's] situation," he told DW. "But it's not necessarily because people don't think they're extremists. HTS actually called for the US to take them off the [terror] list back in 2020."

Though delisting didn't happen then, Syria's current geopolitical importance to the West could work in HTS' favor, Zelin suggested.

Right-wing and anti-immigration politicians in Europe are already discussing how they can send Syrian refugees back. But international law would very likely forbid sending people directly to a country run by a recognized terror group and countries cannot openly and legitimately communicate with one.

Contacts established

That said, there are already contacts between HTS and at least some of the governments that classify HTS as a terror group. Turkey talks to them and Germany's Foreign Ministry says it has ways of contacting HTS, as does its US counterpart.

"We have the ability to get messages to every one of the relevant groups inside Syria," a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday in Washington. But that doesn't mean the US can legally offer material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization, he continued.

The latter is another reason why, experts have argued, it's worth considering HTS' terror listing.

It gets in the way of accessing humanitarian aid, which happened after the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and northern Syria in February 2023.

Pre-existing sanctions on Syria's Assad regime and the HTS terror listing also make it very difficult for organizations working on development and reconstruction in Syria. HTS has announced it wants to run a free-market economy, but sanctions would also have an international "chilling effect" as businesses and banks could be extremely cautious when it comes to dealing with Syria.

There are also reasons for caution on HTS terror listing, observers have said.

HTS was born out of several extremist groups in Syria but severed those ties in 2016 and since then has actually imprisoned, expelled and fought members of al-Qaeda and the IS group. HTS also previously said it would not allow its territory to be used as a base for extremist attacks.

"HTS poses a low threat to those outside of its immediate area of control," a brief by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted in mid-2023. "However, HTS' authoritarian style of governance poses a threat to the local population."

Actions, not words

Since around 2017, HTS has controlled an area in northern Syria with a population of over 3 million people, and, like all other opposition militia groups in the country, it has also been accused of human rights abuses.

"Its policies are often enforced through intimidation, assassination of its rivals and the murder of civil society activists," Joseph Daher, a professor at the European University Institute and expert on Syria, explained in an interview with Tempest magazine this week. "Many Syrians in areas under the group's control express relief at the relative stability there but resentment at the group's iron-fisted practices."

To rid itself of the terror listing and gain formal international recognition, HTS must now prove itself, experts at the Crisis Group think tank said in a statement published Thursday.

"Washington and other Western capitals should … lay out for [HTS military leader Abu Mohammed] al-Golani what he needs to do to get the terrorism designation lifted," they wrote. "[Al-Golani] must quickly show Syrians, particularly those who do not share his Islamist beliefs and the country's minorities, as well as mistrustful neighbors and Western capitals, that his movement can work with others to steer the country toward a better future. The world, in turn, should give him space to do so."

If the international community deems the Syrian government's actions inadequate, "officials can quickly reimpose the designation if they deem it necessary," Crisis Group suggested. 

Edited by: Sean M. Sinico

One of the first things the rebels in Syria did, after they seized the capital, Damascus, on Sunday, was to release the prisoners from the cells of the notorious Saydnaya Prison. Nicknamed "the human slaughterhouse" by Amnesty International, Saydnaya was a place where humanitarian groups say Syrian authorities under President Bashar Assadsystematically tortured and executed thousands of civilians. 

Human rights advocate and former detainee Omar Alshogre explained to DW: "Documented detainees in Syria before the fall of the regime used to be around 139,000. I believe it's over 200,000 people who have been in these cells, tortured on a daily basis."

"We are talking about hundreds of thousands of people who were detained and tortured over the decades, and that means many Syrians, almost every Syrian family lost someone or know someone who has been forcibly disappeared and people were never able to hear about them again," Ibrahim al-Assil from the Middle East Institute told DW.

While many people are frantically searching for their loved ones thought to have been detained in Saydnaya, images and videos purportedly depicting freed prisoners have flooded the internet. However, not all of them are true. DW Fact check investigated the viral claims.

AI-generated image goes viral as a picture of Saydnaya prisoner 

Claim: "This is one of the prisoners from Saydnaya Prison. A man is surprised to see a human face because some despicable person put him underground and decided to forget him in the hole," reads the post on X with picture of a seemingly shocked man getting out from a hole in the ground. 

DW Fact check: Fake. 

The image doesn't show a detainee of Saydnaya Prison. A reverse image search leads to another X-post of the image alongside a 5-second-long video showing a man crawling from the hole with a big spider in his hand. The videowas published on TikTok on December 3, 2024, and is labeled as AI-generated by its creator. The wide-open eyes of the man despite the bright light directed at him and the unnatural movements of his hand also indicate that the video was produced with the help of AI.

 "Yes, everything is AI, c'mon," reads the description of the TikTok account, which posts creepy AI-generated videos daily, many of them showing men and women with giant spiders and unknown creatures in the tunnels. The image from the video has no connection to the Saydnaya Prison in Syria.

Images and video from a museum in Vietnam misused to create a fake video about Saydnaya

Claim: An image showing an emaciated, long-haired man chained in a cell has gone viral on different social media platforms with a claim that the person is an inmate of the Saydnaya Prison. "At first glance, one would think this is a scene from a horror movie?! But in fact, it is Sidnaya prison in Damascus."

DW Fact check: False. 

The widely circulating image does not show a Saydnaya prisoner. Through a reverse image search we found a picture of the same chained man, taken in August 2008, on the British privately owned stock photography agency Alamy. The caption provided by the photographer reads: "A reconstruction of a cell commonly known as a tiger cage in the War Remnants Museum in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam." There are more pictures of other wax figures in different cells by this photographer.  

According to the results of the image reverse search, the viral image is a keyframe from an 11-seconds-long video allegedly showing Saydnaya Prison.

DW's Fact check team compared this video with the online tour movie on the official YouTube channel of the War Remnants Museum in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Most pictures of the video purportedly showing Saydnaya Prison are taken from the online tour movie of the museum. The image of the long-haired chained man was integrated into the video, presumably using AI. 

Claims of underground cells continue to spread, despite lack of evidence

 

Claim: A video shows a toddler trapped in underground cells in Saydnaya Prison.

The one-minute video, widely circulated on TikTok with over 2.7 million views, begins with a close-up shot of a toddler peering through a small opening in what appears to be rubble or debris, with one hand reaching out. This is followed by a satellite image of Saydnaya Prison, accompanied by a voiceover alleging that the prison contains hidden underground cells where detainees are trapped without food, water, or fresh air. The voiceover encourages viewers to share the video to raise international awareness.

Although the voiceover does not explicitly claim the presence of children in Saydnaya Prison, many of the more than 1,000 users commenting on the video interpreted it that way. Some expressed sadness and concern for the child's fate.

DW Fact check: False. 

This video of the toddler does not originate from Saydnaya Prison or any related incident. A reverse image search leads to longer video versions, still available online, revealing that the footage shows a child playing at home, not trapped under rubble. 

The footage seems to originate from a now-deleted TikTok account where videos of the child were often posted. 

This same footage has circulated in recent weeks with various false claims, including one suggesting that it shows a Gazan child trapped under rubble following an Israeli airstrike. Other accounts claimed the video was filmed in Syria. While it's difficult to verify the exact time and location of the footage, it was uploaded weeks before recent developments involving Saydnaya Prison, proving it is unrelated.

Furthermore, claims of hidden underground cells at Saydnaya Prison have been debunked. On December 9, a team from the White Helmets — an opposition-run volunteer organization — conducted a thorough investigation of the prison using trained search dogs. In a statementpublished on social media, the organization announced that, after inspecting all entrances, exits, ventilation shafts, sewage systems, water pipes, electrical wiring, and surveillance systems, "no hidden or sealed areas were identified."

While no credible evidence supports the claim about underground detainment cells in Saydnaya, posts replicating this claim continue to gain traction. For example, another post on December 10 features AI-generated imagery depicting a stark, multi-layered underground prison with overcrowded, dimly lit cells. The post urges viewers to share the content, calling it a "humanitarian duty." However, neither the claims about the hidden cells nor the association with the toddler are supported by evidence.

Misleading claims after atrocities can undermine the truth 

The false claims and manipulated imagery related to Saydnaya Prison go far beyond the specific cases we investigated. In addition to videos taken out of context, numerous unverified claims continue to circulate online.

In a verified video showing Syrians entering the prison, a child is briefly seen. Many have sharedstill images from that scene, saying it proves children are being detained in Saydnaya. However, it is not uncommon for toddlers to accompany their detained mothers in prisons, it remains unclear whether the child in the video was among the detainees or present with civilians entering the facility.

Spreading false information about atrocities not only undermines efforts to document and investigate them but also hinders accountability for perpetrators. Such misinformation can lead to a phenomenon known as atrocity denial, where the credibility of genuine human rights abuses is questioned, ultimately weakening justice efforts and obscuring the truth.

 

Emad Hassan and Claudia Dehn contributed to this report.

Edited by: Rachel Baig

The sudden collapse of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East overnight. Iran and Turkey, who for years have maintained a delicate geopolitical balance, are now faced with competing interests in a post-Assad Syria.

Despite years of collaboration — particularly on Turkey's economic support to circumvent international sanctions on Iran— relations between Iran and Turkey appear to be fraying.

On Wednesday, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered a veiled critique of Turkey, accusing an unnamed "neighboring country" of conspiring with the US and Israel to topple the Assad regime.

Competing strategies in Syria

Turkey has long provided support for anti-Assad rebel groups, including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist militant group that led the march to Damascus.

However, Turkey's primary interest in Syria has been to create a buffer zone and a bridgehead to fight Kurdish groups in northern Syria.

Since 2016, Turkey has occupied chunks of northern Syria. In 2017, it helped create a coalition of armed opposition groups called the Syrian National Army (SNA) to counter Kurdish militants.

The success of opposition groups against Assad with Turkey's long-standing support points to Ankara potentially having more influence in Syria going forward.

In post-Assad Syria, Turkey ultimately wants to prevent Kurdish interests from taking root in a new Syrian government.

Henri J. Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a recent article that the "single most crucial aim" for Turkey in Syria remains the eradication of the Syrian Kurdish group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Barkey said Turkey fears that "Syrian Kurds would cut a deal with any central government in Damascus to achieve an autonomous status just like Iraqi Kurds did following the Iraq war."

For Iran, the Assad regime was a critical strategic ally in the Middle East, and as Turkey is poised to gain influence, Iran's ability to project power in the region has been steadily diminishing.

Omid Shokri, an international relations expert from Istanbul, told DW that Iran "might consider supporting Syrian Kurdish groups to exert pressure on Turkey."

Wider regional implications

Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, said he believes that recent developments in Syria have shifted the balance of power in Turkey's favor.

Vakhshiteh told DW that Ankara could capitalize on Tehran's current vulnerabilities to advance its wider geopolitical aims.

This includes support for a land corridor connecting the land-locked Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan borders both Turkey and Iran.

Turkey is in favor of the land corridor that would connect it with Turkic regions. Iran has raised concerns that Azerbaijan could use it to block Iran's access to Armenia.

He also highlighted Russia's lack of motivation to intervene in Syria and in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has allowed Iran's regional rivals, including Turkey, to gain the upper hand.

"The notion that Turkey has expanded its influence in Syria with Russia's approval is somewhat exaggerated. Countries have long been analyzing and planning based on their national interests, and this is not a new development," Vakhshiteh said.

Turkey's economic lifeline to Iran

For years, Turkey has been a critical partner in helping Iran circumvent international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

Along with the UAE, Turkey has facilitated trade and provided essential goods to Iran.

Official data from Iran's customs authority revealed that trade volume between the two countries reached approximately $10 billion in the first ten months of this year, with ambitions to triple this figure within five years.

However, escalating tensions could threaten this economic lifeline.

Turkey is also a popular destination for Iranian property investments, consistently ranking among the top three buyers of real estate in Turkey.

These ties will be tested as the future of leadership in Syria  takes shape. 

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

The Club World Cup launch was marked by FIFA's typical pomp and ceremony. Suits and ties, convoluted tournament processes and much talk of "inclusivity" and the historic importance of a rejigged competition that few players, clubs or fans seem to want.

As part of that Miami shindig last week, FIFA boss Gianni Infantino confirmed a new and surprising broadcast deal. Exclusive rights have gone to DAZN, a sports streaming website headquartered in the UK that has been buying up rights packages for sports, mainly in western Europe, for the last few years. It is also losing significant sums of money. 

"Through this broadcasting agreement, billions of football fans worldwide can now watch what will be the most widely accessible club football tournament ever — and FOR FREE. Football Unites the World," Infantino was quoted on FIFA's website as saying. The capital letters are FIFA's own.

The promise that all matches will be free-to-air worldwide is eyecatching from an organization that usually chases the money. At FIFA's Women's World Cup in Australia in 2023, for example, non-host matches were hidden away on a pay-TV service few were subscribed to. It also narrows the options for DAZN; it can either stream the matches itself but waive its usual fees or sub-license the 63 matches to free-to-air broadcasters (usually public broadcasters) around the world.

"What surprised me was the the $1 billion (€950 million) fee, which I think is is quite a big shot [gamble] for a competition that hasn't really proven its value," Tom Evens, co-author of upcoming book "Sports Media Rights in the Age of Streaming and Platformisation," told DW.

"It's a new thing. There was limited demand from broadcasters, also not much from the teams themselves. Yes, the big teams that can earn some $40, $50 million, very nice to have it. But it's another competition. The players don't like it. The calendar is already so full."

Worth a billion dollars?

That fee is about the same as what a whole season of domestic rights for Germany's top flight, the Bundesliga (306 matches), or La Liga, in Spain (380 matches), cost, though both leagues can sell their international rights separately. The well-established UEFA Champions League, which features all of Europe's best clubs, and thus the best-supported sides and best-known players in the world, estimated it would get "between €4.6 billion and €4.8 billion" in total for its expanded competition (189 matches) this season.

All of which begs the question: What's in it for DAZN?

"It's an opportunity to break in to new territories," said Evens, who also thinks advertising will play its part. "They're already fairly big in in Europe, they have some rights in Italy, in Germany, and Spain. So it's not a way to grow in Europe, but in a certain parts of Latin America, North America, Australia and elsewhere."

But within the industry, there is a belief that the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) is lurking off screen. The investment arm of the Saudi government has spent countless billions in sports over the years, and there are strong and consistent rumors, despite PIF denials in October, that it is looking to buy a stake in DAZN.

DAZN, whose most recent accounts in 2022 saw it announce operating losses of $1 billion, told DW that it would not comment publicly on the rumors, pointing to the PIF denials. But a company insider added that "the agreement with FIFA has a strong commercial rationale and is funded by DAZN and its shareholders." PIF did not respond to a request for comment after the latest events.

FIFA and Saudi Arabia increasingly linked

As well as investment in football, golf, tennis and all sorts of other sports, Saudi Arabia has tried to use state-owned companies like Aramco (oil) to sponsor FIFA events and was awarded the 2034 World Cup unopposed on Wednesday.

"Saudi Arabia is a very important partner for FIFA and is playing an important role in football development," said Infantino recentl,y while an independent report published by FIFA last month, which was intended to ease concerns about the kingdom's dire human rights record, was slammed by various human rights organizations.

Evens, who is also a professor at Ghent University in Belgium, said that should the PIF be investing in DAZN, the Club World Cup deal could be considered a "gift to FIFA" and that "$1 billion to the PIF is nothing."

"As far as I understand it, there was really limited interest in these rights. So if DAZN had not bought them, it would have been tricky to sell them at a premium price. And then the links between Saudi Arabia and FIFA would be instrumental."

If the PIF are not waiting in the wings for DAZN, it's a gamble for the company. It has little presence outside of its key markets in Europe, with only the rights for more marginal sports in other parts of the world. It will hope that the inaugural Club World Cup, played in the United States during the break in the European season, might drive some new custom its way.

Evens concludes that whatever happens, FIFA will be the "big winner" out of this deal. It usually is.

Edited by: Chuck Penfold

Last week, representatives from Iran and the "E3" grouping of UK, France, and Germany met in Geneva for talks seeking progress on the faltering Iran nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The deal offers Iran sanctions relief in return for verifiable limits on nuclear weapons development. However, it has mostly fallen through after the US pulled out under Donald Trump in 2018. Iran has been rapidly advancing its nuclear weapons development since then.

The sit-down in Geneva came after the US, UK and EU in November rejected an Iranian offer to cap uranium enrichment at 60%, and allow further inspections of nuclear facilities.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi had called Tehran's offer "a concrete step in the right direction." However, it was not enough for the Western signatories.

Subsequently, the E3 filed a motion at the IAEA demanding a "comprehensive" report confirming Iranian compliance with the JCPOA.

Tehran could face a return of the UN Security Council sanctions regime after the nuclear deal formally expires in October 2025, and the IAEA report would be the first step toward that outcome.

The UN sanctions on Iran automatically expired in October 2023, but the E3 maintained their own sanctions on Iran, citing Iran's "consistent and severe non-compliance with its JCPOA commitments."

Slim chances for progress

The Geneva talks on Friday were seen as an attempt to look for potential room from Europe to ease pressure. 

However, statements released in the meantime do not bode well for progress.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, had initially described the talks as "progressive" and announced plans for continued discussions without going into detail.  

However, Gharibabadi also called the EU "self-centered and irresponsible" in a post on X ahead of the talks.

"With regard to the nuclear issue of Iran, Europe has failed to be a serious player due to lack of self-confidence and responsibility," he wrote in a post after meeting separately with the EU's chief negotiator, Enrique Mora.

On Monday, the E3 issued a statement condemning Iran for further increasing uranium enrichment toward 60%, which approaches the 90% needed for weapons production.

Iran, which has always denied it is trying to produce nuclear weapons, criticized the E3's "unconstructive approach" with supporting the "anti-Iran" resolution at the IAEA.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tuesday that the E3 was "reiterating politically motivated claims and accusations that Iran is militarizing its nuclear program." He also accused the E3 of "failing to fulfill their obligations" under the deal.

Since the US pullout in 2018, Iran's documented development of nuclear material has given Western negotiators little basis for compromise.

In a June 2024 statement responding to an IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program, the E3 said Iran's continued nuclear development was "unprecedented" for a state without a nuclear weapons program.

The statement also said Iran has "significant" quantities of highly enriched uranium, "from which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded."

The administration of US President Joe Biden has tried to revive the deal, and reportedly came close in 2022, but talks fell through, and negotiations since have gone nowhere.

Iran running out of leverage

Meanwhile, domestic legitimacy crises and declining influence in the Middle East have left Iran with fewer tools to maneuver diplomatically.  Whether hardliners in Tehran can be forced to compromise remains to be seen.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, recently announced that the country has activated advanced centrifuges in response to international resolutions against it.

This move aligns with rhetoric from hardliners like Javad Larijani, head of Iran’s Institute for Fundamental Sciences, who has suggested that nuclear weapons could be produced quickly if needed. 

However, analysts point out that Iran's leverage in negotiations remains limited.

Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, told DW that Tehran risks being "bartered away" in broader geopolitical bargaining between the West and Russia.

He highlighted Iran's weakening influence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq as a significant handicap. "Iran's proxies, once key bargaining chips, no longer carry the weight they once did," Vakhshiteh said.

This has been exacerbated by the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, removing a critical lever of Iran's power projection in the Middle East. Assad's fall has also led to concern that Iran will move towards developing a nuclear weapon more quickly as a deterrent.

For decades, Iran's regional influence was underpinned by its support for proxy groups across the Middle East. However, these groups — such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria — now face significant financial and logistical challenges.

Babak Dorbeiki, a former deputy for social and cultural affairs at Iran's Strategic Research Center, warned that abandoning these proxies would be a "strategic mistake."

"While Iran's proxies are weaker, they remain vital for leverage in international negotiations and as tools for shaping public opinion abroad," Dorbeiki said.

US President-elect Trump is also not expected to take a softer stance on Iran. Besides scrapping the JCPOA during his first term, Trump's policy was to apply "maximum pressure" on Iran, including through oil industry sanctions and targeted attacks, such as the 2019 assassination of General Qasem Soleimani.

In October 2024, after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, then-presidential candidate Trump said during a campaign speech that Israel should "hit nuclear first, and worry about the rest later."

Domestic pressure on Iran's regime

Iran’s domestic challenges are another formidable obstacle to its nuclear diplomacy.

Economic hardships, widespread corruption, and ongoing protests have eroded public trust in the government.

Faezah Hashemi, daughter of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, remarked in a recent interview with Azad Media that many Iranians "welcome external pressure as a means to achieve internal reform."

At the heart of this discontent is a generational divide. While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consolidated power through institutions like the Revolutionary Guards and judiciary, the younger population is increasingly alienated from the ruling establishment.

This generational rift complicates succession planning, with analysts predicting potential internal splits in a post-Khamenei era.

Nazila Golestan, a Paris-based political activist, told DW that Tehran's weakening regional influence and growing domestic unrest leave the regime in a vulnerable position.

"The government faces a dual crisis: declining authority at home and diminishing power abroad. These pressures may force Iran to adopt a more conciliatory stance in international negotiations," she said.

Iran's internal challenges are compounded by uncertainty surrounding Khamenei’s eventual succession. While his consolidation of power has kept factions in check, his successor may struggle to maintain this fragile unity. This looming leadership transition adds another layer of unpredictability to Tehran's foreign policy.

Some factions within the regime advocate for a recalibration of Iran's foreign policy, emphasizing diplomacy over military interventions. However, hardliners argue that any concessions could be seen as weakness, undermining the regime's credibility both domestically and abroad.

Iran's return to the nuclear negotiation table underscores the precarious balancing act that the regime faces. With its nuclear ambitions under scrutiny and its domestic challenges mounting, Tehran's room for maneuver is shrinking.

Edited by: Kate Martyr

When Bassam Khawand, a 55-year-old beekeeper from the southern Lebanese village of Saidun, returned to his hives after the halt of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, he found some of his bees dead. For months, Israeli shelling during the 13-month conflict had trapped him in his village, unable to take care of his bees.

But now, with the ceasefire in place since November 27, Khawand could finally care for his bees again — his source of honey and income. "It was too dangerous to leave the village because we work in the forest, where, at any time, you could be hit by a drone," he told DW.

Khawand was facing a tough season — some of his bees died from lack of food, and others were burned in the fires triggered by Israeli airstrikes. Honey sales dropped as "nobody wants honey like they used to," and he couldn't produce enough honey or train beekeepers, which is key to his business.

But now, Khawand is focused on rebuilding, caring for his bees, boosting honey production and training other beekeepers again.

Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon killed nearly 4,000 people and more than 16,000 wounded, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Over 1 million were displaced, and the economy was devastated.

Lebanon's agriculture sector hit hard  

Fires destroyed up to 65,000 olive trees, and 6,000 hectares of agricultural land have been damaged, according to Minister of Agriculture Abbas Hajj Hassan, who called the use of phosphorus munitions by Israel "an act of ecocide" on Arabic news channel Al Jazeera.

Rose Bechara, founder of the award-winning olive oil company Darmmess in the southern Lebanese village of Deir Mimas, told DW that when Israeli military airstrikes were pounding Lebanon, she had to move production to another facility in another southern village, far from the border.

Despite the devastation, there's a glimmer of hope, said Bechara, as pre-harvest soil analyses confirmed that Deir Mimas' soil remains free of heavy metals and phosphorus, promising potential for future production.

Still, the toll on southern Lebanon's farmers is staggering. An estimated 60% of them could not harvest this year due to the war, with Bechara herself facing losses of about $500,000 (€472,820) in equipment and production capacity.

While the fertile lands that once sustained life now bear the scars of war, Lebanon begins to reckon with the challenges of rebuilding and renewal amid a fragile ceasefire that offers a moment of respite.

Massive destruction makes rebuilding a challenge

Lebanon's economy was already in crisis before the war due to an economic downturn that began in 2019. High inflation, currency devaluation, and soaring prices pushed 82% of the population living in "multidimensional poverty," according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA).

The war with Israel has deepened the crisis even further, data recently compiled by World Bank shows.

Over 99,000 housing units, along with vital public facilities, have either been damaged or destroyed. The cost of physical damages and economic losses is estimated at $8.5 billion, while an independent task force forecasts the economic impact could exceed $20 billion.

Sami Atallah, founding director of the Beirut-based think tank, The Policy Initiative, says the conflict has not only been shrinking the economy further but has left people without a functional banking sector to support rebuilding efforts. "Unlike the 2006 war, Israel also targeted private property this time, worsening Lebanon's economy as people's savings are gone and incomes have plummeted," he told DW.

Securing funding is essential

While several countries provided millions in aid to displaced people during the war, rebuilding the country requires more substantial resources.

After this ceasefire, Iran has promised support, while Hezbollah officials have pledged compensation, and Iraq stated it will aid both Lebanon and Gaza.

In October, an international aid conference in Paris raised $1 billion in pledges, including funding for the Lebanese Armed Forces, which will be crucial in enforcing the ceasefire.

Leila Dagher, associate professor of economics at the Lebanese American University, thinks that Lebanon's reconstruction relies on international funding, with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) package crucial for unlocking support from global donors. "The challenge lies in ensuring that the funding is tied to transparent, reform-driven mechanisms to prevent mismanagement and rebuild confidence in Lebanon's governance," she told DW.

Sami Atallah believes that funding reconstruction efforts faces major hurdles, as Gulf nations show less interest, Iran's support remains uncertain, and Western countries, while advocating for rebuilding, contribute arms to Israel. Corruption risks also persist, with politically connected firms dominating contracts, often with donor complicity. "It's essential to have greater accountability from both Lebanese authorities and international donors," he said.

With the Lebanese state's domestic resources depleted, and a concrete reconstruction plan yet to be developed, Dagher urges the government to "prioritize transparent, accountable reconstruction policies, learning from past crises." A public online database to track aid and progress, she said is "essential for fostering trust and minimizing corruption."

Reform-driven government crucial for rebuilding trust

Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022, and the caretaker government lacks full empowerment. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled a session for the presidential election on January 9, 2025.

This political vacuum fuels distrust among international donors, already wary of Lebanon's history of corruption and mismanagement, with the current government seen as dysfunctional and ineffective.

"The Lebanese state must oversee reconstruction to avoid a fragmented approach, and political parties must not interfere in the reconstruction process, as their influence undermines the state's ability to function effectively," Atallah said.

Dagher believes a reform-driven government is crucial for rebuilding trust with the Lebanese people and the international community. "To unlock international funding, Lebanon urgently needs to elect a reform-minded president and prime minister committed to transparency and accountability," she said.

Will the ceasefire hold?

However, reconstruction and reforms are tightly linked to a lasting ceasefire. The Lebanese remain cautious, living in the present, as the situation could unravel at any moment.

A source from UNIFIL told CNN Israel breached the ceasefire agreement about 100 times since the truce went into effect, while Hezbollah has responded with rocket attacks.

Rose Bechara thinks that plans for the future cannot be made yet as it's unclear if the ceasefire will hold. "We can't say anything until we have a clear vision of the situation. No one is ready to continue the war, but we don't feel safe enough to return yet," she said.

And beekeeper Bassam Khawand hopes that the ceasefire will last, "We have enough damage, but we have a neighbor that it's not easy to work with."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

When rebel groups took control of Syria last week, the whereabouts of Syria's ousted ruler Bashar Assad were unclear for days. Rumors about the possible escape and the probable whereabouts of Assad and his family quickly multiplied. DW Fact Check took a closer look at some of the claims about Assad's whereabouts and found viral fakes.

Claim: News spread on social media and some media sites that Syria's ousted ruler had died in a plane crash. The claim was often posted in connection with this picture or video. Do they bear witness to the crash of a plane carrying Bashar Assad?

DW fact check: False

Neither the picture nor the video shows an plane crash involving Assad. A reverse image search reveals that the image of a plane wreck is decades old. The same plane is visible in this YouTube video from 2020, which shows YouTuber Matt Berger finding the wreckage from 1952 while hiking in Death Valley National Park in the US. DW also came across online articles reporting on the find.

The video posted in connection with the crash claim, which shows a plane burning at night, is also from another event. A reverse image search reveals that the footage is older and shows an Indian MiG-29 fighter plane that crashed in early September.

Speculation about a possible plane crash is also likely to have been fueled by confusing aircraft data in recent days. According to media reports, the signal of an airplane, a Syrian Air Ilyushin Il-76 T aircraft with the registration SYR9218, disappeared near the city of Homs over the weekend.

However, this does not necessarily mean that the plane crashed; according to experts — the transponder could also have been switched off. According to recent research by the German weekly Der Spiegel, for example, the mysterious flight could have something to do with Assad's escape — but the aircraft data does not prove his crash and death.

No current pictures of Assad in Moscow

As far as Assad's whereabouts are concerned, there has been speculation about his arrival in the Russian capital, Moscow. In line with this, several users on social networks, as well as some media outlets, shared various images allegedly showing Assad with his wife in Moscow.

Claim: "Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma appeared in Moscow," wrote one X user, posting a picture of the Syrian ruler with his wife and other male companions in a building. Some media outlets also published the photo, including one article with the headline "Photos taken of Assad in Moscow."

DW fact check: False

A reverse image search shows that the image, which has been shared several times, is over a year old. The picture was taken during Assad's visit to earthquake victims in an Aleppo hospital on February 10, 2023. It is a screenshot from a video recording of the visit. Corresponding images of Assad's visit at the time can also be found in the news agencies. 

Some X users also circulated another photo showing Assad at an airfield, claiming it as a recent picture from Moscow. In this case, a reverse image search also leads to the correct result. The images are from a visit by Assad to Moscow in March 2023.

According to official Russian sources, Assad arrived in Moscow on March 14, 2023, to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin on the following day. The posted picture shows Assad being greeted by the honor guard upon arrival at Vnukovo airport, outside Moscow.

Meanwhile, Russian news agencies have reported, citing a source in the Kremlin, that Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been granted asylum in Russia on humanitarian grounds. Staff at the Syrian Embassy confirmed to TASS that the ousted ruler is currently in the Russian capital.

However, no recent photos or video footage of Assad and his family in Moscow have been published.

Claudia Dehn contributed to this report.

Edited by: Martin Kuebler

Saudi Arabia'sconfirmation on Wednesday as the host of the 2034 FIFA World Cup has raised significant alarm with human rights groups, labor groups and activists, including some within the country.

FIFA's rating process saw Saudi Arabia's bid earn a record-high score of 419.8 out of a possible 500 and a record rating of 4.2 out of 5.

The human rights situation in the Middle Eastern country was rated as a "medium" risk by the world football governing body, despite several human rights organizations providing evidence contrary to that assertion directly to both FIFA and the Saudi authorities.

Lina al-Hathloul, the head of monitoring and advocacy at ALQST, a Saudi human rights organization, says that the world should not be distracted by a major tournament from the true situation in the country.

"You won't be able to hear real Saudi voices from inside the country because self-censorship has become the norm," she told DW. "Everyone knows that saying anything that could be seen as not even critical, but just not applauding the authorities, is enough to lead you to being jailed.

"So it's very important to hear us, to listen to what we have to say, and to stand in solidarity with Saudi political prisoners and everyone who is a victim of the Saudi authorities."

Flawed 'independent' report on Saudi human rights risks

AS&H Clifford Chance, a joint venture between two law firms in Saudi Arabia, was hired to compile an independent report that informed FIFA's human rights assessment of the country. 

The review was restricted to 22 international human rights instruments, chosen in agreement between FIFA and the Saudi Arabian Football Federation (SAFF). 

Crucially, it excluded many human rights areas such as freedom of expression, enforced disappearances, and labor rights violations. Instead, the report relied heavily on Saudi Arabia's domestic laws as the basis for assessing human rights risks. 

Those laws often fail to align with global human rights standards, particularly regarding women's rights, freedom of expression, LGBTQ rights and the treatment of migrant workers.

Al-Hathloul, whose sister was imprisoned in Saudi Arabia for campaigning for the right of women to drive vehicles, lamented both FIFA's and AS&H Clifford Chance's failure to directly consult any human rights groups while compiling the report.

"It's becoming a pattern to really not consult human rights organizations," she explained. "Importantly, human rights organizations are not allowed to access Saudi Arabia. 

"So, for an institution like FIFA to do its due diligence, it's very difficult, and they should be contacting human rights organizations, who are unfortunately in the diaspora.

"ALQST is one of the only remaining organizations that really manages to get information from the ground, because even contacting human rights organizations is criminalized and considered a terrorist act." 

FIFA responsibilities 'circumvented'

In 2016, FIFA adopted the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and included a responsibility to respect human rights in Article 3 of its statutes.

Praised at the time for being the first global sports body to commit to due diligence on human rights, it should have led FIFA to a process of identifying what the human rights risks would be for one of its tournaments and then ensuring it was clear how bidding countries would address those risks.

However, Stephen Cockburn, head of Labor Rights and Sport at Amnesty International, believes that the process for both the 2030 and 2034 World Cups, which both have had sole bidders, has allowed FIFA to circumvent its responsibilities.

"We have always said Saudi Arabia has the right to bid for a World Cup like everyone else," Cockburn said. "They also need to meet the human rights standards expected of other bidding countries as well.

"Analyzing the bidding documents and the human rights strategies put forward clearly shows they are deeply flawed. They fail to identify the risk. They fail to deal with them.

"In many ways, FIFA has colluded in that by engineering for single bids (for the 2030 and 2034 World Cups) from the start, there was no consultation and there are no real minimum standards set out.

"For us to see Saudi Arabia awarded a medium risk and that it got such a high score, we described it as an astonishing whitewash. Now we've got to keep working to push FIFA and to push Saudi Arabia on the ground. Otherwise, there will be real and massive human costs."

Migrant deaths reach close to 900

The number of migrant workers in Saudi Arabia is estimated at around 13.4 million. It is expected to rise steeply with plans to construct 11 new stadiums and refurbish four existing ones over the next 10 years.

According to government data collected by Human Rights Watch, 884 Bangladeshi migrant worker deaths were recorded between January and July this year — long before Saudi Arabia officially was awarded the right to host the 2034 World Cup.

There are few labor laws in Saudi Arabia, with no minimum wage for migrants. They are often saddled with recruitment fee debts from when they arrive.

Meanwhile, the country's continued adherence to the Kafala system, a visa-sponsorship system used in several Gulf countries, leaves migrants dependent on their sponsors, regardless of any abuses they may suffer. The system is notorious for giving sponsors, who could be companies or private citizens, near total control over the migrants' employment and immigration status.

Al-Hathloul wonders if the global outcry would be greater if the migrant workers dying in Saudi Arabia came from the West, rather than the Global South.

"What we want as Saudis is for you to stand in solidarity with us," she said. "If the labor workers' deaths included Western people, I think that we would have heard about it a lot more.

"I think that most countries would have voted no (to the bid) if the political prisoners were not necessarily Arabs and Saudis.

"We are asking you to hear us, to stand in solidarity with us, and to differentiate between the people and the authorities."

Saudi organizers play down human rights concerns

A DW request to the Saudi authorities for comment on criticism of its human rights record in connection with its World Cup bid went unanswered. However, in a recent interview with the Reuters news agency, Hammad Albalawi, head of the 2034 bid, deflected such concerns.

"We have come a long way and there's still a long way to go. Our principle is to develop something that is right for us," he said. "Our journey started in 2016, not because of the World Cup bid."

Others inside the country appear unfazed by the international criticism, with Salman Al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi political analyst, saying any issues will be forgotten once the tournament begins.

"The 2022 Qatar World Cup taught the world that accusations often fade while achievements endure," he told DW. "Saudi Arabia will use this opportunity to showcase its transformative journey, breaking stereotypes and uniting fans globally under the banner of sportsmanship and cultural exchange."

Mohamed Farhan contributed to this report.

Edited by: Chuck Penfold

 The "Islamic State" (IS) , also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has been widely defeated across Syria, but still poses a threat to the nation's peaceful future. This, at least, is the estimation of outgoing US President Joe Biden, whose administration has ordered massive airstrikes against the extremist organization.

The arsenal of military aircraft involved in the campaign is a sign of just how seriously the Biden administration takes the threat. Heavy B-52 bombers have been involved in strikes on central parts of Syria, as were F-15 and A-10 Thunderbolt fighter jets.

On social media platform X, formerly Twitter, the US Central Command said these "strikes against the ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps" in central Syria were "part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS." It reported that it had conducted "dozens of precision airstrikes."

"There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria," General Michael Erik Kurilla was quoted as saying. "All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if them partner with or support ISIS in any way."

"We will help […] ensure stability in eastern Syria, protecting any personnel — our personnel against any threats," Biden said in a statement on Sunday. "Our mission against ISIS will be maintained, including the security of detention facilities where ISIS fighters are being held as prisoners." 

'Islamic State never entirely disappeared'

Middle East expert and political consultant Carsten Wieland said the so-called "Islamic State" never truly left Syria, even if it had been widely defeated.

"There are still various cells, including sleeper cells, in central and eastern Syria," he told DW. "And they certainly do pose a threat." That is particularly serious when there's a power vacuum, he said, adding that he thought the US had made the right decision.

"Now's the time to stabilize the forces that have taken over power in Syria as peacefully as possible, and not to burden them with another front in the form of the 'Islamic State.'"

IS got its start in Iraq

Founded in Iraq in the context of the 2003 US invasion, the "Islamic State" started spreading through Syria in 2012 amid the chaos of civil war. Here, the organization called itself the Al-Nusra Front. Its commander, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is the same man who now leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia that just overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar  Assad.

From an ideological standpoint, al-Golani had increasingly distanced himself from the Iraqi IS, and the rivalry between the two groups mounted in the subsequent years.

Ongoing attacks against civilians

Weakened by years of civil war, the Syrian armed forces did not have much left to counter the IS. Many soldiers lost their lives in battles and ambushes.

But from 2015, IS — just like the Al-Nusra Front — faced growing pressure from the US military. Their ranks were considerably weakened and they were forced to concede their claims to any territory in 2019. While several military and spiritual IS commanders, known as caliphs, managed to stay in power, the US was repeatedly successful in disabling cells.

Many IS members were imprisoned in northern Syria, where they remain in camps to this day.

Despite all this, several IS cells and camps stayed intact, especially in the Badia desert, along Syria's border with Iraq. Wieland said the cells often carried out attacks on the rural population, especially against those hunting for truffles in the area.

"Several dozen people have been killed," he said. Since other members act as sleeper cells and wait for possible orders, it's almost impossible to definitively destroy the group, he explained.

Al-Golani split from 'Islamic State' possible

In its current state, IS seems unable to spread very far, let alone reestablish control in its former territory. But following the toppling of Assad and the political upheaval, the notoriously brutal terror group might attempt to expand its sphere of influence again. This is why it's currently under such fierce attack.

Commenting on al-Golani's ties with IS, Wieland said it was quite conceivable that the HTS leader had indeed broken with its ideology. "The group reached various deals and agreements with local actors," he said. "That gives me hope for a constructive progression."

He also pointed out that he found it "remarkable that there have been no large massacres or revenge campaigns."

"Under the IS ideology, the past few days would have seen entirely different developments."

This article was originally written in German.

Correction, December 11, 2024: An earlier version of this article misspelled the name of Abu Mohammed al-Golani. DW apologizes for the error.

One of the most popular chants in Syria at the moment and among Syrians of the diaspora translates as "One, one, one, the Syrian people are one." As people come to terms with the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime, there are hopes that peace and stability are coming to the divided country.

It is impossible to get accurate and current data on Syria's varied population. This is due to a war that lasted over a decade and that observers believe may have ended with the recent toppling of the long-time dictator Assad after an offensive by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Those numbers there are differ wildly according to the source. Syria's Central Bureau of Statistics  said 29.2 million people lived in the country as of December 10, 2019. The World Factbook produced by the CIA, the US' foreign intelligence service, then estimates that by July 2021 around 20.4 million people were living in Syria. For its part, the World Bank put the population at around 23 million in 2023. Other estimates pin the number closer to 25 million.

While it is safe to assume that the true measure of Syria's overall population lies somewhere in between, the huge differences also highlight the impact of the devastating civil war that has left the country hugely fractured.

The United Nations (UN) estimates that the war has caused around 600,000 deaths. It says that 6 million Syrians fled the country and close to 7 million found themselves internally displaced.

Sunni, Shia, Alawites

Despite the lack of reliable demographic data, estimates on religious and ethnic minorities in Syria seem to be widely comparable.

Syria's population consists of some 70% Sunni Muslims who live all across the country.

They believe that the founder of Islam, Prophet Muhammad, did not explicitly declare a successor.

Shia Muslims, who make up 13% of Syria's population, believe that Muhammad designated his cousin and son-in-law Ali ibn Abi Talib as his successor and the first in a line of hereditary imams.  

The majority of Syria's Shia Muslims, including deposed leader Bashar Assad, are Alawites, a minority esoteric sect of Islam. 

Many of this minority live in Syria's western coastal region, particularly in the cities of Homs and Hama.

Apart from different Muslim groups, Syria is also home to religious minorities such as Christians, whose denominations include Greek Orthodox, Syriac Orthodox, Maronite, Syrian Catholic, Roman Catholic and Greek Catholic.

There are also many ethnic minorities in Syria, including Druze, Palestinian, Iraqi, Armenian, Greek, Assyrian, Circassian, Mandean and Turkoman groups. Most of them live in and around Damascus.

Kurdish-ruled Autonomous Administration

The Kurdish-ruled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, is home to Syria's largest minority, about 2.5 million Kurdish people. Some Kurds also live in and around Syria's capital Damascus.

A minority among the Kurds are the Yazidis, who mainly live in the Aleppo governorate.

Syria also hosts 12 refugee camps where 438,000 Palestinian refugees currently live, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

A sizable chunk of Syria's Sunni Muslims live in Syria's northeastern Idlib region, which in the past five years became the last opposition stronghold of the war-torn country. Run by HTS, it became the temporary home of some 4 million displaced Sunnis, Christians and Druze. 

They will be looking to return to their original villages and towns as HTS establishes its rule across the country. 

 Edited by: Anne Thomas

 

How was Syria's economy ravaged by the civil war?

Syria's economy was worth $67.5 billion (€63.9 billion) in 2011 — the same year that large-scale protests broke out against President Bashar Assad's regime, which sparked a rebel insurgency that escalated into a full-blown civil war. The country was placed 68th among 196 countries in global GDP rankings, comparable to Paraguay and Slovenia.

By last year, the economy had fallen to 129 in the league table, having shrunk by 85% to just $9 billion, according to World Bank estimates. That put the country on par with the likes of Chad and the Palestinian Territories.

Almost 14 years of conflict, international sanctions and the exodus of 4.82 million people  — more than a fifth of the country's population — has taken its toll on what was already one of the poorest nations in the Middle East.

A further 7 million Syrians, more than 30% of the population, remain internally displaced as of December, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

The conflict has devastated the country's infrastructure, causing lasting damage to electricity, transportation and health systems. Several cities, including Aleppo, Raqqa and Homs, have seen widespread destruction.

The conflict caused a significant devaluation in the Syrian pound, which led to a huge fall in purchasing power.

Last year, the country witnessed hyperinflation — very high and accelerating inflation, the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) said in a report published in June. The consumer price index (CPI) doubled compared to the previous year.

SCPR said more than half of Syrians were living in abject poverty, unable to secure basic food needs.

The two main pillars of the Syrian economy — oil and agriculture — were decimated by the war. Although tiny compared to other Middle East countries, Syria's oil exports accounted for about a quarter of government revenue in 2010. Food production contributed a similar amount to GDP.

Assad's regime lost control of most of its oil fields to rebel groups, including the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and later Kurdish-led forces.

International sanctions, meanwhile, severely restricted the government's ability to export oil. With oil output reduced to less than an estimated 9,000 barrels per day in regime-controlled areas last year, the country became heavily reliant on imports from Iran.

How quickly can Syria's economy be rebuilt?

Some Syria watchers have warned that it could take nearly 10 years for the country to return to its 2011 GDP level and two decades to be fully rebuilt. They are also concerned that Syria's prospects could worsen in the event of any further political instability.

Before the enormous task of rebuilding damaged cities, infrastructure, oil and agricultural sectors can get underway, more clarity is needed on Syria's incoming administration. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda-linked group that led the capture of Syria's capital Damascus at the weekend, says it is now working to form a new government. 

However, strict international sanctions on Syria remain in place. HTS is also under international sanctions as part of its designation by the United States and the United Nations as a terrorist organization. Western and Arab nations are concerned that the group may now seek to replace Assad's regime with a hardline Islamist government.

There have been immediate calls for those sanctions to be lifted or eased, but it could take several weeks or months.

Delaney Simon, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, wrote Monday on X, formerly Twitter, that Syria is "one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world," adding that leaving those curbs in place would be like "pulling the rug out from Syria just as it tries to stand."

Without a move to ease those curbs, investors will continue to avoid the war-ravaged nation and aid agencies could be wary of stepping in to provide vital humanitarian relief to the Syrian population.

On Sunday night, US President Joe Biden warned that Syria faced a period of "risk and uncertainty" and that the United States would help where it can.

"We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United Nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign" Syria "with a new constitution," he said.

US President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, said on this Truth Social network Sunday that Washington should "not get involved."

The Associated Press reported Monday that the Biden administration was weighing whether to delist HTS as a terrorist group, citing two senior White House officials. One of the officials said that HTS would be an "important component" in Syria's near-term future.

European Union spokesman Anouar El Anouni said Monday that Brussels was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders full stop" and that the bloc would "assess not just their words but also their actions."

Another priority in Syria's reconstruction is the eastern Deir el-Zour governorate, which holds around 40% of Syria's oil reserves and several gas fields. This province is currently under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

What will happen immediately?

HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani met overnight into Monday with Assad's former prime minister and vice president to discuss arrangements for a "transfer of power," according to a statement from the group.

After a nationwide curfew was ordered, most stores across Syria remained shut on Monday, but Reuters news agency cited a Syrian central bank source and two commercial bankers as saying that banks would reopen on Tuesday and staff had been asked to return to offices. Syria's currency would continue to be used, the sources said.

The oil ministry called on all employees in the sector to return to their workplaces starting on Tuesday, adding that protection would be provided to ensure their safety.

UN aid chief Tom Fletcher wrote Sunday on X that his agency would "respond wherever, whenever, [and] however we can, to support people in need, including reception centers — food, water, fuel, tents, blankets."

As several European countries said they would pause asylum claims for Syrian nationals, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, called for "patience and vigilance" on the issue of returning refugees.

Austria went further than most EU states, saying it was preparing an "orderly repatriation and deportation program" for Syrians.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

With the fall of the regime headed by dictator Bashar Assad in Syria, Israel is watching closely to see what happens next in Syria. Analysts say that changes in the neighboring country present both opportunities and risks.

Over the weekend, Israeli fighter jets attacked over 100 targets in Syria, monitoring groups said. The Israeli attacks targeted Syrian military infrastructure, including air bases, sites where rocket research was allegedly undertaken and where chemical weapons were supposedly stored. Among the targets was a location in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

"We attacked strategic weapons systems, like, for example, remaining chemical weapons, or long-range missiles and rockets, so that they will not fall in the hands of extremists," Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, told reporters in Jerusalem on Monday, outlining some of the risks that the country foresees.

Israeli troops then moved into a demilitarized buffer zone that separates Israel and Syria and which is patrolled by UN peacekeepers.

Reports suggested they then also moved beyond the buffer zone, which is about 40 kilometers from Damascus. This would mean they had moved further into Syria than they had ever done since the signing of a disengagement agreement between the two countries in 1974. 

On Tuesday morning, three sources told Reuters news agency that Israeli troops were now just 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) southwest of Damascus. An Israeli military spokesperson denied this. 

Israeli troops inside Syria?

Israel occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and annexed the region in 1981. Much of the international community, except the US, considers the area part of Syria and that Israel is occupying it illegally.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu explained the move was necessary because the Syrian military — ostensibly loyal to the Assad regime — had withdrawn from the area, which meant the "collapse of the Separation of Forces agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria."

Netanyahu said the move by Israeli troops was temporary and would only last until a new arrangement can be made.

"If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire," he added at a press conference in Jerusalem. "But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel."

But he then also said that "the Golan will be part of the State of Israel for eternity."

Growing criticism

There's been growing criticism of the reported Israeli move further into Syria. The UN said that any such move violates the 1974 agreement.

Israel's staunchest ally, the US, has confirmed that the move must only be temporary. The foreign minister of Jordan, Israel's northern neighbor, condemned the troop movement, and Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the Israeli troop movements meant that Israel appeared determined to "sabotage Syria's chances of restoring its security, stability and territorial integrity."

"Even if it's temporary, what is the purpose?" Eyal Zisser, an expert on Syria and vice rector of Tel Aviv University, told DW. "I can understand why they bomb and attack chemical weapons in Syria that were left by the regime. But to move troops ahead. The Syrian mood is not against Israel, is not directed in the Israeli direction at all. Nobody mentioned Israel. So why force yourself [into the picture]?"

What next for Israel and Syria?

"Assad's fall is the Middle Eastern equivalent to the fall of the Berlin Wall. Not because of him, a weak and failed dictator, but because of what he emblematizes. Hezbollah was badly beaten by Israel, and the Iranians took a licking as well — and they were afraid of a humiliating defeat in Syria," wrote Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper on Sunday.

He also noted that most of Israel's intelligence services, including military intelligence, were taken by surprise by the speed at which the Syrian regime collapsed.

"It was a surprise for everyone, especially for Bashar Assad, the Iranians, Russia and Hezbollah," Zisser, the Tel Aviv University expert, told DW. "One point that I would like to emphasize is that it was not a revolution or protest or revolt. It was an invasion of an army that was built by [Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed] al-Golani under the auspices of Turkey."

The "positive side" for Israel, he added, was that "Bashar Assad was a critical link between Iran and Hezbollah. And now Iran has no more Syrian backup, so it's a major development."

Weakening Hezbollah, Iran

The general view in Israel is that the advances by al-Golani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other allied groups would not have happened without Israel. 

Since the Gaza-based militant group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Israel had been working in a "systematic, measured and organized fashion" to dismantle Hamas' allies in the Iranian axis, Netanyahu said. He repeated his claim that Assad's fall was the "direct result of the heavy blows we landed on Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran" and said that Israel was "transforming the face of the Middle East."

"This would not have happened without Iran and Hezbollah's failure in Lebanon," Amos Harel wrote in Israeli daily Haaretz. "The rebels in Syria identified the weakness and confusion in the Iranian axis and rushed to hit its weak link."

Experts say the surprisingly swift end of the Assad regime was not just due to Israel's weakening of Iranian-allied groups. Russia has been an ally of the Assad family's regime for years, has an important naval base in Syria and in 2015, intervened in Syria's civil war with massive air campaigns. But Russia is currently bogged down in Ukraine, with many of its fighter jets moved back to eastern Europe. And the Russians seemed unwilling to intervene again, although they have since allowed Assad and his family, who are apparently in Moscow, to claim asylum in Russia.

While the dangers presented by Iran in Syria and Hezbollah may have decreased for the time being, the nature of the next Syrian government could still pose long-term challenges for Israel. Groups such as HTS are rooted in extremist ideology and their behavior is difficult to predict in the short term.

"In the long run, with Bashar Assad, you knew exactly what was happening, at least in the Golan Heights," said Zisser. "Now it is unknown. And people in Israel are worried, exactly like in Jordan or other countries."

The rapid fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria after the successful advance of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which translates to "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant," will reshuffle Syria's relations with its neighbors.

HTS governed Syria's last major oppositional stronghold in the country's northwestern region of Idlib for five years, but as it focuses on consolidating its powers in the Syrian capital Damascus, there is much debate as to whether it will be able to govern the whole country, particularly as there are a multitude of other rebel groups who will want to share power. 

"Arab leaders won't like the shattering of Syrian stability," Richard LeBaron, a non-resident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, wrote  on Monday. 

For years, Assad's key allies were Russia, Iran and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. The Arab League — a group of 22 countries — had reestablished ties with his regime in May 2023 after 12 years of isolating him as a consequence of his brutal suppression of the local population during Syria's civil war. 

But in the view of LeBaron, among Syria's Arab neighbors, only Qatar — which firmly opposed the Assad regime — might step forward to help with the reconstruction of the shattered, fragmented and economically weakened country.

Its new leaders will hope to see the lifting of international sanctions, but it remains to be seen which actors, apart from Qatar, might be willing to support them.

The HTS group, which was previously affiliated with US-designated terror outfit al-Qaida, was labeled a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2018. 

But its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani recently told US broadcaster CNN that he and other leaders in the group had evolved in their outlook and Islamic understanding with age, claiming that the extreme views from their youth had become more moderate over time.

On Monday, the AP news agency reported that he had said HTS would not impose dress codes on women or interfere with other personal freedoms. In recent years, the militia has shown tolerance towards religious minorities, such as Christians or the Druze community in areas under its control. 

Tense relations with neighbors

Syria's neighbors, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, have all fortified their border defenses.

"It is still too early to fully gauge the regional implications, but security concerns dominate the responses of neighboring states," Nanar Hawach, senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, an independent organization working to prevent wars, told DW.

Hawach said that Israel had welcomed the fall of Assad, who was a key ally of Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, "but it has still taken major steps in regards to security, including an incursion into Quneitra and Mount Hermon, where it established a buffer zone along the borders as part of security precautions." 

"Israel has also taken the opportunity to weaken the successor of the Assad regime militarily by bombing military targets, including air defenses and the al-Mazzeh Airport in Damascus," Hawach added.

The news and financial information provider Bloomberg also reported that US airstrikes had hit 75 targets of the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) extremist group in central Syria on Sunday, as US President Joe Biden cautioned that Assad's fall from power could open the door to a resurgence of Islamic extremism. 

Some 900 US troops are currently stationed in Syria to prevent IS from gaining strength again. They also support and train the the Kurdish Syrian People's Protection Unit (YPG) in the country's northeast. Analysts say that HTS and IS do not share common objectives, as the former only wants to control Syria and does not have the aim of buiding a global caliphate. 

Political stabilization and democracy in Syria?

Analysts say that regardless of the regional consequences, Syria's new rulers will have to focus on political stabilization if they want to be recognized by Turkey, the European Union and the United States.

"It is likely all of these entities will recognize the new [HTS] government on the condition it forms a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG, and does not support Hezbollah or Hamas," Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies at Australia's Charles Sturt University, told the online magazine The Conversation. 

"Given their unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to accept these conditions in exchange for aid and recognition," he added.

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), also told DW that while "the country has little experience with democratic institutions, and faces a great risk of disarray and even territorial fragmentation," this could be the "very reason" that this moment could bring forth "the beginning of a political settlement." 

In Ozcelik's view, with time and with a viable timetable, it is even possible to envisage the implementation of UN Resolution 2254, which calls for free and democratic elections in Syria.

"It will be essential that the process is as inclusive as possible with minimal external interference to support an indigenous Syrian roadmap," she told DW.

Displaced people start going home

In the wake of Assad's toppling, the Syrian population is on the move, as it has become possible to enter parts of Syria that were hitherto impossible to access. 

This is also the case in the region of Idlib  with its around 4 million mostly displaced Syrians who have lived under HTS control for the past five years. 

"We've recorded over 370,000 people arriving to Idlib from other governorates," David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, told DW.
 
"The displacement situation continues to be fluid as people are also returning home," he said, adding that "we remain committed to stay and deliver, and help the most vulnerable people of Syria through all modalities."

Correction: A quote by Mehmet Ozalp was incorrectly attributed in an earlier version of this story and corrected on December 10. 

In the aftermath of opposition rebel groups swiftly toppling Syria's government, Iran's leadership is struggling to come to terms with the loss of long-time ally Bashar Assad.

Iranian officials initially downplayed the situation, describing conditions in Syria as "normal." However, the fall of the Assad regime is likely to jeopardize Syria's role as a lynchpin of Tehran's regional strategy.

Syria has been a cornerstone of what Tehran describes as the "Shia Crescent," a geopolitical vision aimed at linking Iran to its allies in Lebanon and beyond.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once described Syria as the "pillar" of the "Axis of Resistance," a network of  Iranian-backed groups that oppose Israel and US influence, in the Middle East. Syria has also provided a corridor for Iranian weapons and other support to reach its proxies in Lebanon.

Assad's family ruled Syria with an iron fist for more than 50 years, and his fall represents a devastating setback for Tehran's vision.

Analysts argue that while Iran might continue supporting proxy groups in the region, its financial and military capacity has been significantly diminished.

Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a dissident Iranian political analyst, told DW that Tehran may now shift its strategy to maintain influence by preventing the establishment of a new, stable order in Syria.

This tactic would not be without precedent. Iran has previously supported destabilizing forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to counter US influence and project its own power. However, Tehran's current economic struggles would limit its ability to execute such strategies on the same scale. 

Iran spent billions on Assad

The cost of supporting Assad's government has been a source of growing public frustration in Iran. In 2020, Heshmatollah Falahatpishe, a former chair of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, revealed in a newspaper interview that Iran had spent approximately $30 billion (ca. €28 billion) to keep Assad in power.

This support from Iran, as well as from Russia, enabled Assad to gain the upper hand in Syria's civil war, during which he brutally suppressed opposition to his rule. Assad is accused of  war crimes, including indiscriminate attacks on civilians. 

In a recent post on X, the former Iranian lawmaker Bahram Parsaei emphasized that Iran's expenditure had bypassed parliamentary approval, and asked who would repay the debts now that Assad is gone.

Widespread economic hardship in Iran has fueled resentment among the population.

Many Iranians question why their government prioritizes foreign expenditure over addressing domestic needs, such as building schools and hospitals in impoverished regions such as Sistan and Baluchistan.

Undermining Tehran's propaganda

The fall of Assad has been met with cautious optimism by many Iranians, particularly those disillusioned with their own authoritarian government.

Reza Alijani, an Iranian political activist based in Paris, said Assad's fall allowed for parallels to be drawn between the oppressive regimes in Damascus and Tehran. 

He told DW that claims from the opposition forces in Syria, such as that they will ensure inclusive governance and make efforts to prevent chaos, could serve as potential models for Iran's future if the Islamic Republic should one day collapse.

However, he acknowledged the challenges of transitioning from dictatorship to democracy, especially in societies marked by decades of authoritarian rule. 

For years, Iranian propaganda has emphasized the success and unity of the "Axis of Resistance." Assad's fall undermines this narrative and could leave hardline supporters of the regime disillusioned.

Pragmatic factions within Iran's government are reportedly concerned that the loss of Syria could inspire similar uprisings at home. 

Saeed Peyvandi, an Iranian sociologist based in Paris, argued that the collapse of Assad's regime would expose the erosion of the "social contract" between the Iranian state and its citizens.

He told DW the growing chasm between the ruling elite and the public reflected a broader crisis of legitimacy that authoritarian regimes often face. 

Iran staying the course in the Middle East

Many analysts believe that Iran's approach is unlikely to change as long as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains in power.

However, some see potential parallels with historical cases of rapid political transformation. 

Erfan Sabati, a London-based researcher, told DW that Iran's current state was comparable to East Germany in the months before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

He said that authoritarian regimes often appeared unshakeable until they suddenly collapsed under the weight of public dissent and external pressures. 

The recent waves of protests in Iran, including the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, have demonstrated a growing disconnect between the Iranian government and its people.

However, it remains to be seen whether Iran's leadership can adapt to challenges at home and abroad, or whether it will cling to its current strategy.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn